What teams need to do to progress to semis
All eight teams have a shot at making the semi-finals. Here's what they need to do
Group 2
Like Pakistan, India too need to win to have any realistic chance of qualification. If India concede 160 and lose by more than three runs, their NRR will slip below that of South Africa. If India and Pakistan both win their matches, the margins of those results will decide which team goes through.
Pakistan's defeat to India - and the margin of that loss - has put their semi-final hopes in danger. Their NRR has dropped to -0.426, which is only marginally better than those of India and South Africa. If Pakistan lose to Australia, an Indian win will knock them out without NRR playing any part. Even if South Africa beat India in this scenario, Pakistan's chances remain bleak: if they lose their match by five runs (chasing 161), and if South Africa score 160 and beat India by the same margin, then Pakistan's NRR will be poorer than South Africa's.
With two huge wins in as many matches, Australia are the best-placed team in the tournament. For them to go out, both Pakistan and India will have to win their matches by around 40 runs (if they bat first and score 160).
South Africa are the only team that can be knocked out even before their match starts. For the second time in a row, they will be hoping Pakistan lose because if Pakistan win the first match on Tuesday, it will mean curtains for South Africa.
Group 1
With two wins in two matches, Sri Lanka are sitting pretty: not only do they have four points, their net run rate is also a comfortable 1.029. The only way for them to be eliminated is if they lose to England, and if West Indies beat New Zealand, with both matches being decided by big margins. For example, if England score 160 and beat Sri Lanka by 30 runs, and if West Indies score 160 and beat New Zealand by the same margin, then England and West Indies will qualify with better NRRs than Sri Lanka. However, the likelihood of both margins being such large ones is extremely small.
England's defeat against West Indies pegged them back, but they recovered well to beat New Zealand, and their NRR is the best among all teams after Sri Lanka. A victory against Sri Lanka, and a win for New Zealand against West Indies, will definitely see England through. However, if West Indies win, England will have to make sure they beat Sri Lanka by a sufficient margin to ensure their NRR is above that of West Indies.
The ideal result for West Indies will be for them to beat New Zealand, and for Sri Lanka to beat England, which will ensure West Indies qualify without run rates coming into play. A defeat will definitely knock West Indies out because of their poor NRR, but even a win may not be enough if England beat Sri Lanka. For instance, if West Indies score 160 and win by 25 runs, England will need to win their match by only eight runs to keep their NRR above West Indies'.
New Zealand are currently at the bottom of the group, but their NRR is a decent -0.268, thanks to their Super Over defeat against Sri Lanka. As mentioned earlier, if they beat West Indies by as little as five runs, and if Sri Lanka beat England by the same margin (with the winning teams in each game scoring 160), then New Zealand's NRR will be better than those of England and West Indies. Thus, even though New Zealand haven't won a match yet in the Super Eights, they have plenty to play for in their last game.
S Rajesh is stats editor of ESPNcricinfo. Follow him on Twitter