Fast-starting Australia favourites for Lord's win

For all their improvement in the last couple of years, England are 7/2 (4.50) to win the first Ashes Test against Australia, which begins at Lord's on Thursday

Simon Cambers

18-Jul-2005

Ricky Ponting's Australia have an outstanding record at Lord's and will want to start the Ashes series in style © Getty Images

On the eve of the first Test, the prices on both teams are holding firm, with Australia still favourites to win at Lord's at 9/10 (1.90). England, hoping to win the Ashes for the first time since 1986/7, are 7/2 (4.50) while the only change has been to the draw, which has drifted from 15/8 (2.87) to 2/1 (3.00).

That may because of the weather forecast, which is predicting showers over the weekend, but whichever way you look at it Australia are worthy favourites, having not lost a Test at Lord's since 1934. Four of the past five Tests between the two sides have gone Australia's way with Glenn McGrath taking eight wickets last time they visited, in 2001. England have won 42 of their 108 Tests there, including nine of their past 20.

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It's not all bad news though, as England have not lost the opening Test in a series since the Ashes opener in Brisbane two and a half years ago. In that time, they have won the first Test in seven of nine series, including the first game in their last five series. Winning against Bangladesh you'd expect, but wins against West Indies (twice), New Zealand and South Africa should not be sniffed at.

A good start is crucial if England are to be competitive and they do have some success over Australia to fall back on, having beaten Mark Taylor's side in the opener at Edgbaston in 1997. Of course Australia rebounded to win the series, but this England team has a much better mentality than those of the past few years and they take some stopping when they get on top.

However, it's not like Australia are slow starters either. Far from it. In fact, they've won an astonishing 19 and drawn two of their past 21 opening Tests, and you have to go back to 1999 and Kandy to find the last time they lost first time out, when Sri Lanka took advantage of an horrendous collision between Steve Waugh and Jason Gillespie to claim victory.

The recent war-of-words between both teams has merely added more spice to the series, but it would take a brave man to bet against Australia winning at Lord's, providing the weather holds.

Cambers' Call: Australia to win first Test - 9/10 (1.90)

Please note that odds are correct at time of publication and are subject to change.

Simon Cambers is Cricinfo's new betting correspondent