Betting Blog

Overton the outside bet for Ashes triumph

The strength of England's and Australia's bowling attacks is sure to determine the destiny of the urn this winter

James Anderson celebrates his fifth wicket, England v West Indies, 3rd Investec Test, Lord's, 3rd day, September 9, 2017

James Anderson celebrates his fifth wicket  •  AFP

It takes 20 wickets to win a Test match, so no matter who prevails across a five-match series in this winter's Ashes, the strength of England's and Australia's bowling attacks is sure to determine the destiny of the urn. And with that in mind, Bet365 appear to have Australia's noses in front in the pre-series betting.
Mitchell Starc is the main man of Australia's attack. Tall, rapid, and from an awkward left-arm line, there could be shades of Bruce Reid in 1990-91 if he really gets stuck in to England's batting. He leads the market at 9/4, ahead of his anticipated new-ball partner Josh Hazlewood, at 10/3.
England, however, have two world-class veterans leading their charge, both of whom have played a role in four winning Ashes campaigns. Granted, neither man could do much to stem the tide on the last tour of Australia in 2013-14, but James Anderson and Stuart Broad remain high-quality campaigners who can pull matchwinning spells out of the bag at any given moment.
Anderson, in some of the best form of his remarkable career, is England's market-leader at 4/1, with Broad following him at 6/1, with the memories of his 8 for 15 in the last home Ashes in 2015 still fresh in the mind. Australia's Pat Cummins - fast but fragile - is 13/2, while Nathan Lyon, Australia's senior spinner, is 15/2, ahead of England's own offie, Moeen Ali, at 8/1.
The value, such as it is, may reside further down the field. Could Mason Crane, England's fledging leggie, be worth a punt at 100/1? Probably not, in all honesty, seeing as one of his likelier opportunities, Adelaide, could be a swing-bowler's venue under the lights and with the pink ball.
Craig Overton, on the other hand, is definitely worth a shout at 66/1. He is far likelier to start the series at the Gabba in Ben Stokes' probable absence, and once he gets his opportunity, who knows what he'll make of it. And what of Stokes himself? He is an intriguing 20/1 to be the top wicket-taker. Now that would be a redemption tale and a half.