Cricket World Cup ‘07: An early set of predictions

Just as Lahar did before the Indo-WI Test series, it is my turn now to put my head on the chopping block. I do so by airing a comment on the World Cup 2007 prospects of the leading ODI teams with brief notings (most of those end up with an emphasis on bowling). I realise that the event is way too distant in the future to be discussed with any thoroughness. But what the heck - no one’s going to hang me if I am wrong with these predictions!

There’s always some fun in there for you if you are playing The Predictor – you enjoy the outcome either way. If you end up right with some of them you can always pull up your collar to flaunt that ‘I told U so’ printed in bold on it. For the ones that prove you wrong, it is again fun to revisit the prediction and find the assumed parameters that got altered after you made the prediction. The prediction is only upto semi final qualifications, so that limits my freedom within a reasonable territory.

I am sure to come back and reminisce upon this one just before the 2007 World Cup (surely, and I may even make a fresh set of predictions then to challenge this one!) and re-read it again after the 2007 World Cup is over. Likewise I invite reader friends to leave seeds of their wildest thoughts on the matter here and reap some fun for themselves later on.

Most fun comes from reading a wild-thought post when a number of friends add their thoughts and comments of all kinds, shades and sizes to your thought. The resultant collage is often wonderful to come back to for pure fun.

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New Zealand: Both Test and One-Day fortunes of this team swing as if it were a centre-of-gravity toy named “Shane Bond’s fitness”. In order to make an impact the team needs one or two of their numerous Man Fridays in batting and bowling departments to show up as Robinson Crusoe during the big event.

Sri Lanka: Discussed recently in detail here. This is a team with its sight firmly on glory. Fielding reflects the current attitude of sub-continent teams like no words ever can and Sri Lanka are outta-this-world with that aspect right now. Murali looks as relentless as ever and Vaas has declared his farewell with the big event. We can expect them to breathe fire then.

England: This is an utterly unpredictable setup (the word ‘team’ never presented itself) today. Memories of their performances in last year’s Natwest and Ashes prevent cricket lovers from losing hope and writing them off just yet, even after than 0-5 nightmare loss against Sri Lanka. Achievement of potential in sport though has a lot to do with fitness and any progress in the World Cup will be related to the percentage of main players like Flintoff, Vaughan and Hoggard that report fit after Ashes 2006-07.

Australia: “Pack hunting” advantage is gone from the bowling of the awesome side that conquered South Africa in 2003 and lot depends on Lee these days. Rest is still the best, with Ponting “The Dream: Extended” better than the best.

South Africa: Steadily improving in ODI’s over the last year, and recently drove in 438 stakes to slay the demon that was the “chokers” tag. Good performances in the Sri Lanka tri-series tournament and ICC trophy can prop them up as dark horses as similar conditions await them in the West Indies.

Pakistan: A B-I-G team in this form of the game anywhere, anytime. The longest ODI batting lineup in the world. Assuming their bowling is back to full strength by early next year, only their often-ragged catching and Inzamam’s laidback captaincy at crucial moments can be worrisome leaks in the boat that takes them to another WC semi final appearance.

Now we come to the two teams I have followed with regularity over the last month.

West Indies: Home advantage can see them through to Super Six. Sounds silly but much of the progress they make will depend on how many opposition middle order batsmen allow their medium pacers to dish out those brilliantly disguised slower balls and earn wickets off them.

However their new fast bowlers Fidel Edwards and Jerome Taylor are smart long-term prospects and may even be a handful in 2007 if we see quick wickets at some World Cup venues; development of such talents demand more attention than occasional first class matches and exposure to first class cricket in other countries should be arranged to help them hone their skills. [e.g. Outside of the 24 Tests he played in 3 years, Fidel Edwards has played only 14 first class matches during the four plus years till date since his first class debut].

Dave Mohammad looked a nice chinaman bowling prospect for the future. Everything else, barring those and Sarwan and Lara, is pretty much in the middle zone.

India: Where does that last sentence put India who just lost an ODI series 4-1 to them? Not much needs to be read in there actually. Their key one-day players Irfan Pathan and Mahendra Dhoni lost form in the last series. India have come back with a whole year’s task pending on those West Indian slower balls, as well as the ones they are going to surely face NOW from other teams.

They also have other areas needing attention. India played their last ODI tournament almost a year ago in Zimbabwe; since then they have only played 2-team series. The Indian fielding can do with some sprucing up. Also, most of India’s matches of late have been day affairs.

So there’s plenty of ‘vision-chasing’ scheduled for the ‘greatest chasers of the world’ in the next half-year. That spot in the semi finals seems ever so little less of a certainty now than it was before a fateful Dwayne Bravo yorker sneaked in through Yuvraj Singh’s gate to decide a match.

I summarise my early prediction for CWC’07:

Semis: Australia, Sri Lanka, India and Pakistan (in that order) Super six: South Africa and one of West Indies / England