General

Draw now most likely in Brisbane

England were brilliant on day four of the opening Test in Brisbane and unless they suffer some sort of monumental collapse, it looks more than likely that they and Australia will have to settle for a draw.

Simon Cambers
22-Nov-2010
Alastair Cook will have a double-century in his mind when he resumes on 132 on the final day  •  Getty Images

Alastair Cook will have a double-century in his mind when he resumes on 132 on the final day  •  Getty Images

England were brilliant on day four of the opening Test in Brisbane and unless they suffer some sort of monumental collapse, it looks more than likely that they and Australia will have to settle for a draw.
England lead by 88 with nine second-innings wickets standing and though an Australia win would seem possible, Bet365 certainly the draw is the most likely outcome for they have slashed it to 1/20, which is pretty much unbackable.
Australia are 12/1 to win it and England 22/1 but the tourists will take no risks, knowing that escaping from fortress Brisbane with a draw would be a fine result and one that could set them up to go on to win the series.
Alastair Cook, unbeaten on 132 overnight, is 5/6 to go on to make 173 or more and 11/5 to go on to make a double-century. Jonathan Trott, who will resume on 54, is 5/6 to take his score to 95 or more and just evens to score a century of his own.
England are 5/6 to move on from 309-1 to a score of 470 or better and that has to be a pretty good bet, because if they can they will surely bat well into the afternoon, perhaps as long as tea in an effort to secure the draw.
Original preview
Australia have not lost a Test in Brisbane since 1988 and England haven't won the Ashes Down Under since 1986/7. But with the hosts having suffered a difficult build-up and England looking in good form, things could be about to change and the 1st Test, which begins in Brisbane on Thursday, could be the key to the whole series.
With all the problems the Aussies have had going into this Ashes series, it's actually quite surprising that they are still favourites with the bookies, but it's by the slenderest of margins. Bet365 make them just 11/10 to win the match, with England only 2/1 and the draw a 10/3 chance.
Having eventually whittled down their 17-man squad, the Aussies received good news when vice-captain Michael Clarke was passed fit after a recent back problem but Doug Bollinger has not made it and is replaced by Peter Siddle, which I see as a blow to their chances, for he is a consistent, impressive bowler.
But the real truth going into the match is that England could not have prepared any better or be in any better spirits. All the batsmen have scored some runs, all the bowlers have taken wickets and so far, there have been no sign of any injuries. It's enough to make England fans wince at the thought that it's all too perfect, so many times have they been disappointed over the past two decades, but something tells me that it might be different this time round.
Australia have not lost in Brisbane since they went down to a still-rampant West Indies side there in 1988 and over the past 20 years they have been absolutely unbeatable there, with only five draws in that time, one of which came against England in 1998 when the weather came to the tourists' rescue.
Now I think that England are good enough to win this series even if they lose the opener, but it's also certain that they will be going all out to get something out of this match because if they emerge from it with a draw or even a win, then they will be buoyant and hard to stop, while Australia may just wonder what they can do.
It goes without saying that Australia should not be underestimated, especially when their backs are to the walls, but they are nowhere near as good as they were four years ago, when Matthew Hayden, Justin Langer and Adam Gilchrist were still in the top seven and when Shane Warne and Glenn McGrath were still there.
Removing those five is bound to affect any side and Australia are a side in transition. They still have talented players and in Ricky Ponting one of the best batsmen in history but their bowling attack is weak and if England remain solid, and do the simple things well, then I find it hard to see how the Aussies will take 20 wickets.
An awful lot is said about the effect of the Brisbane pitch, about how the England players will still struggle to cope, and that's all possibly true. But this Australia team is distinctly average and there won't be much in any of these matches, providing England cope with the pressure of being tipped as winners of the series for the first time in a generation.
In the batting markets, it's a case of the usual suspects. Ponting and Shane Watson share favouritism at 10/3 to top-score in the first innings, with Simon Katich 4/1, Clarke 9/2 and Michael Hussey 11/2. For England, captain Andrew Strauss is favourite at 10/3, just ahead of Kevin Pietersen at 7/2, with Jonathan Trott 4/1, Alastair Cook 9/2 and Ian Bell 11/2, with Paul Collingwood a big price at 13/2.
It may seem trite but any of the three results is possible, though the way Australia go about their business makes draws unlikely unless one side is battling for survival all the way through. The Aussies are under pressure to show they can still cut it; England are under pressure to get off to a good start. At the prices, England are the value. It's going to be great.
Cambers' Call
England to win 1st Test v Australia - 15/8 bet365
Please note that odds are correct at time of publication and are subject to change.

Simon Cambers is Cricinfo's betting correspondent