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Luck Index - Hasan Ali's drop costs Pakistan 15 priceless runs

Removal of set batter, with lesser hitters to come, could have made the difference

S Rajesh
S Rajesh
Matthew Wade capitalised on his reprieve by picking off three consecutive sixes  •  Getty Images

Matthew Wade capitalised on his reprieve by picking off three consecutive sixes  •  Getty Images

18.3 Dropped! Hasan Ali's not having the greatest of games here. Fullish, angling into the stumps, and Wade swings too early at his slog, toe-ends it in the air to the left of deep midwicket, where Hasan runs too quickly, almost overruns the ball, and lets it slip through his fingers
That was ESPNcricinfo's ball-by-ball commentary for the third ball of the 19th over, when Matthew Wade, then on 21 off 13, was given a life by Hasan Ali. You could sense that it could be a vital drop, and it was confirmed emphatically when Wade smoked the next three balls for sixes to end the contest without even the need for a 20th over.
How costly was that missed chance?
According to ESPNcricinfo's Luck Index, that error cost Pakistan 15 runs. Wade took two runs off the ball off which he was dropped, and then hit 18 off the next three, which means 20 runs were scored off four balls. Luck Index estimates that those four balls would have only gone for five runs had the catch been taken.
This calculation is done by assuming that Wade would have been dismissed off that ball, and three balls he played subsequently would have been played by Pat Cummins and Marcus Stoinis, who was the non-striker. Based on the scoring patterns of these batters, Luck Index estimates that five runs would have been scored off those three balls, which would have left Australia needing 15 from the last over. That, the algorithm estimates, would have been too much for the remaining batters to achieve.
Babar Azam, the Pakistan captain, made a mention of that error in his post-match comments, and seeing the impact of that missed opportunity, it's not difficult to see why.

S Rajesh is stats editor of ESPNcricinfo. @rajeshstats