IPL 2018 May 16, 2018

Qualification scenarios: What if Mumbai beat Kings XI?


With only seven league games left in the season, ESPNcricinfo looks at how playoff qualification scenarios will be affected by the result of Wednesday's game between Mumbai Indians (10 points, 0.405 net run rate) and Kings XI Punjab (12 points, -0.518 NRR).

If Kings XI Punjab win

  • Mumbai Indians will be knocked out, as four teams will already be on 14 or more points, while Mumbai will be on 10 with a game to go. Thus Kings XI, Knight Riders, Rajasthan Royals and Royal Challengers Bangalore will be in contention for the last two spots.
  • Kings XI will move up to 14, but still won't be assured of qualification, due to their poor net run rate. Knight Riders, and one of Rajasthan Royals or Royal Challengers could still take the last two spots ahead of them. Kings XI's last game, against Chennai Super Kings, is also the last match of the league stage, so they will have the advantage of knowing exactly what will be required for qualification.
  • Knight Riders will be through if they win their last game, but even if they lose, they can go through if other results go their way. Since their NRR is much better than Royals', they will have a good chance of qualification if Royals beat Royal Challengers.
  • Royals will need to win their last game, and hope that Kings XI lose to Super Kings, and Royal Challengers don't win both matches. Royal Challengers will need to win their last two, and hope that at least one of Kings XI and Knight Riders don't finish on 16.

If Mumbai Indians win

  • Mumbai keep their qualification hopes alive. If they beat Daredevils in their last game, they will have a great chance of making the playoffs, but even if they lose, they could still take fourth place on 12 points. For that to happen, Kings XI and Royals will both have to lose their last matches, and Royal Challengers will have to lose to Sunrisers. Then, four teams - Mumbai, Kings XI, Royal Challengers and Royals - will be on 12, with Mumbai likely to be leading on NRR.
  • For Kings XI to go through, they will have to win their last game, and hope that other results go their way. That includes Mumbai losing to Daredevils, Royals losing to Royal Challengers, who in turn should have lost to Sunrisers. Then Kings XI will have 14, while Mumbai, Royals and Royal Challengers will have 12 each.
  • Royals will have to win their last game, and then hope that neither Mumbai nor Royal Challengers go on to 14.
  • Knight Riders will then be assured of finishing ahead of Kings XI, but they could still miss out if they lose to Sunrisers, and if Mumbai and Royal Challengers finish on 14.
  • Royal Challengers might have an outside chance of going past Mumbai on NRR if they manage another huge win like they did against Kings XI, but otherwise their best chance will be to win their last two games, get to 14, and then hope that Mumbai lose to Daredevils, or Knight Riders lose their last game and stay on 14.

S Rajesh is stats editor of ESPNcricinfo. @rajeshstats