Championship set for absorbing finish

Edgbaston, Old Trafford or Chester-le-Street. Where will the Championship pennant be flying next season? We'll know by Thursday evening, but at the start of the final round of matches it's too close to call after Lancashire's last-gasp victory against Hampshire closed the gap on leaders Warwickshire to three points.

However, Warwickshire remain favourites - if only just - with their narrow advantage meaning that if they win and take 22 points from their match at Southampton (a mark that will be reached by getting three batting points and a full bowling allocation in a victory) that title will be theirs regardless of what happens elsewhere. That, though, is far tighter than it would have been if Simon Kerrigan hadn't taken his ninth wicket late on Saturday afternoon.

If Lancashire and Warwickshire finish level on points the Championship will be Lancashire's for the first time in 77 years because they have the better head-to-head record. It was the same tie-breaker that handed Nottinghamshire the prize ahead of Somerset last season. Title challenges really do come down to the odd point here and there; such small margins as a slow over-rate here or a missed bowling point there at the end of a marathon 16 matches.

After events at the weekend Durham are a distant third favourites as they need favours at Southampton and Taunton. However, they have recent experience of winning titles and when they secured their maiden Championship in 2008 it was after Nottinghamshire bottled their challenge in the final round. Funny things happen when the pressure is on, so all Durham can do is go out and beat Worcestershire convincingly.

Whoever takes the title will deserve it. Warwickshire have a strong batting line-up and seam-bowling unit, Lancashire have a blend of youth, experience and belief while Durham have a deep squad that enables them to compete without Steve Harmison and Liam Plunkett. Warwickshire (2004) and Durham (2008, 2009) have Championship titles that the current generation can remember, but Lancashire have, literally, waited a lifetime since their last outright success in 1934.

"It's a great game to be involved in and we've earned the right to be there," Peter Moores, the Lancashire coach, said of the trip to Taunton. "Winning nine games in a season is a lot, bouncing back time and time again both during games and now after that Worcestershire defeat which was a tough one. By hook or by crook we find a way to stay in most games and we did it again [at Aigburth]. All the way through someone has come up with something. We'll go there looking forward to it."

It's a very different story for the other Roses county. At the bottom of the table Yorkshire are all-but relegated, despite their victory against Somerset at Headingley, and their fate will be confirmed if Worcestershire get one point against Durham while they can also condemn Hampshire if they score seven points.

There is still a bun fight to see who will replace the two teams that do head down. Northamptonshire, for so long the frontrunners in Division Two, have slipped badly in the final month of the season. Middlesex now sit top and are well placed to go up especially as they face bottom team Leicestershire. Surrey, however, are the form side and have peaked at the right time while Northamptonshire face Gloucestershire who are also in the mix with nine points separating second to fourth place. It's a week to keep that table handy.