Jaiswal hundred, Siraj's late strike make India favourites

The fate of this Anderson-Tendulkar Trophy will be sealed at The Oval on Sunday. England need another 324 runs to pull off the second-biggest run chase in their history and win 3-1; India need eight wickets - or nine, in the improbable event that Chris Woakes walks out to bat one-handed - to square the series. The draw is no longer on the table.

India are the favourites, and owe that status to four men: Yashasvi Jaiswal, who scored his sixth century, and the first of the match; Akash Deep, the nightwatcher whose maiden Test fifty wore England's seamers down; Ravindra Jadeja, who passed 500 runs for the series; and Washington Sundar, whose late blitz took the target from 335 to 374 inside five overs.

England have been here before. They chased 371 in the first Test of this series with five wickets in hand, and cruised to 378 against India at Edgbaston three years ago without breaking a sweat. A punchy opening stand between Zak Crawley and Ben Duckett shaved 50 runs off the target as the shadows lengthened, and England will not be overawed by scoreboard pressure.

But Crawley's dismissal in the final over of the day swung the pendulum firmly in India's favour. It was Mohammed Siraj, the last seamer standing in this series, who delivered a moment of high skill and high drama. With two balls remaining, Siraj pushed Jaiswal back to deep square leg, a bluff to mask the searing 84mph/135kph yorker which followed, and crashed into off stump.

It will be a huge test of both teams' character, skill and resilience as the series heads into its 24th - and surely final - day. A draw would be a superb achievement for India under new leadership, not least from 2-1 down and on the ropes in Manchester; for England, a series win would be their first against a "big three" opponent under Ben Stokes and Brendon McCullum.

In Woakes' absence, this was a brutally tough day for their three greenhorn seamers, Gus Atkinson, Josh Tongue and Jamie Overton, who bowled 79 out of 88 overs between them in India's second innings. Ollie Pope did his best to rotate them but the workload was immense, particularly without a specialist spinner. Their cause was not helped by six dropped catches, and India profited from their profligacy.

Akash Deep was the unlikely protagonist of the morning session, seizing an opportunity to chance his arm after seeing out two balls as nightwatcher on Friday evening. He popped the third ball of the day over mid-on for four and decided to keep on swinging, punching the air and thumping his chest when he reached 50 for only the second time in his professional career.

England could have had him twice in two balls: they were convinced that Tongue had trapped him lbw, only for the DRS to uphold umpire Ahsan Raza's not-out call, and Crawley dropped Tongue's follow-up at third slip. By the time his leading edge was pouched by Atkinson at point off Overton, Akash Deep had added 107 in partnership with Jaiswal.

Akash Deep's gleeful hitting cast Jaiswal in an unfamiliar role, playing in his partner's slipstream. But he continued to inflict death by a thousand cuts on England's seamers, scoring heavily behind square on the off side and seizing on any width offered. He reached his hundred after lunch by pinching a single into that very same region, bookending his first tour of England with centuries.

By that stage, he had lost another partner. Shubman Gill's fine series ended with the first ball after lunch, which nipped back off the seam and thumped into his knee roll to give Atkinson his seventh of the match. His overall aggregate - 754 - was second only to Sunil Gavaskar among Indian batters in a Test series, but his highest score in four innings in London was just 21.

Karun Nair soon became Atkinson's eighth victim of the Test, edging behind for 17. Nair was struck on the glove first-ball, and dropped by Harry Brook - whose view was obscured by Crawley diving across him - on 12 before failing to account for Atkinson's extra bounce. It seems sadly inevitable that his Test comeback will also prove to be his farewell.

Dropped twice on Friday evening, Jaiswal got a third life from Duckett at leg gully, but holed out to deep point for 118 soon after. But India's lead continued to swell: Jadeja successfully overturned an lbw decision after being struck flush on the right boot and added exactly 50 for the seventh wicket with Dhruv Jurel, as England finally resorted to their occasional spinners.

The pitch had clearly flattened out from the first two days but still offered something to work with. Overton managed to get a 76-over-old ball to swing away and trap Jurel lbw, and Tongue threatened to end the innings quickly: Brook finally held onto one when Jadeja steered to him on 53, and Siraj was distraught when given out lbw off the inside edge, with India out of reviews.

But Washington went down swinging, as though Brook's advice in Manchester to "get on with it" was ringing in his ears. He hauled four leg-side sixes in 12 balls, the last of which brought up a 39-ball fifty. By the time he miscued to Crawley at midwicket to give Tongue his fifth wicket, he and Prasidh Krishna (0 off 2) had put on 39 vital runs for the 10th wicket.

Duckett and Crawley were left with 14 overs to lay a foundation for England, and Gill was clearly desperate to avoid a repeat of their freewheeling stand in the first innings, posting a deep point from the outset to stem the flow of runs. If it initially seemed curious that Siraj was held back to first change, then his crucial strike vindicated Gill's decision to give him a single, late burst.