Influence of wides and no balls on Test bowler averages

The previous article was a huge data-rich one involving bowler-pairs. Even understanding the significance of data presented there would have taken some time. This is also a bowler-centric article but much simpler to read and understand, if not in analysis. I must thank Arijit Dasgupta for this suggestion.

A few days after India won the World Cup during 1983, it was decided that the wides and no balls would be debited to the bowler analysis. It was a simple idea but had significant problems in execution and it took more than 2 years for the first scorecards to be rolled out with the wides/no balls information shown against the bowler's analysis. It is possible that the bowlers and wides were debited to the bowlers from Test # 961 onwards (India-Pakistan match played at Bangalore during September 1983). However the debited numbers were not shown against the bowler analysis until Test # 1029 (Australia-New Zealand Test match at Brisbane starting on 8 November 1985).

So this is our real cut-off Test. So one can say that the cut-off is data-driven than law-implementation-driven especially as the 1983-87 period is a grey area. Milind's query to MCC on this has resulted in a vague unclear answer. The only assumption, and a valid one, is that where wides/no balls have been shown against a bowler analysis, these are included in the bowling analysis runs.

Arijit's idea was that this single law change had a profound influence on the Bowling averages of bowlers over the past 25 plus years and that I should study this in depth. This seemed an excellent idea and I have been working on it for the past month. It turned out to be a complex exercise, because of the reasons outlined below.

This analysis concentrates almost totally on the post-1985 period, or more correctly the post-T1029 period. For the pre-T1029 period, I will present a single summary of the wides/no balls which would have been debited to the bowlers. This will give an idea of the possible increase in bowling averages.

For the first 1028 Tests the total number of wides/no balls stands at 15353 and the number of bowler wickets at 31727. This leads to a notional increase of 0.48 runs per wicket. For the next 1027 Tests the total number of wides/no balls stands at 29118 and the number of bowler wickets at 31449. This has led to an increase of 0.93 runs per wicket. This clearly shows a doubling of the number of wides/no balls post-T1029. This may be due to the stricter interpretation of extras-related rules, stricter handling of short balls, significant law changes and the increase in declaring a ball wide owing to the influence of ODIs.

Before anything, let me be clear that the overriding consideration in all these adjustments is simply that Team wides/no balls are king. These would remain sacrosanct. All adjustments will be done only with the bowler level wides/no balls. With this guiding principle I have ensured that the Team scores remain untouched. The salient points of this analysis are outlined below.

1. All scorecards, including the Cricinfo ones, do not include full information about the number of deliveries that were declared wide/no ball and how many runs were scored off these deliveries. When 5 wides are conceded, 5 runs are added properly to the team score, extras total, no balls tally in the team extras line and bowler runs conceded. However, somewhat inconsistently, this is shown as only 1 wide delivery against the bowler. Same is true for the rare case where 5 runs are scored off a no ball. As an example, please peruse the very last innings scorecard. Test # 2055, India-New Zealand Test at Bangalore. In the Indian second innings, Southee bowled a 5-ball wide in the team's second over. The extras shows 5 wides, team total and bowler runs are increased by 5 runs but only 1 wide is shown against Southee in the bowling analysis.

2. Even after Test # 1029, there are matches in which no wides and no balls are shown against the bowler analysis even though there are team wides and no balls. Nothing can be done about these and such Test matches are kept out of these calculations.

3. There are matches in which the team wides/no balls are less than the sum of the bowler wides/no balls. The adjustment here is simple. Reduce the bowler wides/no balls proportionately to match the team wides/no balls. Very logical and correct. If there is something wrongly done, I would rather assume that all mistakes are restricted to the bowler figures rather than the team numbers.

4. Now comes the difficult part. The team wides/no balls are higher than the sum of the bowler wides/no balls. This is a highly nuanced situation. There are many types of differences so I had to use a different method for each adjustment.

• Situations such as team line showing 5/6/7/8... wides/no balls and only one bowler 's analysis showing 1/2/3/4... wide/no ball. No problems since these are similar to the Southee situation. Just make the specific bowler's wides/no balls as 5 or 6 or whatever. Could as well be team showing 10 wides and bowler showing 2 wides. The key is an exact difference of multiple of 4 wides/no balls.
  
• Situations where the difference is x wides but more than one bowler has bowled the wides. I have taken a logical, if not the most accurate approach that the difference will be attributed to the bowler who has bowled most wides. For instance, if the team has 5 wides and two bowlers have bowled 1 and 2 wides, the additional 2 wides are allotted to the bowler who has captured 2 wides. May not be perfect but there is a good chance that it is correct.
  
• Sometimes there is no pattern. Team has been debited 8 wides and the bowler total is 3 wides. Nothing can be done about it and it is left as it is.
  
• For recent matches there was the option of perusing the commentary. However it is a thankless option and there is no way I could have done it because of the difficulty and the time required. 130 overs are shown in three screens and perusal of each delivery was needed. Browser search of wide is useless because of the "wide of point" type of commentary.
  
• In a few cases I have perused the scorecards and taken an intuitive and informed decision. By now I had got a clear idea of the bowler characteristics.

5. At the end of about a week's tough work, I had improved the bowler level byes/no balls availability from about 21000 to just over 22800. This works to about 78% of the total tally of wides/no balls for this period of 29000+ and represents a major successful move forward. The overall impact might only be a reasonably small figure but the impact on individual bowlers sometimes goes as high as 7%. The analysis from this point onwards is a simple one and my tables indicate the current average, adjusted average and the % difference. Multiple tables are shown so that we can get different insights.

In view of my own physical condition, I am not going to offer detailed comments on the tables. I will present all the tables and at the end, summarise what I perceive are the key points. Readers can always contribute their bit and make this a discussion forum. Let me also say that I will publish many more comments without any response from me. I have to necessarily cut the amount of work I do. More often than not, I have to let my silence speak.

Since it is not possible to identify the wides/no balls conceded by the pre-T1029 bowlers, it is not possible to increase their averages. So the only fair method of comparison will be a notional reduction of the post-T1029 bowlers' averages.

75+ wickets bowlers ordered by reduction % of bowling average

Bowler	Type	Ctry	Start	End	Mats	Wkts	Avge	WDs	NBs	Total	AdjAvge	% chg
Malinga L.S	RFM	Slk	2004	2010	30	101	33.16	35	229	264	30.54	7.88%
Reiffel P.R	RFM	Aus	1992	1998	35	104	26.96	5	198	203	25.01	7.24%
Collins P.T	LFM	Win	1999	2006	32	106	34.62	12	235	247	32.29	6.73%
Edwards F.H	RF	Win	2003	2012	54	158	38.38	69	338	407	35.80	6.71%
Lee B	RF	Aus	1999	2008	76	310	30.82	53	587	640	28.75	6.70%
Pollock S.M	RFM	Saf	1995	2008	108	421	23.12	28	602	630	21.62	6.47%
Fernando	RFM	Slk	2000	2012	40	100	37.84	34	210	244	35.40	6.45%
Kasprowicz	RFM	Aus	1996	2006	38	113	32.88	3	219	222	30.91	5.98%
Morkel M	RF	Saf	2006	2012	42	150	30.37	52	215	267	28.59	5.86%
Roach K.A.J	RF	Win	2009	2012	21	82	27.70	20	113	133	26.07	5.86%
Flintoff A	RFM	Eng	1998	2009	79	226	32.79	35	366	401	31.01	5.41%
ShoaibAkhtar	RF	Pak	1997	2007	46	178	25.69	17	227	244	24.32	5.34%
Mohd Sami	RF	Pak	2001	2012	36	85	52.74	30	209	239	49.93	5.33%
Ambrose	RF	Win	1988	2000	98	405	20.99	6	422	428	19.93	5.04%
Abdur Razzaq	RFM	Pak	1999	2006	46	100	36.93	10	175	185	35.08	5.01%
Srinath J	RFM	Ind	1991	2002	67	236	30.47	31	307	338	29.04	4.70%

200+ wickets bowlers with over 2.0% reduction % of bowling average

Bowler	Type	Ctry	Start	End	Mats	Wkts	Avge	WDs	NBs	Total	AdjAvge	% chg
Lee B	RF	Aus	1999	2008	76	310	30.82	53	587	640	28.75	6.70%
Pollock S.M	RFM	Saf	1995	2008	108	421	23.12	28	602	630	21.62	6.47%
Flintoff A	RFM	Eng	1998	2009	79	226	32.79	35	366	401	31.01	5.41%
Ambrose	RF	Win	1988	2000	98	405	20.99	6	422	428	19.93	5.04%
Srinath J	RFM	Ind	1991	2002	67	236	30.47	31	307	338	29.04	4.70%
Vaas WPUJC	LFM	Slk	1994	2009	111	355	29.58	20	420	440	28.34	4.19%
Wasim Akram	LFM	Pak	1985	2002	104	414	23.62	9	391	400	22.65	4.09%
Gough D	RF	Eng	1994	2003	58	229	28.40	19	244	263	27.25	4.04%
Zaheer Khan	LFM	Ind	2000	2012	85	291	32.07	67	305	372	30.79	3.99%
McDermott	RF	Aus	1984	1996	71	291	28.63	4	305	309	27.57	3.71%
McGrath G.D	RFM	Aus	1993	2007	124	563	21.64	26	364	390	20.95	3.20%
Walsh C.A	RF	Win	1984	2001	132	519	24.44	12	392	404	23.66	3.19%
Hoggard M.J	RFM	Eng	2000	2008	67	248	30.50	25	216	241	29.53	3.19%
Caddick A.R	RFM	Eng	1993	2003	62	234	29.91	6	215	221	28.97	3.16%
Cairns C.L	RFM	Nzl	1989	2004	62	218	29.40	22	175	197	28.50	3.07%

Top bowlers in order of wickets

Bowler	Type	Ctry	Start	End	Mats	Wkts	Avge	WDs	NBs	Total	AdjAvge	% chg
Muralitharan	rob	Slk	1992	2010	133	800	22.73	2	388	390	22.24	2.15%
Warne S.K	rlb	Aus	1992	2007	145	708	25.42	23	163	186	25.15	1.03%
Kumble A	rlb	Ind	1990	2008	132	619	29.65	10	270	280	29.20	1.53%
McGrath G.D	RFM	Aus	1993	2007	124	563	21.64	26	364	390	20.95	3.20%
Walsh C.A	RF	Win	1984	2001	132	519	24.44	12	392	404	23.66	3.19%
Kapil Dev N	RFM	Ind	1978	1994	131	434	29.65	3	20	23	29.59	0.18%
Hadlee R.J	RFM	Nzl	1973	1990	86	431	22.30	0	2	2	22.29	0.02%
Pollock S.M	RFM	Saf	1995	2008	108	421	23.12	28	602	630	21.62	6.47%
Wasim Akram	LFM	Pak	1985	2002	104	414	23.62	9	391	400	22.65	4.09%
Harbhajan	rob	Ind	1998	2011	98	406	32.22	6	15	21	32.17	0.16%
Ambrose	RF	Win	1988	2000	98	405	20.99	6	422	428	19.93	5.04%
Ntini M	RF	Saf	1998	2009	101	390	28.83	45	130	175	28.38	1.56%
Botham I.T	RFM	Eng	1977	1992	102	383	28.40	0	0	0	28.40	0.00%
Marshall	RF	Win	1978	1991	81	376	20.95	8	53	61	20.78	0.77%
Waqar Younis	RFM	Pak	1989	2003	87	373	23.56	7	45	52	23.42	0.59%
Imran Khan	RF	Pak	1971	1992	88	362	22.81	0	0	0	22.81	0.00%
Vettori D.L	lsp	Nzl	1997	2012	112	360	34.42	4	121	125	34.08	1.01%
Lillee D.K	RF	Aus	1971	1984	70	355	23.92	0	0	0	23.92	0.00%
Vaas WPUJC	LFM	Slk	1994	2009	111	355	29.58	20	420	440	28.34	4.19%
Donald A.A	RF	Saf	1992	2002	72	330	22.25	62	91	153	21.79	2.08%
Willis	RF	Eng	1971	1984	90	325	25.20	0	0	0	25.20	0.00%
Lee B	RF	Aus	1999	2008	76	310	30.82	53	587	640	28.75	6.70%
Gibbs L.R	rob	Win	1958	1976	79	309	29.09	0	0	0	29.09	0.00%
Trueman F.S	RF	Eng	1952	1965	67	307	21.58	0	0	0	21.58	0.00%

Bowlers who have conceded most wides/no balls per Test

Bowler	Type	Ctry	Start	End	Mats	Wkts	Avge	WDs	NBs	Total	WdNb/Test
Malinga L.S	RFM	Slk	2004	2010	30	101	33.16	35	229	264	8.80
Lee B	RF	Aus	1999	2008	76	310	30.82	53	587	640	8.42
Collins P.T	LFM	Win	1999	2006	32	106	34.62	12	235	247	7.72
Edwards F.H	RF	Win	2003	2012	54	158	38.38	69	338	407	7.54
Mohd Sami	RF	Pak	2001	2012	36	85	52.74	30	209	239	6.64
Morkel M	RF	Saf	2006	2012	42	150	30.37	52	215	267	6.36
Roach K.A.J	RF	Win	2009	2012	21	82	27.70	20	113	133	6.33
Fernando	RFM	Slk	2000	2012	40	100	37.84	34	210	244	6.10
Kasprowicz	RFM	Aus	1996	2006	38	113	32.88	3	219	222	5.84
Pollock S.M	RFM	Saf	1995	2008	108	421	23.12	28	602	630	5.83
Reiffel P.R	RFM	Aus	1992	1998	35	104	26.96	5	198	203	5.80
ShoaibAkhtar	RF	Pak	1997	2007	46	178	25.69	17	227	244	5.30
Flintoff A	RFM	Eng	1998	2009	79	226	32.79	35	366	401	5.08
Srinath J	RFM	Ind	1991	2002	67	236	30.47	31	307	338	5.04
.....
Swann G.S	rob	Eng	2008	2012	46	192	29.59	5	0	5	0.11

General Comments

1. Probably the most significant bowling average change is one for Curtly Ambrose. The already very low average of this great bowler has been further reduced to below-20.0, 19.93 to be exact, making comparisons with Syd Barnes possible.

2. The next two significant reductions are for two very dissimilar bowlers, Brett Lee and Shaun Pollock. Their bowling averages have been reduced by over 6%. Pollock's average has been reduced to a wonderful figure of 21.62. They have bowled over 600 wides/no balls. What may be the reason for an accurate bowler like bowling so many no balls?

3. Similarly two totally dissimilar bowlers head the % reduction: Malinga and Reiffel. A real paradox. One a tear-away slinger and the other, a seemingly accurate medium-pacer.

4. Look at Swann's tally of wides/no balls. He has bowled a single wide in his 5 year career. That was in the 2011 Birmingham Test against India. That must have been a momentous occasion. And the icing on the cake: these were 5 wides.

5. If Swann is so accurate, how does one explain Muralitharan's 388 no balls? Warne, on the other hand, seems to have bowled only 163 no balls.

6. Not just Murali. Why do so many top bowlers bowl so many no balls. Surely some of these resulted in loss of a wicket.

7. Look at Waqar Younis' accuracy, only 52 wides/no balls and compare the same with Wasim Akram's 400 wides/no balls. The faster bowler has far fewer wides/no balls.In fact Waqar Younis has the lowest wides/no balls per Test amongst the top pace bowlers.

8. Saqlain Mushtaq and Muralitharan have the highest average of wides/no balls per Test, for spinners, either side of 3.0. If we conclude that unconventional off-spin is the reason, then Harbhajan seems to have excellent control with only 0.22 wides/no balls per Test.

9. Now for the maximum number of wides and no balls bowled by a bowler in an innings. These are either from the raw unadjusted scorecard data or where the changes are 100% correct (1 wide in analysis line for a single bowler and 5 wides in team extras line).

• No Balls: Unusually high numbers are present. Wasim Akram, in Test # 1283 against South Africa (1995), conceded 21 No balls. Ambrose's analysis in Test # 1363 shows 21 No balls, but this is wrong since the bowler total is in excess of the Team totals. Hence only Wasim Akram's is the correct figure indisputably.
  
• Wides: There are two candidates. In Test # 1809 Pak against Eng (2006), Umar Gul conceded either 10 or 14 wides but not very clear. In Test # 1836 against Eng (2007), Collymore conceded either 10 or 14 wides but not very clear. I could peruse the commentaries to sort this out but it would amount to too much work for very little gains.
  
• Total WDs/NBs: There are two 22s and 23s each but in unclear situations. Hence the total high must be allotted to Wasim Akram, with 21 No balls and Vaas, in Test 1592 against Pak (2002) who conceded 1 wide and 20 no balls.

10. Cannot resist this comment. I read a report wherein Kohli has mentioned that England and India gave India flat tracks for practice matches and green tops for Tests. If this is true, then how did England score 474/8, 269/6, 221, 544, 710/7 and 591/6. Around 60 Runs per wicket. Green tops? And Australia scored 330, 240, 659/4, 369, 604/7 and 167/5. RpW is around 51.5. India has the right to select any team, no spinners or 11 batsmen or 11 bowlers or 11 Zonal players for the practice match. Why make the silliest of statements to support it?

One final summary. I have given below the top-10 of the current Bowling average tables, for bowlers who have captured more than 150 wickets.

Barnes, Davidson, Marshall, Garner, Ambrose, Laker, Trueman, McGrath, Donald, Hadlee.

Now the same table with the wides/no balls removed for post-T1029 bowlers.

Barnes, Ambrose, Davidson, Marshall, McGrath, Garner, Laker, Trueman, Pollock, Donald.

The most significant change is Shaun Pollock moving from no.15 to no.9. Ambrose moves from 5 to 2. McGrath moves from 8 to 5. Muralitharan remains at no.11 in both tables.

To download the complete bowler tables and match summaries, please CLICK HERE.

Finally my thanks once again to Arijit.