A question of momentum

This series has been all about momentum. England had it in spades as they entered the first Test at Port Elizabeth, in the form of seven consecutive Test victories. They misplaced it at Durban when bad light halted their victory surge on the final evening, and they lost it entirely at Cape Town as South Africa squared the series with a relentlessly dominant performance.

And now, as the fourth Test prepares to get underway at Johannesburg, the advantage would appear to be in the other camp. With an hour remaining at Durban, England were all but 2-0 up with three to play, but they have been reined in to such effect that now, almost entirely by accident, it is South Africa who appear to have taken on the mantle of favourites.

This morning's practice session at the Wanderers confirmed that impression. For 20 deliveries, Andrew Flintoff trundled in off a half-cock run-up, as he put his torn rib muscle through the most delicate of paces. It was not a sight to inspire confidence that he will be fit to play a full part tomorrow, but for England his absence was too gruesome to contemplate. "Sure, I've got an eye on the future," acknowledged Michael Vaughan as he assessed the risk of further aggravating Flintoff's injury, "but I've also got an eye on winning the Test series."

He had a point. At the start of the series, England would have earmarked the Wanderers as a result pitch, and given the prospect of extra bounce and greater zip through the rarefied high-veld air, it is a venue that ought to suit their seam attack down to the ground. And yet, with Steve Harmison misfiring and Flintoff's fitness uncertain, the timing of this opportunity is not exactly ideal. Five years ago, when England themselves slumped to 2 for 4 here against Shaun Pollock and Allan Donald, it was on the opening morning of the series, when everyone was fresh - and the pitch even more so.

Instead, Flintoff and his fellow bowlers have been given just seven days to recover from the excesses of three back-to-back Tests over the festive period. If a week is a long time in politics, then it is an eternity in a modern-day cricket tour, for that is the biggest break either side will enjoy until the one-day series is completed in February. But with that in mind, it seems the undoubted merits of England's settled team (just one enforced change all series) may come back to haunt them.

The relatively high-flying South Africans, by contrast, have somehow hit upon the perfect formula for coping with the intensity of the modern-day itinerary - pick a controversial skeleton side for your first game, and improve it with every passing match until it is brimful with abrasive competitors with several points to prove. Where once the teamsheet included makeweights such as Zander de Bruyn, Andrew Hall and Thami Tsolekile, now it boasts such big guns as Herschelle Gibbs, Nicky Boje and, most pertinently of all, Mark Boucher.

Boucher's return to South African colours was even more of a shock than his original omission. Even he admitted that he thought his chance of playing had gone once AB de Villiers had made his stunningly composed debut behind the stumps. But, by accident rather than design, the timing of his return is a master-stroke. England would have taken heart from his continued absence, but now they are more likely to have a heart attack.

There have been plenty of rumours of dressing-room unrest dogging the South African camp this week, and the prospect of yet more changes flies in the face of Graeme Smith's appeal for continuity after the Port Elizabeth defeat. But just as England are prepared to hang the long term and risk Flintoff as an allrounder, so South Africa have decided to throw everything at victory, regardless of the consequences.

That goes for their much-criticised selection policy as well, for AB de Villiers looks set to take on his third different role in four Tests, with the luckless Hashim Amla stepping down from his No. 6 slot. There had been talk of de Villiers resuming his opener's role instead, to allow Gibbs to find his feet further down the order, but such a prospect now seems improbable. Gibbs and Smith have been a formidable opening pairing in the past, and their series aggregate of 40 runs in four partnerships can surely only improve over the final two matches.

England have batting worries of their own, not least where their captain, Vaughan, is concerned. His return of 84 runs in six innings is worrying enough, but it is the breakdown of those innings that is the greater cause for alarm. Each one has fallen in the range of 10 to 20, which means he is getting in ... and getting straight out again. A run of ducks in the manner of a Mark Waugh would have been a more reassuring sight.

"I've been working hard in the nets with Duncan [Fletcher]," said Vaughan. "I feel relaxed and my feet are going nicely, so I've just got to take that out into the middle with me. So far in this series, 50% of my dismissals have been to good bowling, and the other 50% through poor batting. So if I eradicate that 50%, then a big score will be around the corner."

England's other big concern surrounds the other former world No. 1 in their ranks. All series, Vaughan has been reaffirming his belief that Steve Harmison has a matchwinning spell up his sleeve, but now, with just two crunch matches to come, his window of opportunity is rapidly receding. But the Wanderers wicket, with its pace and carry, might just be the one to tickle his fancy. "We can never take him for granted," warned Smith. "He has pace and bounce, and on any given day he can be destructive."

Smith added that a late decision would be made on the inclusion of Charl Langeveldt, the swing bowler who defied a broken hand to grab a five-wicket haul in the first innings at Cape Town, his on debut. "Charl's not 100%," he conceded. "If the selectors decide to play him it will be a risk. But he's improving every day, and he did superbly in the last Test."

And talking of swing, there is even the prospect of a rare appearance for James Anderson in the starting line-up. With Flintoff struggling for full fitness, Anderson and his mercurial wicket-taking ability may be preferred to Simon Jones, who bowled just 27.3 overs at Cape Town and did not appear to have the full confidence of his captain. "Jimmy's looked good in the nets all tour," said Vaughan. "It makes our job difficult, but it's nice to have a guy like that pushing the guys in the team. The swing element plays a big part here, so that's brings Jimmy into the picture in a big way."

Given the relative success of South Africa's "treat 'em mean, keep 'em keen" policy, there may yet be some logic in throwing Anderson into the fray, for all that his last competitive outing was against Zimbabwe on December 4. If nothing else, he might just produce the jaffa that is currently needed to dislodge Jacques Kallis.

South Africa (probable) 1 Graeme Smith (capt), 2 Herschelle Gibbs, 3 Jacques Rudolph, 4 Jacques Kallis, 5 Boeta Dippenaar, 6 AB de Villiers, 7 Mark Boucher (wk), 8 Nicky Boje, 9 Shaun Pollock, 10 Makhaya Ntini, 11 Charl Langeveldt.

England (probable) 1 Marcus Trescothick, 2 Andrew Strauss, 3 Robert Key, 4 Michael Vaughan (capt), 5 Graham Thorpe, 6 Andrew Flintoff, 7 Geraint Jones (wk), 8 Ashley Giles, 9 Simon Jones, 10 Matthew Hoggard, 11 Steve Harmison.