Australia's pace depth: Who's in the Ashes mix if Cummins and co run aground?

Australia's chair of selectors George Bailey projected typical calm about the availability of Pat Cummins for the Ashes despite alarming news that the captain has a hot spot in his back just 11 weeks out from the first Test in Perth. Josh Hazlewood broke down in each of the only two Tests he played last summer while Australia's iron-man Mitchell Starc will turn 36 in January and has 100 Tests in his legs.

Scott Boland, who is already 36, is pushing to make Australia's first-choice XI and would automatically slot in if Cummins were unavailable. But if two or more of the four were to suffer injuries simultaneously, something that has not happened at home since 2022, where Australia's selectors next turn becomes a topic of debate.

Brendan Doggett has elevated himself to the top of the list following outstanding performances for Australia A and South Australia last summer. The 31-year-old was called in as cover for Hazlewood during the Border-Gavaskar Trophy, his first call-up to an Australia Test squad since 2018. He was also a traveling reserve for the World Test Championship final and was in Australia's squad for the tour of the Caribbean but was sent home with a minor hip injury.

He has fully recovered and Bailey confirmed he was set to start the season with South Australia in the Dean Jones Trophy (Australia's 50-over domestic competition) before playing in the early Sheffield Shield rounds where his loads will likely be managed to some degree.

Sean Abbott is yet to make his Test debut but has played 54 limited-overs internationals for Australia. He has been seen as a white-ball specialist but in 88 first-class matches has 267 wickets at 30.29. His white-ball commitments have made it difficult to play a lot of first-class cricket recently but in three Shield games last year for New South Wales he took 19 wickets at 21.94.

He toured Sri Lanka with the Test team when Cummins and Hazlewood were injured but Australia only played one quick. He also replaced Doggett as the fifth seamer for the Caribbean. His pace and his durability make him a trusted option, particularly if Australia predict some flatter surfaces, but he is probably at least two, possibly three injuries away from a Test debut in the Ashes.

Michael Neser has so often been the forgotten man of Australian cricket but he has dropped right off the radar in the last 12 months due to a serious hamstring injury he suffered while playing for Australia A against India A last November. He missed two months and although he had an excellent finish to the Shield season, including taking 6 for 37 against Tasmania and 4 for 34 against Western Australia, he was hampered again in the final but bravely bowled through the pain.

He has had a rare winter off to rehabilitate and is fully fit again but at 35, coming off a summer of hamstring issues, he will need to be more conservative with his workloads. He is the last pace bowler outside of the big four to have played Test cricket for Australia having featured in two pink-ball Tests in 2021 and 2022 when Cummins and Starc were unavailable. He is a trusted option that would possibly be called in ahead of Doggett and Abbott if Australia needed another quick for the pink-ball Test at the Gabba or if seam-friendly conditions were likely at another venue later in the series.

Fingers and toes are crossed within CA's high performance team that Jhye Richardson can get back up and running at some stage this summer coming off shoulder surgery. However, he only began rolling the arm over again for the first time on August 13 and appears a long way from being Test match fit right now, let alone being fit for the start of the summer for Western Australia. He also won't be able to throw properly if called upon.

That won't sway Australia's selectors who called him into Australia's squad for the final two Tests last summer despite dislocating his bowling shoulder while high-fiving a team-mate in his only Shield game of the season. He also had hamstring surgery the previous year. The 28-year-old could vault into contention late in the series but a lot would need to go right for him and a lot would have to go wrong for Australia's big four if he were to play in the Ashes. But he did take five wickets in his last Test, which was in Adelaide against England in 2021.

Xavier Bartlett is a fair way down the Test queue but he could rise up the ranks quickly if he bowls well in all forms and injuries mount up. The start to his ODI career has been noteworthy but his rise to Australia's limited-overs set-up has possibly affected his red-ball development. He played six first-class games last summer, including one against England Lions for Australia A, and took 20 wickets at 25.05 including one five-wicket haul. But his selection by Punjab Kings in the IPL saw him miss the Shield final which would have been valuable experience.

His ability to swing the new ball is exceptional and he takes wickets in bunches in the right conditions but his average speed is under 130kph which has made him vulnerable when the ball stops swinging. He has been selected for Australia A's red-ball tour of India in September but will then go to New Zealand for three T20Is in four days at the start of October. Any chance he has to get a stretch of Shield games before the Ashes may be hindered by white-ball commitments against India. He should get the opportunity to play at least two Shield games or possibly some Australia A or Prime Minister's XI matches once the Ashes starts if his white-ball loads before that don't require a rest.

Fergus O'Neill can't do anything more than he's doing to push his Test case. The 24-year-old is the reigning Shield player of the year and has 133 first-class wickets at 20.03 from 33 matches. Those numbers belie his physique and lack of pace, which will be the question against how well his first-class skills can translate to Test pitches. He is going to India with Australia A which is a sign the selectors are keen to expose him to different conditions. Much like Neser, he would come into serious contention ahead of others in certain conditions in Australia. The 2026 tour of South Africa and the 2027 Ashes loom as places he could also be an option in the short to medium term.

Nathan McAndrew is well regarded, has an excellent first-class record and was a key figure in South Australia's drought-breaking Shield title. He played for Australia A last year alongside Boland and Neser to highlight his standing. He's durable and reliable but a lot of injuries would need to occur before he was called upon for the Ashes.

As good as O'Neill has been in domestic cricket, Joel Paris' record is better. It has gone largely unnoticed even among studious followers of Australian cricket, but Paris has 202 first-class wickets at 19.56 from 51 matches. Like O'Neill, his lack of pace means he would be a conditions-based option. But as a left-armer who can swing and seam the ball prodigiously, if something were to happen to Starc and certain conditions called for it, Paris would be discussed. He was quietly positioned as one of a few standby options for the 2023 Ashes in England while Starc was playing through a groin issue.

Lance Morris would have been right in contention as he has been in previous summers but a stress fracture has led to back surgery and he will not return to bowling until late next year.

Spencer Johnson remains an alluring prospect despite his limited first-class experience but he has not played since the IPL due to back issues of his own after being withdrawn from Australia's T20I tour of the Caribbean and Bailey confirmed he is unlikely to play again until the new year.

There's excitement about Australia's Under-19 World Cup winning quartet of Callum Vidler, Tom Straker, Charlie Anderson and Mahli Beardman but all four are a long way from Test calculations at this point.

Vidler and Straker have been selected for the 50-over portion of the Australia A tour of India this month. There was a possibility to expose them in the four-day games, particularly after Vidler's stunning showing in the Shield final last March, but they are not quite ready physically for four-day cricket at this stage of the year. Beardman has stress fractures at the moment while Anderson is being carefully managed after years of his own back issues.

Sam Elliott, 25, has also been picked for the 50-over portion of the Australia A tour to India but has not been a regular in Victoria's Shield team. Brody Couch, 24, has shown promise since moving to Western Australia and was called into the Australia A red-ball squad for India after Morris was injured, but he has since suffered a side strain. He has been replaced by 28-year-old Henry Thornton, who finished last Shield season well for South Australia and played for Australia A in both the red-ball and white-ball matches against Sri Lanka A in Darwin in July.