Cricket but not as we know it

Just how radical cricket's future might be is clear from looking at the past. Imagine we are back in early 1999 and ask who would have thought then that an as-yet uncapped 20-year-old batsman from Delhi, Virender Sehwag, would over the next 10 years maintain as an opener a scoring-rate in Tests of almost 80 runs per 100 balls while averaging more than 50 per innings. Who would have imagined, either, that an England batsman (having already gained fame for winning the Ashes while wearing a skunk on his head) would have introduced switch-hitting into five-day cricket? And who on earth would have said that 20-over matches would take the world by storm? Logically we are in for one hell of a ride between now and 2019.

The advent of Twenty20 will prove one of the seminal moments in cricket history. Its major effect will be the end of internationals as the primary goal of every professional player. Instead many players will essentially be free agents, more independent and wealthy than they have ever been. They will be granted seats, and an influential voice, on national boards and the ICC.

There will be several Twenty20 leagues around the world - in India, England, Australia and possibly South Africa - plus more exhibition events, like the Stanford Super Series, sponsored by super-rich patrons. These will enable 100 players a year to earn million-dollar salaries from this format alone. All major international cricket is suspended when these events take place.

The Champions League, however, may take several years to take root and, given the exorbitant prices for TV rights paid at the outset, may even be junked as a victim of the credit crunch.

The popularity and wealth of these events will force Test and traditional 50-overs internationals into change. Test matches will be condensed to four days because five days will seem too long, the tempo of the games will inevitably get faster due to Twenty20, and everyone will regard the chance to save a day and open up valuable space in a crowded calendar as too good an opportunity to miss.

In every country outside England most Test matches will be played under floodlights once manufacturers provide a coloured ball that does not misbehave too much. At a stroke this will revitalise spectator interest in Australia and South Africa, but problems with dew will influence which venues stage Tests and when these matches are played.

In England day-time attendances will remain strong but this means England will find it harder to win Tests overseas because they will have less experience of Test cricket at night. Generally Test matches will see faster scoring, with the best batsmen achieving strike-rates in excess of 100, and teams will not blanch at being asked to chase down 450 in the fourth innings.

Another seminal event is the decision taken by ICC members that from 2012 they will play the World Twenty20 and 50-overs World Cup every three years. These tournaments make up two of international cricket's three "majors", the other being the world Test Championship.

The Test Championship is basically run on the existing rankings system but with a playoffs season every third year, the main attraction being two semi-finals and a final. These are "special" Test matches, played as two-innings limited-overs matches of 180 overs per side so that draws are eliminated. These games originally take place in London as this is regarded as the most cosmopolitan centre, though the security bill eats up most of the revenue.

In defiance of predictions Tests will continue to provide some of the most enthralling matches and remain much loved by television companies anxious to fill their airtime. Test cricket is exciting because, thanks to the influence of Twenty20, batting sides think almost no task impossible and are prepared to risk losing in the quest for victory.

The speed at which batsmen score will help keep a balance between bat and ball, with runs per wicket staying at around 30-35, as it has for many years. Those appearing for the main Test-playing nations will continue to record striking personal aggregates. Among those to reach 10,000 runs in Tests will be Australia's Michael Clarke and AB de Villiers of South Africa, while Kevin Pietersen will be followed to this milestone for England by Alastair Cook.

But less Test cricket will be played. Outside the big five who play each other regularly - England, Australia, India, South Africa and West Indies (the latter's cricket rejuvenated by the disciplines and money brought in through the annual Stanford matches, once Allen Stanford gets the modernised West Indies board he wants) - priorities will lie elsewhere.

Under the new Future Tours Programme, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, New Zealand and Bangladesh are permitted to play one-off Tests rather than the existing minimum of two.

After the disastrous example of Zimbabwe no new countries apply for Test status but several new countries start playing official Twenty20s, including the United States and a well-funded Chinese team.

Sri Lanka and New Zealand among others will be relieved not to play so many Tests because TV companies and sponsors there had less interest in covering matches and the national boards found the games expensive to stage. Most of their leading players, in any case, will be happy concentrating on Twenty20s and ODIs. These countries will rarely deny players a No-Objection Certificate for domestic Twenty20s for fear of losing them altogether.

The way for the Pakistani players was led by Sohail Tanvir's decision in December 2008 to sign to play Twenty20 for South Australia. Pakistan will stage what few home Tests they host in Abu Dhabi or London (security permitting), as Pakistan itself continues to suffer from a boycott on security grounds. The Pakistan board will fulfill foreign tours, but results are poor as they struggle to put out a full-strength XI.

Pakistan also have what are effectively national teams in the ICL and IPL, as do Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. This means that their players can make up for their smaller earnings from Test cricket. Even without so many opportunities against Bangladesh and Zimbabwe, Ajantha Mendis, the Sri Lankan spinner, will have little trouble passing 500 Test wickets.

The experience of playing so much Twenty20 will help the Asian nations, Bangladesh included, dominate the World Twenty20 and World Cup, thanks to their strength in unorthodox spin, inventive fast bowlers, and greater use of the muscle-building supplements like Creatin.

All round, India, their talent base enlarged through the inspirational effect of the short formats, become indisputably the best team in the world. They have one of the strongest packs of fast bowlers, several of whom are left-armers. The best of them is Ishant Sharma. India's new breed of batsmen includes Murali Vijay, who blends a solid technique with the strength to smite big sixes.

Australia will win fewer trophies. Their Test cricket will suffer from their board allowing so many leading players time to play in the Twenty20 leagues and their sloth in integrating ethnic minorities, who may follow the example of Moises Henriques, a former Under-19 captain born in Madeira, who signed for the IPL in 2008.

South Africa remain strong in fast bowling - led by the world's best new-ball pair, Dale Steyn and Morne Morkel - but pay the price for being unable to produce world-class spinners and lacking imagination when it comes to limited-overs cricket. Their team is bolstered by expatriate Zimbabweans with nowhere else to go.

West Indies produce several dazzling strokemakers but their most reliable batsman is likely to be Adrian Barath, a low-wicket player from Trinidad in the style of Shivnarine Chanderpaul. England become a strong Test side thanks to a rich seam of Asian-extraction slow bowlers - led by legspinning allrounder Adil Rashid - who can win them day-time matches at home. These spinners will not be as one-dimensional as Monty Panesar, as multi-faceted cricketers are strictly de rigueur. Because they continue to play more Tests than anyone else, England lag behind in the shorter forms of the game.

Spin bowling will generally have a big part to play as it is seen as the best way of slowing down the scoring. In turn the challenge for batsmen will be to find ways to break the shackles. Switch-hitting will become as common as reverse-sweeping is today. The United States team, in particular, is keen on switch-hitters. In the Twenty20 leagues every team will have at least one switch-hitter, a pattern begun by David Warner of New South Wales, who can bat with almost equal facility left-handed or right-handed. To this end it is common for players to use double-sided bats, which are currently being developed by Gray-Nicolls in Australia.

Wristy batsmen will prosper but what will underpin the games of the vast majority of batsmen will be raw muscle. The open-chested stance will be more common, as batsmen look to free their arms for baseball-style swings. The number of six hits will rise to record levels; in Twenty20s more sixes will be hit than fours, as batsmen go aerial to ensure they elude fielding that is more athletic than ever.

Yellow and red cards will belatedly be introduced for slow play, indiscipline and physical contact, all of which will rise in response to the greater financial rewards on offer. The ICC will also consent to on-field umpires acting in unison with the third official.