Draw the new favourite

Shane Warne has had an excellent series and heads the market to be Man of the Match at the Oval © Getty Images

A shaky weather forecast has caused a change in the odds for the fifth Test at the Oval, with the projected rain causing bet365 to make the draw the new favourite at 13/10 (2.30). That would be enough, of course, for England to win the Ashes for the first time since 1986-7 while the Australians, 2-1 down with one match to go, are now 17/10 (2.70) to win at the Oval and retain the Ashes, albeit by the skin of their teeth. England, who have dominated the contests since the opening Test at Lord's, have drifted from 2/1 (3.00) to 13/5 (3.60).

The news that Glenn McGrath is fit to play is a massive boost to Australia's hopes, especially as their record at the Oval is not good. In 33 Tests there against England, they've won just six times and lost 15. Now some of that is because the Oval is usually the last Test and they may have eased off after winning a series, especially in recent series here. They did win there in 2003, but England triumphed in 1993 and 1997. England have won 35, lost 18 and drawn 34 of their 87 Tests there overall.

Late team changes and the ever-changing weather forecast will be all important in any changes to the markets, but the way England have played in the past three Tests makes me think that they will carry over the momentum and, more importantly, they truly believe they will win at the Oval. bet365's 13/5 could be a good price.

Warne to be Man of the Match?
Not surprisingly, Shane Warne heads the betting to win the Man of the Match award. The leg-spinner, whose wiles have had the England batsmen in all sorts of problems throughout the series, is 13/2 (7.50) to win the award. Warne has taken a phenomenal 28 wickets in the first four Tests. More importantly, perhaps, he's also snaffled 20 wickets in his three previous Tests at the Oval.

Andrew Flintoff, one of England's heroes in the series, is next at 7/1 (8.00), while Australia captain Ricky Ponting is 8/1 (9.00), the same price as Glenn McGrath, who will be hoping to show some of the form that destroyed England in the first Test at Lord's. Marcus Trescothick, who has enjoyed a good time at the top of the order for England, is 11/1 (12.00), as are his captain Michael Vaughan and Australia paceman Brett Lee.

Kevin Pietersen is a 12/1 (13.00) chance, while Andrew Strauss and Justin Langer are the only other likely alternatives at 14/1 (15.00).