England odds cut again

Ricky Ponting's men know that only a win will do at the Oval if they are to retain the Ashes © Getty Images

There must have been some more money for England over the weekend as Michael Vaughan's side are now 4/9 (1.44) from 8/15 (1.53) to win the Ashes. Their nail-biting victory in the fourth Test at Trent Bridge gave them a 2-1 lead going into the final Test at the Oval, which starts on Thursday. Australia, who gave England a real scare at Trent Bridge, are now 13/8 (2.62) from 11/8 (2.37) to snatch victory in London and draw the series 2-2, thereby retaining the Ashes.

Not surprisingly, for those who have a simple grasp on maths, Australia's price for victory at the Oval is the same as the price for the series to be drawn - since it is effectively the same thing. England are still a 2/1 (3.00) chance, which could prove to be very popular given the way they have maintained their momentum in outstanding fashion ever since they levelled the series at Edgbaston.

With a short break between matches to recover and reconsider, Australia will make changes, with Glenn McGrath certain to return after overcoming the elbow injury which kept him out at Trent Bridge. Newcomer Shaun Tait is the most likely man to make way, though Michael Kasprowicz had a poor fourth Test and could lose his place.

The return of McGrath will definitely be a boost to Australia's hopes, especially as their record at the Oval is not good. In 33 Tests there against England, they've won just six times and lost 15. Now some of that is because the Oval is usually the last Test and they may have eased off after winning a series, especially in recent series here. They did win there in 2003, but England triumphed in 1993 and 1997. England have won 35, lost 18 and drawn 34 of their 87 Tests there overall.

Team news and the weather forecast will be all important in any changes to the markets, but the way England have played in the past three Tests makes me think that they will carry over the momentum and, more importantly, they truly believe they will win at the Oval. bet365's 2-1 could be a good price.