England odds cut for Lord's triumph

So, after Bangladesh's 15 minutes of fame, the NatWest series comes down to a one-off clash between England and Australia at Lord's on Saturday. The Ashes may be looming large on the horizon and the two sides will meet in three more one-dayers in the next fortnight, but the chance to score a few psychological points should ensure that Saturday's final is an intense encounter.

You'll probably remember that I picked England to win the series at 7/4 (2.75). Part of the reason for picking them was that in what effectively was a two-horse race, that's far too big a price to win a one-off match. However, the way they have gone about their business in the early matches has convinced me that they have a great chance of beating Australia once more to win the trophy.

bet365 still make Australia big favourites, at 8/15 (1.53), while England are now 11/8 (2.37). The venue is important here, and Lord's is the most successful one-day ground for England in one-day matches, with 16 wins from 30 matches.

England began the series in style with Kevin Pietersen smashing the ball to all parts of the ground. Since then, though, Australia have improved with every match and this one really is virtually a 50-50 call in my view. England will be buoyed by memories of their victory in the semi-final of the Champions Trophy last year, while Australia are, of course, the winners of the last two World Cups.

Going into the series, Australia had won their last seven one-day matches, nine of their last 10 and 16 of their last 20, while England had won just four of their last 10 and only 10 of their last 20.