Manning struggling to overcome his Patriot demons

The two best teams in the NFL over the past few seasons, the New England Patriots and the Indianapolis Colts, meet at the Gillette Stadium on Monday night, home of the Superbowl champions. Despite winning their division in both of the past two years, the Colts have found the Patriots too tough to break down, while the Pats´ defence has found a way to stop the awesome offence of the Colts, led by Peyton Manning. But though the Patriots are now 4-3 for the season and top their division, the Colts are romping away with the AFC South with a perfect seven wins out of seven.

The pattern of previous meetings has been that the Patriots have been able to stop Manning from finding his favourite receivers, like Marvin Harrison, and also equal to anything the Colts could do on the ground. In contrast, the Colts have been unable to stop Tom Brady and the Patriots offence.

Things could be different this time round, though. The Colts defence has been a revelation this year, giving up a league-low 11 points per game and getting themselves ranked as the fourth-best team in the NFL in total defence.

No one has managed 100 yards rushing against them, though Corey Dillon will fancy his chances of breaking through on the ground. Not surprisingly, the Patriots have won nine of their ten games when Dillon has rushed for 100 yards or more.

Monday night´s game could come down to mental strength. While Brady, who is second in passing yards this season - with almost 500 more than Manning - is a cool customer who almost never throws an interception, Manning has found himself under pressure against the Patriots and coughed up mistakes.

If he can cut them out, then the Colts are strong favourites given the confidence of seven wins out of seven and their new-found strength on defence. However, the Patriots are beginning to look more like the team that has won three of the last four Superbowls, and the return of Tedy Bruschi has lifted them considerably.

This kind of match is probably best enjoyed as a spectacle rather than an attractive betting proposition, but if you have to get involved, I would just about side with the Colts, who are 10-11 to cover a three-point handicap.