Perry's absence, Verma's presence at the top, and other factors that can influence the T20 World Cup final

India will make their maiden appearance in a Women's T20 World Cup final on Sunday. They are up against a team that has won the title four times and has made to every single final barring the inaugural edition. That's as far as the one-sidedness of this contest goes. If any team has challenged Australia's dominance in T20Is in the recent past, it has been India. They are the only team to win at least as many T20Is as they have lost against the defending champions in the last five years. India have come up on the right side of the result thrice in the last five T20Is between the two teams.

From being largely in favour of Australia in the past, contests between these two sides have found an even keel in recent times, the balance of which could be tilted in favour of one team or the other by any of the following performances, or the lack thereof, on March 8.

Incredibly, in an Indian team with superstars like the captain Harmanpreet Kaur and opener Smriti Mandhana, a 16-year old has become the become the prized scalp for the opposition. Shafali Verma - who has risen to No. 1 in ICC's T20I batting rankings despite making her international debut just over a year ago - has almost single-handedly carried India's batting in the tournament. She has scored 161 of the 493 runs that have been scored by India in this World Cup - that's nearly one-third runs India's batters have made. Her strike rate of 166.66 is easily the best for any batter in this World cup with at least 50 runs.

Verma has got India off to blistering starts in the Powerplay - their scoring rate of 8.25 runs an over is the best among teams in this T20 World Cup. Verma herself has scored 124 runs off just 68 balls in the first six overs. Out of the 13 sixes hit in the Powerplay, as many as eight have been off the bat of Verma.

While India will hope that Verma continues her merry way on Sunday, Australia will be keen to see her back into the pavilion at the earliest.

In the last one year, Beth Mooney has scored 645 runs at an average of 43 in T20Is. Her seven fifty-plus scores in 19 innings since last March are the most by any batter in the format. After an indifferent start to the T20 World Cup, Mooney has hit her stride with scores of 81*, 60 and 28 in the last three innings.

Mooney may not be as aggressive in her approach to batting as her opening partner Alyssa Healy, but in her Australia have found, perhaps, their best answer to counter India's spin challenge. In the last ten T20Is between the two teams Mooney has scored 142 runs off 122 balls at an average of 35.50 against India's spin quartet of Poonam Yadav, Deepti Sharma, Rajeshwari Gayakwad and Radha Yadav. Ashleigh Gardner is the only other batter in Australia's current squad to average 30-plus against these spinners. The rest of Australia's batting unit averages just 13 runs per dismissal.

Only Sharma, on occasions, has had the better of Mooney, having dismissed her thrice in this format, but as the Australian had showed in the tri-series final, she can use her feet to spinners and has shots to counter them.

In spite of the brisk starts India have got in every match, they have managed to score at just 5.71 runs an over in the middle overs (Nos.7 to 16). India's scoring rate in the middle overs has been only the fifth best among the 10 teams in the competition. From a boundary every 4.6 balls on an average in the Powerplay, India lose steam to score only one every 11 ball in the middle overs.

India's middle-over woes have been compounded by indifferent running between the wickets. Quite often, their batters haven't pushed to convert singles into twos and threes, leaving runs uncollected on the field. India have run a two (or a three) for every 15 singles they've taken on an average in the middle overs, which is worst single-to-two conversion rate for any team in this T20 World Cup.

India will look to improve on their middle-over scoring even as Australia bowlers look to exploit this weakness.

Unlike India's batting line-up (Nos.1 to 7), which is yet to score a fifty in the tournament, Australia's has been among runs. Australia top seven have a combined runs tally of 680 in this T20 World Cup and average the best at 29.56. Out of the nine batters to have scored at least 100 runs at an average of 30-plus in this tournament, four belong to Australia. As for India, only Verma has aggregated more than 100 runs in the tournament.

Apart from Verma and Sharma, who made a fighting unbeaten 49 against Australia in the opener, none of the India batters have touched 30 in the league matches against tougher bowling oppositions in Australia and New Zealand. Kaur and Mandhana, India's batting mainstays, have managed to score only 64 runs between them in seven innings.

India will need at least one of these two batsmen to come good if they are to win the title.

No bowler has taken more wickets against India in T20Is than Ellyse Perry. Her 22 wickets against them have come at an average of 14.09. More importantly, Perry has dismissed Verma thrice in 16 deliveries in this format. She was the one to take out the teenager in the league match, after she had threatened to take the game away from hosts with a quick 29 off 15.

India's top-five - comprising Verma, Mandhana, Jemimah Rodrigues, Kaur and Sharma - have a combined average of 12.1 and have scored at a strike rate of just 86.2 in T20Is since 2016. Against the other Australia bowlers who've regularly bowled in this T20 World Cup, they average 31.9 and strike at a healthy rate of 131.1.

That's the void Australia have to fill in their bowling attack in the final.