Selection uncertainty or smokescreen? Focus on Cummins day before Gabba Test

It was a question that summed up the slightly curious situation that has become the discussion around Australia's selection for the Gabba Test. Steven Smith, the stand-in captain, was asked if he would still be leading if Pat Cummins made a surprise return: "I wouldn't have thought so," Smith said.

There have been plenty of chances this week to say that Cummins definitely won't make his comeback in Brisbane. Adelaide had long seemed the most likely timeline and he has never officially been made part of the squad. But the door has not been slammed shut.

At the time Smith spoke on Wednesday, Australia's hierarchy wanted a further look at the pitch before making a call on their XI. It was due for another cut from the groundstaff, which duly came at around 3pm, although, in truth, it did not seem to change its distinct green tinge much at all - at least from 100 or so metres away.

A short while later, Smith and chair of selectors George Bailey wandered out to the middle for a look and a prod. There were chats with the curator. How much grass was left, how firm was it? Around 15 minutes later another inspection followed, this time including Cummins and head coach Andrew McDonald.

There was a hug exchanged between Cummins and McDonald, but that could have meant absolutely nothing, and they will have been well aware that plenty of eyes were watching. Remember when Mitchell Marsh marked out his run at Edgbaston before the opening Test of the 2023 Ashes?

Shortly after 5pm, in which time the Gabba had been evacuated due to a smoke alarm, it was confirmed Australia would name their XI at the toss. Yes, that has taken quite a lot of words to say something completely unremarkable. But there's been 11 days without cricket.

On a slightly more serious note, the intrigue around Cummins has been fuelled by how impressive he has looked during his ramp up in bowling over the last two weeks. On Monday in Brisbane, he bowled twice either side of a having a bat. On Tuesday, he went out to Allan Border Field, along with Mitchell Starc, where bowlers are able to get full run-ups unlike in the Gabba nets, although it could not be ascertained what he did there.

"He looked in red-hot form the other night, as good as you'll see [from] a fast bowler charging in in the nets," Scott Boland said.

But, perhaps significantly, Smith made reference to how nets and the middle are different beasts. "He looks pretty good to me," he said. "The way he's bowled in the nets, obviously the game's a different intensity for sure, but he's tracking really nicely. He knows his body well, and we'll wait and see."

The other interest in all this comes from who Cummins would replace. It's understood that a week ago the only realistic way for him to feature in Brisbane would be as part of an all-pace attack so that workloads could be managed, which would mean Nathan Lyon being left out.

Lyon didn't play Australia's previous pink-ball Test in Jamaica, bowled only two overs in Perth and sent down just one in last season's day-night Test in Adelaide. But he had an important role to play at the Gabba in the ground's previous day-night Test against West Indies, and concerns linger about how the harder surface here could make the ball so soft. Overall with the pink ball, Lyon has 43 wickets at 25.62.

"We'll look at the surface, as I said, and we'll sum things up from there," Smith said. "I think here's a place where Nathan's done really well in the past. He's a quality bowler, but we'll weigh up the options."

The other way back for Cummins would be in place of Brendan Doggett, although there may be a risk of having him as one of three frontline quicks without another two weeks of work under his belt, albeit Cameron Green was barely needed in Perth.

England captain Ben Stokes acknowledged he didn't know who he would be walking out with tomorrow afternoon. "Pat's awesome," he added. "Has been for a very, very long time. He's done great things, not only as a player, but he's been great since he's been given the responsibility of being captain for Australia."

The home side has another decision to make, but the replacement for Usman Khawaja feels more certain with Josh Inglis, who made a century on Test debut in Sri Lanka earlier this year, strongly favoured to come into the middle order with Travis Head continuing the opening role he took on with such dramatic effect in the second innings in Perth.

It would mean Beau Webster being unfortunate for the second Test in a row, but Inglis' strength against the short ball, something Australia expect to continue to receive plenty of, is highly rated by the selectors. He was very impressive against Jofra Archer, Brydon Carse and Mark Wood (the latter now injured) when he crunched 120 off 86 balls at the Champions Trophy earlier this year.

"He's obviously a pretty attacking batsman," Smith said. "He did really well on his debut in Sri Lanka. He's been in really good form… he plays fast bowling really nicely. He's been a really good player for a long period of time. He's come up through the system and I think he just continues to get better and better. Every opportunity he's got at any level, whether it be T20, ODI or Test cricket, he's put his best foot forward and done a good job for the team."

But tomorrow afternoon, all the interest will be around one man. Is it all a smokescreen? You know, those dastardly Ashes mind games. Or is it a genuine selection discussion? Either way, one of Smith or Cummins will be in their blazers to toss the coin and then this Ashes series can finally resume.