Possible return of pace duo tilts odds towards Australia

The sight of Glenn McGrath bowling in training on Wednesday must have sent shivers down the spines of the England team as they prepared for today's third Test at Old Trafford. And whether he plays or not, the Aussies are now 6/5 (2.20) favourites for victory, while England are 23/10 (3.30) and the draw is 12/5 (3.40).

Considering that Australia were still odds-on the day after Edgbaston, the money has clearly been coming in for the home side, but backers would be well to take notice of one statistic in particular. Since their fifth Test defeat by West Indies at the start of 1993, Australia have lost consecutive Test matches in a series only three times. Two of those double defeats came in India, in 1997/8 and 2000/1, while the only other time was courtesy of some Brian Lara heroics in the West Indies in 1998/9.

In the few days since Edgbaston, I've been trying to put myself in the shoes of each team captain in an effort to work out just who has the advantage going to Old Trafford, and I'm still not sure. In theory, the momentum should be with England, who were in jubilant mood on Sunday night.

However, though losing is not something Australia are used to, they will take great heart from the fact that they came back from a near-impossible situation to almost snatch victory. The continued absence of McGrath will be a blow to their hopes of victory at Old Trafford, as he took seven wickets there in 1997 (when Shane Warne took nine to clinch victory). However, they will be buoyed by their record in Manchester, where they have won eight and lost just seven Tests against England. Their more recent record is even better as they came away with victory in 1997 - the last time they played there - 1993 and 1989 and haven't lost there since 1981. England have won just three of their past 10 Tests there, though they did earn wins in each of the past two Tests there.

Warne needs just one more victim to reach the magic mark of 600 Test wickets, and England will not be looking forward to facing him again. Not only did he take 10 wickets at Edgbaston, he has managed 17 wickets in his two Tests at Old Trafford. If Australia decide to pick Stuart MacGill, then England will also be worried. Though he hasn't played an Ashes Test over here and though he has actually lost twice to England, when MacGill and Warne played in tandem, they have won all three Ashes Tests, and have only lost two Tests in all. One other thing, the toss. Ricky Ponting made the mistake of putting England in at Edgbaston but he'd be well advised not to do the same at Old Trafford, should he win the toss. Of the 69 Tests played there, 25 have been won by the team batting first, while just 11 teams batting second have come out on top.

MAN OF THE MATCH

Warne is an understandable favourite to be named Man of the Match, at 11/2 (6.50). The spin wizard has won 15 Man of the Match awards in his 15 Tests, a ratio of around one every 8.5 matches. MacGill, by no means certain to play at Old Trafford, is 14/1 (15.00). He's won the award five times in his 33 Tests, at a marginally better ratio than Warne. Of course, this market is more often than not won by a member of the winning side and Andrew Flintoff and Kevin Pietersen are understandably high in the betting. Pietersen, who's been hugely impressive in his first two Tests, is 9/1 (10.00), while Flintoff, outstanding at Edgbaston, is 7/1 (8.00) second favourite. Marcus Trescothick is 9/1 (10.00) while Ricky Ponting, who can't be to far away from a big innings, is 10/1 (11.00) and Steve Harmison is 12/1 (13.00).

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