Tamim's costly miss, and Rohit's surge
According to Luck Index, Bangladesh could well have beaten India had Tamim Iqbal not grassed an early catch that Rohit Sharma offered
ESPNcricinfo stats team
02-Jul-2019
Rohit Sharma has been in the form of his life in World Cup 2019. The 104 he hit against Bangladesh was his fourth hundred of the tournament, emulating Kumar Sangakkara, who is the only other batsman to make four centuries in a single World Cup. Rohit also became only the second Indian, after Sachin Tendulkar in 1996 and 2003, to score more than 500 runs in a single World Cup.
While Rohit has amassed mountains of runs, he has also had his share of luck with spilled chances, though he has obviously been good enough, and ruthless enough, to fully capitalise on those opportunities. In seven innings, Rohit has been dropped five times: twice against South Africa, and once each against Australia, England and Bangladesh. In three of the four games, he has punished the opposition by going on to score a century. Overall in this World Cup, Rohit has scored 369 runs after being dropped, easily the highest among all batsmen in the tournament.
The latest let-off came when Tamim Iqbal made a mess of a regulation chance in the fifth over of India's innings. ESPNcricinfo's ball-by-ball commentary described it thus:
Mustafizur Rahman to Sharma, 1 run, dropped! Clumsy from Tamim! Short ball from Mustafizur on fourth stump, sucker ball really with Rohit aiming for the short boundary having hit a six over square leg in the first over. He doesn't get the elevation or timing on this, it hangs in the air for Tamim running to his left from deep square leg. He covers 15 yards and slows down his jog to steady himself but shells it badly at chest height. 4/10 on degree of difficulty but he spilled it badly.
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Rohit was then on 9, off 11 balls, and India were on 18 after 4.3 overs. He went on to score 104 off 92 balls, lifting India to a match-winning total of 314 for 9.
According to ESPNcricinfo's Luck Index, this drop by Tamim cost Bangladesh a whopping 47 runs; that is, had the catch been taken, India would have scored 47 fewer runs than they eventually did. This is calculated by simulating the game from the point Rohit was dropped, assuming the catch had been taken.
Rohit scored 95 from 81 balls after he was dropped. The simulation calculates that India would only have scored 48 off those balls, and would have finished on 267, a total which wouldn't have been enough for victory. According to Luck Index, the let-off effectively cost Bangladesh the game, and ended their World Cup 2019 semi-final aspirations.