The Murali factor could undo India
Since 2000, Muralitharan has taken 34 wickets at less than 19 against India. Kumble, on the other hand, averages 51 per wicket against Sri Lanka
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Eight of the last nine decisive games between the two teams have been won by the team batting second. That, coupled with the fact that the team bowling first has often benefited from the bowler-friendly conditions early in the day, suggests that the toss could be vital.
In Sanath Jayasuriya and Upul Tharanga, Sri Lanka have, on current form, the best opening pair in the tournament. Their average opening stand is 53.40 in 27 innings, while Sri Lanka's average in their last 20 games is 49. India, meanwhile, have been struggling to find a consistent opening pair, thanks largely to Virender Sehwag's insipid form, though Sourav Ganguly - with five half-centuries and a 48 in his last six innings - has bolstered the top order. India's average opening stand in their last 20 games is 25.89, only slightly more than half the Sri Lankan average.
Both teams have power-packed middle-orders, but the Sri Lankans hold the edge, averaging 42.19 per partnership for the second, third, fourth and fifth wickets, to India's 39.87. India's two most experienced hands in the middle order, Sachin Tendulkar and Rahul Dravid have done well against Sri Lanka - both average more than 45 - and will probably have a huge role to play on Friday.
India have a marginal advantage in terms of run-rates, scoring at 6.83 in the last ten compared with Sri Lanka's 6.59, but Sri Lanka's average partnership for the sixth, seventh and eighth wickets is 24.06, significantly more than India's 18.02, which highlights India's lower-order frailty.
India have dominated their recent exchanges against Sri Lanka, but the equation could be very different against a Sri Lankan side which will have both Chaminda Vaas and Muttiah Muralitharan in their line-up. Vaas has only had modest success against India - in 52 matches he averages more than 29 at an economy rate of 4.63, but Muralitharan has had the Indian batsmen - reckoned to be the best players of spin - in plenty of bother: in 21 matches against them since 2000, he has taken 34 wickets at less than 19, while conceding just 3.75 per over.
S Rajesh is stats editor of Cricinfo