Pakistan's World Cup begins with no margin for error

vs Netherlands, February 7, Colombo
vs USA, February 10, Colombo
vs Namibia, February 18, Colombo

There is only one place to start. The build-up to the 2026 T20 World Cup has been dominated not by which games to look forward to, but one specific game that Pakistan will not be playing. After the Pakistan government announced the team would not take the field for their game against India on February 15, cricket's most lucrative fixture, the ICC has been plunged into one of the gravest crises in its history.

That situation is fluid, but as things stand, it means Pakistan will start their tournament with a two-point deficit and a virtually insurmountable net run-rate to kick things off. It leaves them fairly clear-headed about the task they're faced with if they are to qualify for the next round; they must beat Netherlands, USA and Namibia, which would almost certainly get the job done.

On paper, they are fancied to do just that. They have spent the better part of last year playing an inordinate amount of T20I cricket, and even if suspicions about the quality of the sides they faced lingered, they proved more than a match for far superior sides to those three. However, Pakistan will be well aware of the last time they entered a T20 World Cup against a heavily fancied opponent, a memory that will only be sharpened when they take on USA on February 10.

On that front, Pakistan have some reputation salvaging to do. Their brand of capricious brilliance which made them so dangerous at ICC tournaments has given way of late to meek predictability; they have exited the last three men's ICC tournaments in the first round, including at the last T20 World Cup with that loss to USA. The two T20 World Cups before that saw them reach the final and the semi-final, though with T20 cricket having evolved since then, there are concerns that Pakistan may have been left behind. That is crystallised in their prevarication over Babar Azam's involvement within the set-up, who lost his place in the side before inexplicably regaining it just in time for the World Cup, even as he endured a horror BBL last month.

They play all their games in Sri Lanka, which should be an advantage as it cuts out travel fatigue. Last month they played a three-match T20I series there to acclimatise, even though one game was washed out and another heavily affected by rain. February in Colombo is less rainy, though with their heavy net run rate dent owing to that India forfeit, any washouts in games they need to win has the potential to complicate their path ahead. But Pakistan have played lots of T20I cricket, and they have won lots of T20I matches. If they can keep that run up for another three weeks, that, really, is all it might take.

The last nine months have seen Pakistan play more T20I cricket than any other side at the World Cup, with 34 matches. They have won an impressive 24 of them, including series wins over South Africa and Australia, and a run to the Asia Cup final. The main caveat is the somewhat dubious quality of the majority of their opponents, with the vast majority of games against sides outside the very elite T20I teams and, as was the case in the recent whitewash of Australia, teams that have come into bilateral series at well below full strength.

Pakistan will always have a soft spot for fast bowlers, but Abrar Ahmed may quietly have established himself as their most pivotal player in current circumstances. He has wanted for consistency in the past, but he was at his electric best as Pakistan brushed Australia aside last week, and was similarly sensational in the one completed game Pakistan played in Sri Lanka last month. That is part of a wider trend where Abrar has shunted mercurial mystery for dependability, and found a way to control his ostentatious variations without letting them take over.

In the slow, low conditions at the Asia Cup last year, he was the most economical bowler of the tournament with an economy rate of 5.36; the next lowest (minimum ten overs) was Kuldeep Yadav's 6.27. Since the start of 2025, he is Pakistan's second highest wicket-taker, making him that rare commodity - an attacking wicket-taking spinner who doesn't go for many runs. In Sri Lanka, that is likely worth its weight in gold.

Fakhar Zaman has seen it all in the Pakistan side over the last decade. He's lost form and recovered, been shunted around the batting order, fallen out with various administrations, and battled off persistent injury and health troubles. But such is the 35-year old's big-match reputation that by the time an ICC event rolls around, no Pakistan selection panel appears to want to name a squad which doesn't carry his name.

That was burnished, of course, in the final of the 2017 Champions Trophy, but Fakhar's T20 career, both international and domestic, more than justify the trust Pakistan have placed in him. In the past year, though, there are signs of fading powers that can't merely be put down to a temporary loss of form, plus the increased competition for places atop the order has led to him being crowded further down, where he is notably less effective.

In the last few games, he has come in at No. 5 with the powerplay restrictions he feasts on already abated; he has a lower average and strike rate at that position than anywhere else he has batted more than once. Right now, Fakhar looks like a weapon Pakistan are contriving a mode of deployment for. But if, one last time, Pakistan can find that use case for him, there lurks beneath the player who has justified Pakistan's faith so often.

1 Saim Ayub 2 Sahibzada Farhan 3 Salman Ali Agha (capt) 4 Fakhar Zaman 5 Usman Khan (wk) 6 Shadab Khan 7 Mohammad Nawaz 8 Shaheen Afridi 9 Abrar Ahmed 10 Salman Mirza 11 Naseem Shah

Remaining squad: Babar Azam, Usman Tariq Faheem Ashraf, Khawaja Nafay

Babar's place in Pakistan's best XI remains up for debate following an indifferent series against Australia. He started all three games, though the question of whether he did enough to make the case for a World Cup start is far from settled.