Spin, seam, or both? Mystery pitch leaves SA guessing ahead of Guwahati Test

At least no one knows what to expect.

With Guwahati playing host to its first Test, conditions are a mystery for everyone, and South Africa will hope to read them right as they go there in search of a first series win in India in 25 years. The first big decision they'll have to make is team selection, which will depend largely on what they think the surface will do, while leaving open the possibility of being completely surprised, like they were in Kolkata.

There, variable bounce from the first over set the tone for a low-scoring match. South Africa, in fact, said it actually became slightly better to bat on the third morning. In Guwahati, they anticipate run-scoring to be less hazardous but not necessarily easy. "What we heard is that it tends to be a good batting wicket up front, and it becomes a spinning wicket later on in the game," Piet Botha, South Africa's bowling coach said.

Even if there is a bias to spin, South Africa's first choice would be to have their premier seamer Kagiso Rabada back, if available. Rabada is still recovering from the rib injury that kept him out of the Kolkata Test and there remains uncertainty over his availability. He has not bowled since sustaining the injury in training last Tuesday in Kolkata. He did not train on Wednesday in Guwahati either, and the medical staff is expected to "make a call in the next 24 hours," Botha said.

If Rabada is fit, the question facing South Africa is whether he would be a straight swap for Corbin Bosch, who replaced Rabada in the first Test. Or, given how well Bosch batted, if they would look to tinker with the makeup of the team. One option would be to leave Wiaan Mulder out, given he only bowled five overs at Eden Gardens, and move Tony de Zorzi to No.3. de Zorzi was initially picked in that position but hasn't batted at No. 3 since the Cape Town Test in January 2024. He has spent most of his short Test career as an opener, but most recently batted at No. 5.

The more interesting question is what South Africa will do if Rabada is not available, because the options are many, starting with the simplest: change nothing. There's logic to sticking with a winning XI, especially one that came back from the brink of a big defeat to pull off a win like South Africa did last weekend. But if conditions are going to be different, an unchanged eleven would also go against Shukri Conrad's horses-for-courses approach.

Botha feels the early start will bring "a little bit moisture" to the red soil surface, which generally means more bounce on offer. Albeit still two days out from matchday, the pitch also has healthy grass covering, which makes Lungi Ngidi an obvious contender. Ngidi has not played a Test since the World Test Championship final at Lord's, where he was picked specifically because he offered more pace than South Africa's other choice, Dane Paterson, and for his ability to generate extra bounce. Though Ngidi had an expensive first innings, he returned to take 3 for 38 in the second. In the end, it was not bounce but seam movement that he exploited for his returns.

It won't worry South Africa that Ngidi's last ball red-ball match was five months ago, because they put faith in Ngidi against Australia when he hadn't played a Test for 10 months and it paid off. He has also been in action in other formats recently, and played in South Africa's white-ball matches in Australia, England and Pakistan, alongside a domestic match at home. Should he be picked, Ngidi is likely to replace Bosch, though that would leave South Africa a batter short.

Another choice, especially if there is significantly less grass by the time the match starts - paired with an expectation of bounce early, and then a crumbling surface later - would be to include an extra spinner. South Africa have left-arm spinner Senuran Muthusamy, who was player of the series in Pakistan, in the squad. Muthusamy could either replace Bosch or another of the batters, potentially Tristan Stubbs, who continues to struggle for form. With nine first-class hundreds to his name and a career-best of 89* in his last Test, Muthusamy is a solid lower-order batting option. Unlike Ngidi, he also would not shorten the line-up.

The challenge with including Muthusamy is that South Africa may be wary of more of the same, with Keshav Maharaj already providing left-arm spin. India's slew of left-handers would make another offspinner handy, so they may use Aiden Markram more - with Simon Harmer also in hand - and leave Muthusamy out.

All that said, there is also no harm in South Africa considering a tinker to the batting line-up, which was heavily reliant on Temba Bavuma and the lower order in the first Test. The jury is still out on the best No.3 option. Mulder currently occupies the spot, and while he is technically solid, he is perhaps too defensive, and his bowling may not be required anyway. Stubbs was initially given the spot and played five successive Tests at No. 3 last year. He could move up or out of the side altogether.

South Africa have a reserve batter in Zubayr Hamza, who Conrad said was "close to" playing in Pakistan but just missed out. Hamza comes off a good run of form for South Africa A, against India A in a pre-Test tour in Bengaluru, where he scored two half-centuries in two matches. He has batted at No.3 in Tests in four matches between 2019 and 2020, including the 2019 tour of India, where he scored a half-century in Ranchi.

A top six made up of Markram, Ryan Rickelton, Hamza, Bavuma, de Zorzi and then either Stubbs or Mulder is one option. Otherwise, South Africa might look at a specialist top five, with Kyle Verreynne at No.6, and a lower order that can simultaneously score runs and provide plenty of bowling options.