India the favourites for triangular series

The Indian Oil Cup may sound more like a buried treasure than a cricket competition but there will be plenty to play for when Sri Lanka, India and West Indies lock horns for a triangular one-day series starting on Saturday. India, who boast one of the world's top batting line-ups, begin the series as 4/6 (1.66) favourites, while hosts Sri Lanka are 13/10 (2.30) and West Indies massive outsiders at 12/1 (13.00).

Each team plays each other twice before the final, and it's hard to see West Indies getting that far, particularly given their depleted squad and the fact that they have to play on the slow Sri Lankan pitches - even though they will be close to those in the Caribbean. With no Brian Lara and several other established names missing because of contract disputes, Shivnarine Chanderpaul's young, raw side have a tough task on their hands, particularly as they have now lost their last eight one-day internationals. Add in the fact that they've lost their last six matches against Sri Lanka and three out of the last four against India, and this suddenly looks like a two-horse race.

Given the fact that India are missing the recuperating Sachin Tendulkar and former captain Saurav Ganguly, who is awaiting an appeal against his six-match ban for slow over-rates, it's a slight surprise to see them installed as favourites by bet365. The stats don't back up the bookies' decision either. Beaten 4-2 by Pakistan in their last one-day series, losing the last four matches of the series, they have won just seven of their last 20 matches. Though India and Sri Lanka have won nine matches each in their last 20 encounters in Sri Lanka, India have won just three and lost six matches in the past five years.

At home, Sri Lanka are even more formidable opposition. They have won 15 of their past 20 home matches, and haven't lost since being beaten by India in the Asia Cup in 2004. They followed up that defeat by beating India in the final of that competition.

Muralitharan to make the difference?
And then there's Murali. The great Muttiah Muralitharan returned after 11 months out to skittle West Indies in the second Test last week and looks right on top of his game. That's bad news for India, whose top players have struggled against him in recent times. In the past five years, captain Rahul Dravid has managed just two half -centuries in 15 one-day internationals against him, VVS Laxman has 163 runs in five matches and Virender Sehwag has made just 321 runs from 13 matches.

If Murali can maintain his form and if a couple of Sri Lanka's batsmen fire at the right time, I'd say the home side have a great chance of taking the trophy.

CAMBERS' CALL: Sri Lanka to win India Oil Cup - 13/10 at bet365

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