Wagging tails a dilemma for punters
Sporting Index have long been the kings when it comes to producing special markets and they haven't let us down with their Ashes offerings
Simon Cambers
20-Jul-2005
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Sporting Index have long been the kings when it comes to producing special markets and they haven't let us down with their Ashes offerings. One of my favourite markets is "Tails of the Unexpected", which concerns the total number of runs scored by a team's No 8, 9, 10 and 11 across the five-Test series. Sporting go 325-345 England, while they price Australia at 280-300.
Now this market is linked strongly to the outcome of the series. For example, if Australia win 5-0, it's highly unlikely that their own last four batsmen will have batted twice in each innings and therefore you'd expect their make-up is likely to be lower than England, whose side will, barring declarations, have been bowled out twice. However, conversely, when a team is on top, the lower order often contribute well to their cause and the make-up can be surprisingly high.
The real spanner in the works, for both buyers and sellers, comes when a nightwatchman is used, as it pushes a more specialist batsman to bat at No 8.
In the last three home Ashes series, England's make-ups were 317 (2001), 269 (1997) and 467 (1993). Two of those series had six Tests, so the overall average per game is 62, which would translate to 310. Australia's make-ups were 89 (2001), 408 (1997) and 376 (1993), making an overall average of 49.48, translating to 247 this season.
England's likely bottom four is Ashley Giles, Steve Harmison, Simon Jones and Mathew Hoggard. If they were to play to their average, and bat twice in each match, it'd be 520. Australia (with Shane Warne, Brett Lee, Michael Kasprowicz and Glenn McGrath the likely men), would be exactly the same.
If anything, England's spread looks a tad too high, especially as McGrath and Warne are superb bowlers at the tail, but it takes a strong nerve on markets like this.
Of the rest of the specials, Sporting make the highest individual score 213-220, which may be a touch high as the best innings in the last three home Ashes series were 173, 207 and 200.
The lowest all-out score is et at 135-145, while the highest innings total is 580-595. And an interesting one is "Stop at a stumping", which is 25-28, with ten points per Test without one. Shane Warne has 30 victims through stumpings in 583 overall, while Giles, who is likely to be bowling a lot, has just eight in 127.
Please note that odds are correct at time of publication and are subject to change.
Simon Cambers is Cricinfo's new betting correspondent