WPL 2026 scenarios - Four teams in contention for two playoff spots

Royal Challengers Bengaluru - Points 10, NRR 1.236

Remaining games: MI (Jan 26), UPW (Jan 29)

RCB's winning streak gave them a chance to qualify directly for the final, but it is on hold following their defeat to Delhi Capitals. They remain favourites to get there, though, needing just one win out of their remaining two games. Even if they lose both, they're likely to finish as table-toppers because of their net run-rate. The winner of Tuesday's encounter between DC and Gujarat Giants will be the only team with a chance of matching RCB on points.

Delhi Capitals - Points 6, NRR -0.169

Remaining games: GG (Jan 27), UPW (Feb 1)

A convincing win on Saturday against RCB held the Delhi Capitals' campaign together as they now stand second on the points table. Winning their remaining games will ensure DC finish in the top two without depending on other results or net run-rate scenarios.

However, if DC lose their last two matches, they are unlikely to qualify for the playoffs because then they will then have to hope Mumbai Indians and UP Warriorz lose at least one more match and even after that, there will be net run-rate issues.

DC may have a safe passage if they win at least one of their next two matches. If DC win their upcoming match against GG, they will only need to ensure they don't lose to UPW by a considerable margin (assuming UPW beat RCB before then).

If DC lose to GG but beat UPW, they should keep an eye on GG and MI's net run-rates ahead of Sunday's fixture (assuming MI beat RCB before then).

Gujarat Giants - Points 6, NRR -0.341

Remaining games: DC (Jan 27), MI (Jan 30)

Winning their remaining matches will add 'Q' beside Gujarat Giants in the points table and also give them an outside chance of making it to the final directly.

GG can't expect to qualify without winning any of their remaining games. They face DC and MI and if DC win they will move ahead with eight points, while MI will equal GG on six. Even considering RCB beats MI on Monday, MI will likely have a better net run-rate and stay above GG.

GG has to win at least one of their next two matches to make it to the playoffs but even then, it won't be easy given their net run-rate, which is currently ahead of only UPW's.

If GG loses to DC before defeating MI, they would only need to ensure their net run-rate is higher than UPW's (assuming UPW beat RCB before then).

If GG lose to MI after beating DC, they have to hope their win margin against DC is large enough to earn a net run-rate cushion. Otherwise, GG will need MI to lose to RCB or DC to lose to UPW (assuming UPW's net run rate remains below GG's despite two more wins; otherwise, GG will also require RCB to defeat UPW).

Mumbai Indians - Points 4, NRR 0.046

Remaining games: RCB (Jan 26), GG (Jan 30)

The two-time and defending champions of the WPL are in a playoff qualification tangle for the first time following a hat-trick of defeats. Not losing by a significant margin, however, has ensured MI have the highest net run-rate among the four teams in contention.

Winning their remaining two matches should see MI through to the playoffs, considering only one of DC and GG have a chance to finish with more than eight points and get into the top three. Six points will be enough for MI, but only if other results go in their way.

MI can't afford to lose to GG even after defeating RCB if GG lose to DC on Tuesday. Assuming MI defeats RCB but loses to GG, they have to hope DC lose their remaining two matches and that UPW go down against RCB on Thursday.

But if GG defeat DC, then MI have an outside chance even if they lose to RCB on Monday. They should defeat GG on Friday, but before that, they must hope RCB beat UPW on Thursday, and then DC lose to UPW on Sunday.

All the above scenarios will become irrelevant if MI fail to hold on to their advantage of having a better net run-rate. A big defeat to RCB (or GG) could make things very tricky.

UP Warriorz - Points 4, NRR -0.769

Remaining games: RCB (Jan 29), DC (Feb 1)

UP Warriorz, currently at the bottom of the table, also have the worst net run-rate among all teams. It will play a key role in their qualification, as two or more teams in contention could end up with equal points.

UPW have to win their remaining two games. Even then, other results need to go in their favour - either GG winning both their games or RCB defeating MI in addition to GG losing both their matches.

If UPW lose one of their remaining games, they will need a miracle to make the top three. The best possible case for them to go through with six points will be if their third win is against DC.

At the same time, they need MI to lose their remaining two matches and GG to defeat DC as well. They would still need to boost their net run-rate in this scenario to move ahead of DC. Considering the last league match is between UPW and DC, the UP franchise will be well aware of their net run-rate equation going into that fixture.