Zimbabwe's first Test in England: It won't be hairy

Zimbabwe make their historic Test debut at Lord's this morning. Ticket sales are more hysterical than historical but those that do bother to turn up (about 8,000 of them, judging by current figures) will see a rare England win. If Zimbabwe triumph, I'll shave my head.

Footballing legend Rodney Marsh made a similar declaration about Bradford which has subsequently gone hair-shaped: He said he's shave his greying locks if the Tyke Terriers survived their first season in the Premiership. Rodders is now due an appointment with a sheep shearer after Bradford's Great Escape at Wimbledon's expense last Sunday.

Luckily for my awful 70s mullet, this prediction has no chance of going wrong. In fact, I'd go as far as to say Bradford City football club could probably beat Zimbabwe's club-strength cricketers with a following wind and a sympathetic umpire/bookmaker.

I wrote last week about the conditions these African minnows are currently labouring under. With the Zimbabwe dollar falling faster than Shane Warne's batting average, the poor lambs are barely making enough money to cover phone calls from their plush ECB-funded hotels.

I know that one Zimbabwean cricket player now faces a fine for speaking to me about their problems, particularly the revelation that their bus driver is on better wages than any of the cricketers in the party. But it was all true. Another player, who for obvious reasons chose not to name himself, told me yesterday: "The players were only too happy for the story to get out. But the authorities think it was all a bit close to the bone. Your source is in real trouble with the committee. And so are you."

Oh dear.

On top of their dwindling pay packets, Zimbabwe's non-world-beaters are playing pretty poor cricket at the moment. Although Sussex and Essex were beaten in one-day knockabouts, in their first class encounters the Zimbabweans were walloped by Kent (right in the middle of their pay revolt which, as I revealed last week, nearly ended the tour) and they could only draw with Hampshire and Essex. Having suffered the tail end of the wettest April on record the Zims have never really got going since arriving from a disappointing two-month stint in the West Indies (for which the average player received less than #1,000).

All in all, this Zimbabwean side, for all the current bluster, are demoralised, impoverished and out of form. Neil Johnson has finally scored runs and Henry Olonga produced a career-best 45 at Chelmsford, but in truth Zimbabwe - whose domestic competition consists basically of two teams - simply don't have the resources. They haven't got a hope.

That's why Lord's will probably only be half full this morning when the Test gets underway.

Captain Andy Flower, not the most relaxed of men right now judging by his grim visage in Chelmsford last week, says: "I will be excited to lead the side out at Lord's but we've got to perform.

"We are huge underdogs against a side with a strong bowling attack. You've got to be mentally strong to score runs at this level and I don't think we are displaying enough of that mental strength."

Then a total contradiction straight from the heart: "I believe in our guys, I believe in our team and I believe we are determined enough to do well."

Sadly for Zimbabwe and their fans - some of whom are promising to turn up with anti-Mugabe placards - determination isn't enough to make up for the gulf if talent.

England will show no sympathy for these sorry tourists either. Nasser Hussain recalls: "Some of us will remember the tour over there, which was far from happy.

"And when they've beaten us in the odd one-dayer with some chicken farmer taking a hat-trick, they didn't look too sorry for us."

But perhaps the best person to speak to about this one is David "Bumble" Lloyd, the former England coach whose recently published autobiography has created a bit of stir in these parts. Lloyd reckons: "England have to win this one. What we need to do is win the toss, bat and put 450 on the board. We haven't done that for a long time."

It was Lloyd who said, after the first ever drawn Test in 1996, "we flipping murdered them", a comment which did little for his career ambitions. He admits: "Zimbabwe's big asset is that they're an in-your-face team. Heath Streak is a top class player but has been suffering from injuries and they are not as good as they were a few years ago."

And as Bumble knows, they weren't very good then. This won't be a hairy ride for England.