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The batsmen tend to get analysed lot more and it is now the turn of Test bowlers. Two not-so-normal measures will be discussed in the next two posts.
How does one measure a Test bowler's consistency. Complex statistical measures will neither indicate the real consistency nor be understood by all. If I pepper this article with words such as Sigma, Skew, Mean deviation or Variance, I would have lost more than half the readers. What is needed is a cricketing definition of consistency and a simple easy-to-understand methodology which will be understood by all readers.
What makes a consistent bowler? The answer is easy: one who bowls good spells most of the time. How does one define a good spell? There are many definitions, most of which would be too subjective. The only objective measure we have is the "wickets captured" information. The importance of taking wickets in Test matches is also incorporated in this computation.
Taking the 1860-plus Tests which have been played so far, on an average a pace bowler takes a wicket every 66 balls, while the strike-rate for a spinner is 80 balls. At the two extremes are George Lohmann, with a strike-rate of 34, and Carl Hooper with a strike-rate (if you can define it thus) of 120. Taking all these factors into consideration, I have taken 66 balls in an innings for the pace bowlers and 78 balls for spinners as base figures to determine whether a bowler has bowled a relevant spell or not.
First we determine the number of relevant spells, which is defined as an innings in which a bowler has - depending on whether he is a spinner or a fast bowler - bowled at least 78 or 66 balls, or an innings in which the bowler has captured a wicket or more. Then we determine the number of successful spells - the bowling stints in which the bowler has taken at least one wicket. We then derive the Bowler Consistency Index. In ODIs, a wicketless spell, such as Kapil Dev's 7.0-4-4-0 against West Indies could be an outstanding one because of the economy factor, but not in Tests. A bowler such as Bapu Nadkarni in 1964 in Chennai with a spell of 32-27-5-0 would today be booed off, as also Ken Barrington and Brian Bolus, the immobile batsmen.
Let us see the table. These are current upto the fourth test between Australia and India in Adelaide.
Bowler Consistency Analysis - Min 30 spells No Bowler Bow Team Mat <------Spells-----> Consistency Relevant Successful Index 1. Bond S.E RFM Nzl 17 30 30 100.00 2. Jones S.P RFM Eng 18 30 30 100.00 3. Reid B.A LFM Aus 27 39 38 97.44 4. Muralitharan M ROB Slk 118 201 195 97.01 5. Miller C.R ROB Aus 18 30 29 96.67 6. Dillon M RFM Win 38 55 53 96.36 7. Bedi B.S LSP Ind 67 107 103 96.26 8. Barnes S.F RFM Eng 27 48 46 95.83 9. Grimmett C.V RLB Aus 37 66 63 95.45 10. Briggs J LSP Eng 33 42 40 95.24 11. Adcock N.A.T RF Saf 26 41 39 95.12 12. Donald A.A RF Saf 72 124 117 94.35 13. Blythe C LSP Eng 19 35 33 94.29 14. Giffen G ROB Aus 31 35 33 94.29 15. Vincent C.L LSP Saf 25 35 33 94.29 16. Flintoff A RFM Eng 67 101 95 94.06 17. Croft C.E.H RF Win 27 50 47 94.00 18. Kumble A RLB Ind 125 215 202 93.95 19. Lever J.K LFM Eng 21 33 31 93.94 20. Trueman F.S RF Eng 67 115 108 93.91 21. Wasim Akram LFM Pak 104 161 151 93.79 22. Steyn D.W RFM Saf 18 32 30 93.75 23. Tauseef Ahmed ROB Pak 34 47 44 93.62 24. Robins R.W.V RLB Eng 19 31 29 93.55 25. MacGill S.C.G RLB Aus 42 76 71 93.42(Click here for the full table.)
The two injury-prone speedsters Shane Bond and Simon Jones have bowled 30 successful spells in their career, a 100% record. In fact Bond has the unique distinction of never having gone wicketless in an innings in his entire career: his three sub-11-over spells have also been fruitful. Muralitharan has bowled over 200 spells and has gone wicketless in only six of these, which is the very definition of consistency. Then we have a few vintage greats. Bishan Bedi Allan Donald are in the top 15. Andrew Flintoff, Anil Kumble, Wasim Akram and Stuart MacGill are in the top 25.
Note the very high degree of consistency of otherwise pedestrian bowlers like Mervyn Dillon, Colin Miller and Tauseef Ahmed.
Just as a matter of interest, the last five bowlers in this group are listed below. The last two places are filled, as expected, by one part-timer from West Indies, known more for his batting prowess, and an Australian spinner of limited skills.
Julien B.D LSP Win 24 40 27 67.50 Mackay K.D RFM Aus 37 39 26 66.67 Whittall G.J RFM Zim 46 38 25 65.79 Hooper ROB Win 102 99 64 64.65 Bright SLA Aus 25 31 20 64.52The six unsuccessful spells of Muralitharan are given below. Note the long gap between such rare instances, especially between 1999 and 2006, when he went 55 Tests without missing out even once.
1306 1995 Pak 17.0 3 53 0 1358 1997 Nzl 33.0 6 136 0 1387 1997 Ind 46.0 9 137 0 1416 1998 Nzl 23.0 9 33 0 1474 1999 Zim 24.0 6 51 0 and after 7 years 1796 2006 Pak 13.0 3 46 0In view of the number of comments made, I have tried to answer these in the blog itself.
1. This is only an "invented" common-sense based analysis. Do not read more into this than that.
2. If we do a list of triple-centurions, we will have Lawrence Rowe, Bob Cowper and John Edrich in that list. We will not have Tendulkar, Dravid, Ponting and Richards there. Does it make them any less greater batsmen. Take this list like that.
3. Maybe 30 spells is too low. It shoud be increased to 50 spells. However I could not resist the temptation to include Bond (for his pure career).
4.What I have written here is a simple definition of consistency which is totally different to strike rate or bowling average or bowling accuracy. If a batsman scores 100 and 0, and another batsman scores 40 and 40, the later would be considered more consistent while the former's average would be higher. Similarly a bowler who has captured 20 wickets in 5 tests at the rate of 4 wickets per test would be considered more consistent than one who captures 8, 0, 8, 0, and 8 wickets even though the later might have captured more wickets at possibly better strike rate.
5. I have used "spell" to denote the bowling effort during an innings for want of a suitable word. A more apt word might be "Innings analysis".
6. The next blog will answer some of the questions raised.
7. A full list of qualifying bowlers will be made available shortly so that readers can check all the bowlers themselves. The list has been mailed individually to readers whose comments indicated a need to look at such a list.
Anantha Narayanan has written for ESPNcricinfo and CastrolCricket and worked with a number of companies on their cricket performance ratings-related systemsFeeds: Anantha Narayanan
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Anantha spent the first half of his four-decade working career with corporates like IBM, Shaw Wallace, NCR, Sime Darby and the Spinneys group in IT-related positions. In the second half, he has worked on cricket simulation, ratings, data mining, analysis and writing, amongst other things. He was the creator of the Wisden 100 lists, released in 2001. He has written for ESPNcricinfo and CastrolCricket, and worked extensively with Maruti Motors, Idea Cellular and Castrol on their performance ratings-related systems. He is an armchair connoisseur of most sports. His other passion is tennis, and he thinks Roger Federer is the greatest sportsman to have walked on earth.