December 11, 2008

Everything points to an England win

With their total lack of preparation, chaotic travel arrangements, almost complete absence of public expectation and rampantly in-form opposition, it now seems inconceivable that England can do anything other than win
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Cricket makes a welcome return to the world of cricket today with the beginning of two Test series. As I write, the loser-takes-all New Zealand v West Indies clash has just begun, with bragging rights as Test cricket’s second most useless team up for grabs. Shortly, and thankfully, the India-England series will commence. With their total lack of preparation, chaotic travel arrangements, almost complete absence of public expectation and rampantly in-form opposition, it now seems inconceivable that England can do anything other than win. Everything is stacked in their favour.

Allow me to explain. Preparation is overrated. Before the 1954-55 Ashes series, England began their tour with a two-day match followed by six four-day matches. Hutton’s men must have been primed for first-Test action in a way of which a modern team’s management and backroom staff could only dream. If such an elongated build-up were possible in today’s hectic cricketing age, dressing-room laptops would be exploding with excessive analysis.

When the real action finally began, however, England promptly conceded 601-8 to Australia’s batsmen, before losing a high-class top four of Hutton, Simpson, Edrich and May for just 25, and eventually being comprehensively drubbed by an innings and 154 runs. Even a highly-trained 21st-century coach would have struggled to take many positives from a defeat like that – “the boys have learnt not to bother building up for matches,” he might have said. “It’s a valuable, money-saving lesson for future tours. We should have listened to Compton.” (England did admittedly recover to win the series 3-1. But they would have won 5-0 if they had pitched up two days before the first Test and winged it.)

Alastair Cook will also testify to the futility of advance planning and acclimatisation. On his surprise Test debut on England’s last tour of India in March 2006, he scored 60 and 104 not out, thriving due to having endured two gruelling days of travel, and having no time to adjust to subcontinental conditions.

In fact, given Cook’s relatively mediocre recent form – an average of 37 and just one century in his last 17 Tests, compared with a 48 average and six hundreds in his first 17 – there is an argument that the young Essex opener should forcibly bundled onto an aeroplane and flown around for 15,000 miles before every match. Ideally, he should land on an airstrip near the stadium three minutes before the start of play, handed a bat, and ushered out to the crease before he has the chance to start worrying about all the different ways you can edge a drive into the slips without moving your feet.

Furthermore, the fact that virtually no-one expects England to win, and few will criticise them even if they are soundly beaten, may work in their favour. It should enable them to play with a freedom which they have arguably lacked since winning the Ashes in 2005 raised their supporters’ expectations to total and utter world domination, and which they have certainly lacked since implausibly pulling one of the great defeats from the jaws of a comfortable draw at Adelaide in 2006.

And finally, India may just have beaten Australia, but when they last did so in the legendary 2000-01 rubber, they followed it up by drawing with Zimbabwe (let me repeat that: drawing, with Zimbabwe), and then losing their next two series. Whereas the last time England lost to South Africa (1999-2000), they responded by winning their next four series. England, statistically as well as practically, cannot lose.

Andy Zaltzman is a stand-up comedian, a regular on the BBC Radio 4, and a writer

Comments have now been closed for this article

  • R Sivasubramaniam on December 13, 2008, 23:47 GMT

    Hi Andy I wish I had taken your predictions seriously, could have made a fortune. What is your forecast for the Mohali Test? Siva from Singapore

  • James on December 13, 2008, 7:55 GMT

    Well England could well have a bit of the dark horse about them, good on them for going, it speaks volumes about cricket building bridges of international friendship.

  • Nampally on December 12, 2008, 16:11 GMT

    Not so fast Sir. As Yogi Berra said "it isn't over till its over". Day 3 might hold surprises for England and India could easily reverse the tables.Lets Go Dhoni/India!.

  • Shak on December 12, 2008, 14:46 GMT

    Yeah maybe he wasn't. 2 days have gone by and everybody with match practice, on both sides, have failed. Andy isn't a satirist, he is god. :)

  • Sridhar on December 12, 2008, 12:42 GMT

    What a prescient article, I must say! Congrats to England, the way they have got on top in the first 2 days

  • hipocrites in a humor blog on December 12, 2008, 9:18 GMT

    The initial part on WI-NZ series is devine could not control my laugh.

    yeah ok and now it seems the latest rule in this blog is to act touch on this poor bloke 'Ravi' and be noted as a respected regular of andy's funny blog. Wow thats a lot of goat herd there in you blog funnyman.

  • 112211de on December 12, 2008, 3:52 GMT

    hey shak mayb andy is not being satirical:

    Posted by: Shak 13 hours, 27 minutes ago

    Uhh did you just get that Ravi? Andy is obviously a satarist giving his own twisted view of the game. I like it very much and would ask him to continue his good work. Hell he even predicted what would happen. The only two batsmen without match practice actually score runs.

    and it continues.....

  • saurabh on December 11, 2008, 17:18 GMT

    Andy, you are not quite on the same level your namesake the Legend from WI Mr.Roberts but you sure are reaching there with your satire :)

  • fardoc on December 11, 2008, 17:01 GMT

    Good doosra, Ravi!

  • Tushar on December 11, 2008, 16:46 GMT

    Good one mate.

    When I heard last, BCCI had an opening for a consultant. Why don't you apply?

  • R Sivasubramaniam on December 13, 2008, 23:47 GMT

    Hi Andy I wish I had taken your predictions seriously, could have made a fortune. What is your forecast for the Mohali Test? Siva from Singapore

  • James on December 13, 2008, 7:55 GMT

    Well England could well have a bit of the dark horse about them, good on them for going, it speaks volumes about cricket building bridges of international friendship.

  • Nampally on December 12, 2008, 16:11 GMT

    Not so fast Sir. As Yogi Berra said "it isn't over till its over". Day 3 might hold surprises for England and India could easily reverse the tables.Lets Go Dhoni/India!.

  • Shak on December 12, 2008, 14:46 GMT

    Yeah maybe he wasn't. 2 days have gone by and everybody with match practice, on both sides, have failed. Andy isn't a satirist, he is god. :)

  • Sridhar on December 12, 2008, 12:42 GMT

    What a prescient article, I must say! Congrats to England, the way they have got on top in the first 2 days

  • hipocrites in a humor blog on December 12, 2008, 9:18 GMT

    The initial part on WI-NZ series is devine could not control my laugh.

    yeah ok and now it seems the latest rule in this blog is to act touch on this poor bloke 'Ravi' and be noted as a respected regular of andy's funny blog. Wow thats a lot of goat herd there in you blog funnyman.

  • 112211de on December 12, 2008, 3:52 GMT

    hey shak mayb andy is not being satirical:

    Posted by: Shak 13 hours, 27 minutes ago

    Uhh did you just get that Ravi? Andy is obviously a satarist giving his own twisted view of the game. I like it very much and would ask him to continue his good work. Hell he even predicted what would happen. The only two batsmen without match practice actually score runs.

    and it continues.....

  • saurabh on December 11, 2008, 17:18 GMT

    Andy, you are not quite on the same level your namesake the Legend from WI Mr.Roberts but you sure are reaching there with your satire :)

  • fardoc on December 11, 2008, 17:01 GMT

    Good doosra, Ravi!

  • Tushar on December 11, 2008, 16:46 GMT

    Good one mate.

    When I heard last, BCCI had an opening for a consultant. Why don't you apply?

  • Nitin on December 11, 2008, 15:51 GMT

    lol...yay for comedy

  • saurabh somani on December 11, 2008, 15:41 GMT

    ravi, you must be sherlock holmes reincarnated. andy and sarcasm? wow! did not see that one coming! btw, great piece as usual andy!

  • Hemant Gandhi on December 11, 2008, 15:14 GMT

    World needs 'lots' of Andy...

    Keep going fella....

  • Shak on December 11, 2008, 14:11 GMT

    Uhh did you just get that Ravi? Andy is obviously a satarist giving his own twisted view of the game. I like it very much and would ask him to continue his good work. Hell he even predicted what would happen. The only two batsmen without match practice actually score runs. Well done Andy.

  • John on December 11, 2008, 14:03 GMT

    you are the man, ravi

  • Ska on December 11, 2008, 13:58 GMT

    Whatever!! Made good reading.

  • Ska on December 11, 2008, 13:49 GMT

    Whatever!! Made good reading.

  • Mat on December 11, 2008, 13:29 GMT

    Well spotted, Ravi.

  • knit-in on December 11, 2008, 13:14 GMT

    Ever heard of something called satire, my friend?

    This column is always a hoot. :-D Thank you!

  • Meldrew on December 11, 2008, 13:09 GMT

    Sarcasm? In a humorous blog Ravi? You must be mistaken. I don't belieeve it.

  • Sidney on December 11, 2008, 12:59 GMT

    Well deduced Ravi. You must be related to Sherlock Holmes.*

    * Note to Ravi, this is also sarcasm.

  • ravi on December 11, 2008, 12:37 GMT

    those comments are so stupid and ridiculous, it is so stupid and farfetched i am starting to think when he says everyting points in an england win he is being sacastic

  • Shilp on December 11, 2008, 12:33 GMT

    Hahaha...funny, but not very convincing. By this logic, England MUST lose everything between now and the Ashes, go there completely unprepared and shock the world by being competitive (winning it is a bit stretched, EVEN with this logic)! :P

  • Prakash on December 11, 2008, 12:33 GMT

    Man, I see you as a Potential coach for India next summer. Keep up the good work...

  • Balkrishna on December 11, 2008, 12:13 GMT

    by the way what happened to australia and south africa after their previous losses to india and england respectively :-)

  • rcokz! on December 11, 2008, 12:07 GMT

    Only statistics that matter is averages...rest are crap and England will lose for sure! I cant see any other team lose the sound platform given by its openers on first day flat wicket!

  • Felix on December 11, 2008, 12:06 GMT

    You have been proved right! ^_^

    Andrew Strauss and Alaistar cook had little or no match practice in the ODI tour and they were the only English Batsmen to perform well on the first day of the first test. Collingwood, Pietersen and Bell, who played 5 ODI's before the tests, enough to get them used to the Indian Conditions, fared badly (Collingwood was unlucky though)!

  • Aashish on December 11, 2008, 11:29 GMT

    priceless, impeccable logic ! hard to refute this when Strauss has already scored a century and Cook 52. I must say Andy, ol' chap, you've got it right on the button !

  • Krishna on December 11, 2008, 6:44 GMT

    Hidden in your 'usual' is an essential and ancient Truth--defeats are generated automatically by hyperbole and excessive data. May I suggest that henceforth ECB and maybe even ICC plan the FTP in such a way that one-test series are conducted in Brazil this week and Tokyo the next;Timbuktoo followed by Nevada and so forth. After 4 years they can challenge Ian Wright in the Discovery of as yet unknown lands & climes.

  • redneck on December 11, 2008, 6:05 GMT

    gold! cant argue with that logic! and its statisticly proven? also love the bit about new zealand v west indies at the start. gold!

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  • redneck on December 11, 2008, 6:05 GMT

    gold! cant argue with that logic! and its statisticly proven? also love the bit about new zealand v west indies at the start. gold!

  • Krishna on December 11, 2008, 6:44 GMT

    Hidden in your 'usual' is an essential and ancient Truth--defeats are generated automatically by hyperbole and excessive data. May I suggest that henceforth ECB and maybe even ICC plan the FTP in such a way that one-test series are conducted in Brazil this week and Tokyo the next;Timbuktoo followed by Nevada and so forth. After 4 years they can challenge Ian Wright in the Discovery of as yet unknown lands & climes.

  • Aashish on December 11, 2008, 11:29 GMT

    priceless, impeccable logic ! hard to refute this when Strauss has already scored a century and Cook 52. I must say Andy, ol' chap, you've got it right on the button !

  • Felix on December 11, 2008, 12:06 GMT

    You have been proved right! ^_^

    Andrew Strauss and Alaistar cook had little or no match practice in the ODI tour and they were the only English Batsmen to perform well on the first day of the first test. Collingwood, Pietersen and Bell, who played 5 ODI's before the tests, enough to get them used to the Indian Conditions, fared badly (Collingwood was unlucky though)!

  • rcokz! on December 11, 2008, 12:07 GMT

    Only statistics that matter is averages...rest are crap and England will lose for sure! I cant see any other team lose the sound platform given by its openers on first day flat wicket!

  • Balkrishna on December 11, 2008, 12:13 GMT

    by the way what happened to australia and south africa after their previous losses to india and england respectively :-)

  • Prakash on December 11, 2008, 12:33 GMT

    Man, I see you as a Potential coach for India next summer. Keep up the good work...

  • Shilp on December 11, 2008, 12:33 GMT

    Hahaha...funny, but not very convincing. By this logic, England MUST lose everything between now and the Ashes, go there completely unprepared and shock the world by being competitive (winning it is a bit stretched, EVEN with this logic)! :P

  • ravi on December 11, 2008, 12:37 GMT

    those comments are so stupid and ridiculous, it is so stupid and farfetched i am starting to think when he says everyting points in an england win he is being sacastic

  • Sidney on December 11, 2008, 12:59 GMT

    Well deduced Ravi. You must be related to Sherlock Holmes.*

    * Note to Ravi, this is also sarcasm.