Afghanistan in must-win territory, Sri Lanka look to avoid big defeat

The headline is that Afghanistan absolutely have to win in order to make the Super Four, or else Bangladesh get in ahead of them. Sri Lanka merely have to avoid being handed an all-time thrashing.

If Sri Lanka bat first and make 150, for example, Afghanistan would have to chase that target down in 11.4 overs in order to knock Sri Lanka out and have Bangladesh accompany them to the Super Four. If Afghanistan bat first and make 150, Sri Lanka would have to score 84 or fewer for Bangladesh to qualify.

Essentially, Afghanistan need to win. Bangladesh would ideally like Sri Lanka to win. But if Sri Lanka lose, Bangladesh need them to lose by a gargantuan margin.

This is what cricket is like midway through the third decade of the 21st century. India and Pakistan won't shake hands after a match, but organisers insist on them playing each other at every major tournament nevertheless. This Asia Cup is structured to give them the best chance of having at least two meetings. Everyone else has little choice but to accept that competitive equilibrium must now be laid on the altar of capitalism.

Sri Lanka, for the record, are very capable of collapsing. They almost lost against Hong Kong on Monday, their middle order entering a familiar nosedive following another Pathum Nissanka fifty. You only have to look back to about three weeks for an occasion in which they were all out in double figures - Zimbabwe rolling them for 80 in Harare. Afghanistan are also a team they have lost to three times in their eight T20I meetings.

Both teams' strengths over the last several years, however, have been their bowlers. Afghanistan have Rashid Khan, and Sri Lanka Wanindu Hasaranga - both excellent legspinners who add plenty with the bat. Both teams also tend to rely on allrounders and have flexibility built into their T20 play. There is also fragility to both batting orders and suspicions over whether their lower middle orders are up to scratch against the best teams in the world.

The pressure to win, though, is on Afghanistan. Sri Lanka will be fine just muddling through. If they get through to the Super Four, they will back themselves to regroup as they did in 2022, when they won this tournament. Afghanistan scrambled mighty tournament charges even more recently, though, when they got to the semi-finals of last year's T20 World Cup.

Sri Lanka: WWWLW (last five T20Is, most recent first)
Afghanistan: LWLWW

Rahmanullah Gurbaz has hit 248 runs at a strike rate of 172 against Sri Lanka in six T20I matches. These are outstanding numbers, but perhaps unsurprising ones when you consider that he has been a regular player in the Lanka Premier League, often playing in the more successful teams. He has played alongside the likes of Hasaranga, Maheesh Theekshana, and Binura Fernando, so he has a better idea than most about the challenges Sri Lanka's bowling unit will present. Given his stats against Sri Lanka, his team-mates will probably pay attention.

Dushmantha Chameera has, in his most recent run in international cricket, begun to carve out a niche as Sri Lanka's most dependable fast bowler. He still pushes 145kph when in good rhythm, but importantly, he has learned to combine that pace with excellent control. The yorkers at the end of the innings are in especially good shape at the moment, and there are death overs when he bowls full and wide, almost exclusively, and has found success with that method. Sri Lanka's strategy, generally, is to use him to take wickets with two overs in the powerplay, then have him shut out scoring options with two overs at the death.

Abu Dhabi tends to be one of the higher-scoring venues in the UAE, although slower bowlers have still got purchase there in this tournament.

Although licking their wounds after the loss to Bangladesh, Afghanistan may keep the same XI.

Afghanistan (probable): 1 Saqidullah Ataq, 2 Rahmanullah Gurbaz (wk), 3 Ibrahim Zadran, 4 Gulbadin Naib, 5 Mohammad Nabi, 6 Azmatullah Omarzai, 7 Karim Janat, 8 Rashid Khan (capt.), 9 Noor Ahmad, 10 AM Ghazanfar, 11 Fazalhaq Farooqi

Sri Lanka will also likely ride with the same crew. Theekshana went wicketless against Hong Kong, but maintained a good economy rate. Matheesha Pathirana and Fernando may have to sit out.

Sri Lanka (probable): 1 Pathum Nissanka, 2 Kusal Mendis (wk), 3 Kamil Mishara, 4 Kusal Perera, 5 Charith Asalanka (capt.), 6 Kamindu Mendis, 7 Dasun Shanaka, 8 Wanindu Hasaranga, 9 Dushmantha Chameera, 10 Maheesh Theekshana, 11 Nuwan Thushara