Final lap of the qualification marathon

The final round of the Ranji Trophy begins on February 6, and five quarter-final spots are up for grabs. Only Karnataka, Delhi and Assam are assured a knockout berth, having secured enough points to top their respective groups. Which could be the five teams that join them? Here is a look at the possible scenarios.

Group A

Teams	Mat	Won	Lost	Tied	Draw	Aban	Pts	Quotient	For	Against

Karnataka 7 4 0 0 3 0 32 1.714 3875/96 2943/125

Tamil Nadu 7 3 1 0 3 0 23 1.200 3249/102 2867/108

Baroda 7 1 1 0 5 0 18 1.168 3218/95 3481/120

Mumbai 7 2 2 0 3 0 17 0.955 3052/105 2952/97

Madhya Pradesh 7 1 1 0 5 0 16 1.034 3185/100 3172/103

Railways 7 0 1 0 6 0 16 0.974 2237/90 2577/101

Jammu & Kashmir 8 1 3 0 4 0 12 0.601 2912/125 3452/89

Bengal 7 0 1 0 6 0 12 0.921 3330/95 2854/75

Uttar Pradesh 7 1 3 0 3 0 9 0.661 2172/93 2932/83

Seven out of nine teams are still in the hunt. Sitting second behind Karnataka on 23 points, Tamil Nadu can make it with just one more point in their away match against Baroda. If Baroda win, they will go through, leaving Tamil Nadu to fight it out with other teams. A Mumbai bonus-point win will edge Tamil Nadu out in that case.

If Baroda win, six points against Karnataka for Mumbai and bonus-point wins for Madhya Pradesh and Railways will see four teams tied on 23 points. In such a case, teams with more outright wins will finish higher. This would mean that Tamil Nadu and Mumbai will pip the other two teams. Tied at three wins apiece, the last qualification spot will then be decided on higher quotient [(runs scored/wickets lost) / (runs conceded/wickets taken)].

But if Baroda were to lose or gain just first-innings points, they will be waiting for the outcome of other matches. If Baroda lose, Mumbai, MP and Railways will all be in the mix to take the last spot from the group. Both MP and Railways have 16 points, and are playing home games against Bengal and Uttar Pradesh, who are at the bottom of the group. Victories will take both to 22, which will then mean that Mumbai and Baroda will also have to win their games.

If Baroda secure the first-innings lead then nothing less than an outright victory would be needed for Mumbai, MP and Railways.

Bengal have an improbable chance. They will need a bonus-point win, Baroda and Mumbai losses, and also require Railways to not win.

Group B

Teams	Mat	Won	Lost	Tied	Draw	Aban	Pts	Quotient	For	Against

Delhi 7 4 1 0 2 0 31 1.533 2693/81 2603/120

Vidarbha 7 2 0 0 5 0 24 1.675 3087/90 2293/112

Maharashtra 7 2 2 0 3 0 20 1.269 3509/104 3058/115

Punjab 7 2 2 0 3 0 19 0.956 3634/111 3286/96

Rajasthan 8 2 3 0 3 0 18 0.821 3203/121 3580/111

Gujarat 7 1 2 0 4 0 18 0.887 3142/98 3651/101

Haryana 7 2 3 0 2 0 17 0.934 2171/110 2429/115

Odisha 7 2 3 0 2 0 14 0.743 2345/116 2531/93

Saurashtra 7 1 2 0 4 0 10 0.634 3204/108 3557/76

Despite an embarrassing innings defeat at the hands of Vidarbha, Delhi are through. But that dominating victory has bettered the odds for Vidarbha, who travel to Pune to play Maharashtra. Both teams have a strong chance; Vidarbha have 24 points compared to Maharashtra's 20. A win for either will help them finish second in the group. A first-innings lead for Vidarbha will be enough.

If Maharashtra take first-innings points, they will have 23 and will then need to hope that Punjab, the fourth-placed team, do not beat Delhi in Patiala. But if Maharashtra lose, Punjab can qualify as the third team from the group even with three first-innings points, unless the Gujarat-Haryana match produces an outright winner. A Maharashtra win will make it mandatory for Punjab to defeat Delhi.

Also in the mix are Gujarat (18) and Haryana (17), who play each other in Ahmedabad. A win for either could put them in contention, depending on other results. A first-innings lead could be enough for Gujarat if Maharashtra and Punjab lose.

Like Bengal, Odisha have a tiny chance with a bonus-point win over Saurashtra, if Maharashtra and Punjab lose, and the Gujarat-Haryana match is drawn.

Group C

Teams	Mat	Won	Lost	Tied	Draw	Aban	Pts	Quotient	For	Against

Assam 7 5 1 0 1 0 35 1.315 2596/92 2532/118

Himachal Pradesh 7 2 0 0 5 0 27 1.876 3042/62 3008/115

Andhra 7 3 1 0 3 0 22 1.234 2531/85 2341/97

Kerala 7 1 1 0 5 0 19 0.917 2823/85 3584/99

Hyderabad (India) 7 1 1 0 5 0 17 1.060 3337/79 3745/94

Jharkhand 7 1 1 0 5 0 15 1.094 3287/102 2829/96

Tripura 8 0 3 0 5 0 9 0.635 3368/130 3386/83

Services 7 0 3 0 4 0 8 0.820 2851/102 2659/78

Goa 7 0 2 0 5 0 5 0.664 3237/111 2988/68

Assam, with 35 points, will make their second entry into the knockouts. The race for the other slot from this group will be between Himachal Pradesh and Andhra. Himachal have 27 points while Andhra have 22. But Andhra also have three wins compared to Himachal's two and that will be decisive in case both teams finish with the same number of points.

If Himachal get an outright win or even the first-innings lead in their away match against Hyderabad they will qualify. An Andhra win will only be effective if Himachal lose, or concede the first-innings lead.