Final lap of the qualification marathon

A look at teams' chances to make the Ranji Trophy knockouts ahead of the last round

04-Feb-2015

Tamil Nadu need only a point against Baroda to seal their progress  •  Sivaraman Kitta

The final round of the Ranji Trophy begins on February 6, and five quarter-final spots are up for grabs. Only Karnataka, Delhi and Assam are assured a knockout berth, having secured enough points to top their respective groups. Which could be the five teams that join them? Here is a look at the possible scenarios.

Group A

Teams	Mat	Won	Lost	Draw	Pts	Quotient	For	Against
Karnataka	7	4	0	3	32	1.714	3875/96	2943/125
Tamil Nadu	7	3	1	3	23	1.200	3249/102	2867/108
Baroda	7	1	1	5	18	1.168	3218/95	3481/120
Mumbai	7	2	2	3	17	0.955	3052/105	2952/97
Madhya Pradesh	7	1	1	5	16	1.034	3185/100	3172/103
Railways	7	0	1	6	16	0.974	2237/90	2577/101
Jammu & Kashmir	8	1	3	4	12	0.601	2912/125	3452/89
Bengal	7	0	1	6	12	0.921	3330/95	2854/75
Uttar Pradesh	7	1	3	3	9	0.661	2172/93	2932/83

Seven out of nine teams are still in the hunt. Sitting second behind Karnataka on 23 points, Tamil Nadu can make it with just one more point in their away match against Baroda. If Baroda win, they will go through, leaving Tamil Nadu to fight it out with other teams. A Mumbai bonus-point win will edge Tamil Nadu out in that case.

If Baroda win, six points against Karnataka for Mumbai and bonus-point wins for Madhya Pradesh and Railways will see four teams tied on 23 points. In such a case, teams with more outright wins will finish higher. This would mean that Tamil Nadu and Mumbai will pip the other two teams. Tied at three wins apiece, the last qualification spot will then be decided on higher quotient [(runs scored/wickets lost) / (runs conceded/wickets taken)].

But if Baroda were to lose or gain just first-innings points, they will be waiting for the outcome of other matches. If Baroda lose, Mumbai, MP and Railways will all be in the mix to take the last spot from the group. Both MP and Railways have 16 points, and are playing home games against Bengal and Uttar Pradesh, who are at the bottom of the group. Victories will take both to 22, which will then mean that Mumbai and Baroda will also have to win their games.

If Baroda secure the first-innings lead then nothing less than an outright victory would be needed for Mumbai, MP and Railways.

Bengal have an improbable chance. They will need a bonus-point win, Baroda and Mumbai losses, and also require Railways to not win.

Group B

Teams	Mat	Won	Lost	Draw	Pts	Quotient	For	Against
Delhi	7	4	1	2	31	1.533	2693/81	2603/120
Vidarbha	7	2	0	5	24	1.675	3087/90	2293/112
Maharashtra	7	2	2	3	20	1.269	3509/104	3058/115
Punjab	7	2	2	3	19	0.956	3634/111	3286/96
Rajasthan	8	2	3	3	18	0.821	3203/121	3580/111
Gujarat	7	1	2	4	18	0.887	3142/98	3651/101
Haryana	7	2	3	2	17	0.934	2171/110	2429/115
Odisha	7	2	3	2	14	0.743	2345/116	2531/93
Saurashtra	7	1	2	4	10	0.634	3204/108	3557/76

Despite an embarrassing innings defeat at the hands of Vidarbha, Delhi are through. But that dominating victory has bettered the odds for Vidarbha, who travel to Pune to play Maharashtra. Both teams have a strong chance; Vidarbha have 24 points compared to Maharashtra's 20. A win for either will help them finish second in the group. A first-innings lead for Vidarbha will be enough.

Race to escape relegation

There would be plenty at stake for five teams who are in danger of being relegated to Group C. The teams that finish at the bottom of Groups A and B are relegated to the lowest rung.
In Group A, Uttar Pradesh (9), Bengal (12) and Jammu & Kashmir (12) are in the danger zone. Since J & K are done with all their league games, Bengal will only have to avoid losing to Madhya Pradesh to retain their place in the top rung. For UP, the first-innings lead will be enough to pip J&K on the basis of quotient and avoid the ignominy of being relegated.
In Group B, the two bottom-placed teams - Odisha (14) and Saurashtra (10) - will be up against each other in Cuttack. Odisha only have to avoid a loss to save themselves. Saurashtra, on the other hand, will have to beat Odisha if they are to remain in the top flight.

If Maharashtra take first-innings points, they will have 23 and will then need to hope that Punjab, the fourth-placed team, do not beat Delhi in Patiala. But if Maharashtra lose, Punjab can qualify as the third team from the group even with three first-innings points, unless the Gujarat-Haryana match produces an outright winner. A Maharashtra win will make it mandatory for Punjab to defeat Delhi.

Also in the mix are Gujarat (18) and Haryana (17), who play each other in Ahmedabad. A win for either could put them in contention, depending on other results. A first-innings lead could be enough for Gujarat if Maharashtra and Punjab lose.

Like Bengal, Odisha have a tiny chance with a bonus-point win over Saurashtra, if Maharashtra and Punjab lose, and the Gujarat-Haryana match is drawn.

Group C

Teams	Mat	Won	Lost	Draw	Pts	Quotient	For	Against
Assam	7	5	1	1	35	1.315	2596/92	2532/118
Himachal Pradesh	7	2	0	5	27	1.876	3042/62	3008/115
Andhra	7	3	1	3	22	1.234	2531/85	2341/97
Kerala	7	1	1	5	19	0.917	2823/85	3584/99
Hyderabad (India)	7	1	1	5	17	1.060	3337/79	3745/94
Jharkhand	7	1	1	5	15	1.094	3287/102	2829/96
Tripura	8	0	3	5	9	0.635	3368/130	3386/83
Services	7	0	3	4	8	0.820	2851/102	2659/78
Goa	7	0	2	5	5	0.664	3237/111	2988/68

Assam, with 35 points, will make their second entry into the knockouts. The race for the other slot from this group will be between Himachal Pradesh and Andhra. Himachal have 27 points while Andhra have 22. But Andhra also have three wins compared to Himachal's two and that will be decisive in case both teams finish with the same number of points.

If Himachal get an outright win or even the first-innings lead in their away match against Hyderabad they will qualify. An Andhra win will only be effective if Himachal lose, or concede the first-innings lead.

India Indian Domestic Season Ranji Trophy

Nagraj Gollapudi is an assistant editor at ESPNcricinfo; Amol Karhadkar is a correspondent