The numbers game ahead of the finals
What the three teams need to do to qualify for the CB series finals after having each played six matches in the competition
S Rajesh
24-Feb-2012
With the last round of matches to go and only five points separating the three teams, things are heating up in the CB Series. In case teams are level on points, here's how the tie-breaker will rank the teams who are level on points: i) the team with the most wins; ii) the team with the most wins over the other team(s) who are equal on points and have the same number of wins; iii) the team with the highest number of bonus points; iv) the team with the highest net run rate.
Keeping this in mind, here's what the teams need to do to qualify:
Keeping this in mind, here's what the teams need to do to qualify:
Sri Lanka
They're currently sitting pretty on 15 points, but aren't yet through to the finals: if India win their last two games and if Australia beat Sri Lanka in the last match of the round-robin, then Sri Lanka will miss out on the finals. Sri Lanka could also miss out if they lose both their matches and concede a bonus point to India, and if Australia beat India. In such a case India and Sri Lanka will be level on 15, but India will scrape through on the basis of having more wins against Sri Lanka (two wins and only one defeat). However, given their current form and level of performance, Sri Lanka are best placed to make it through to the finals. In fact, they are the only team that can make it even if they lose both their remaining matches (provided Australia beat India and Sri Lanka don't concede a bonus point to India).
They're currently sitting pretty on 15 points, but aren't yet through to the finals: if India win their last two games and if Australia beat Sri Lanka in the last match of the round-robin, then Sri Lanka will miss out on the finals. Sri Lanka could also miss out if they lose both their matches and concede a bonus point to India, and if Australia beat India. In such a case India and Sri Lanka will be level on 15, but India will scrape through on the basis of having more wins against Sri Lanka (two wins and only one defeat). However, given their current form and level of performance, Sri Lanka are best placed to make it through to the finals. In fact, they are the only team that can make it even if they lose both their remaining matches (provided Australia beat India and Sri Lanka don't concede a bonus point to India).
Australia
Australia's two defeats to Sri Lanka have put them in a bit of a spot, though they need to win only one of their last two matches to be certain of a place in the finals. If they beat India, then Australia and Sri Lanka will contest the final, provided Sri Lanka don't concede a bonus point to India; if Australia beat Sri Lanka and lose to India, then the winner of the India-Sri Lanka clash will go through to the finals against Australia. However, if Australia lose both their matches, then they'll need Sri Lanka to beat India to go through. In such a case, both Australia and India will be level on 14 points (if Australia don't concede a bonus point to India), but Australia have two bonus points compared to none for India, which will tilt the scale in Australia's favour.
Australia's two defeats to Sri Lanka have put them in a bit of a spot, though they need to win only one of their last two matches to be certain of a place in the finals. If they beat India, then Australia and Sri Lanka will contest the final, provided Sri Lanka don't concede a bonus point to India; if Australia beat Sri Lanka and lose to India, then the winner of the India-Sri Lanka clash will go through to the finals against Australia. However, if Australia lose both their matches, then they'll need Sri Lanka to beat India to go through. In such a case, both Australia and India will be level on 14 points (if Australia don't concede a bonus point to India), but Australia have two bonus points compared to none for India, which will tilt the scale in Australia's favour.
If Australia concede a bonus point to India - a possibility that admittedly looks remote at the moment - and also lose to Sri Lanka, then they'll surely be out of the tournament, regardless of the result of the match between India and Sri Lanka. However, Australia have the advantage of playing the last match of the round-robin stage, so they'll know exactly what they need to do to qualify.
India
India have it all to do in the last round of matches. If they win both their matches they'll surely be through, but anything less, and they'll struggle: in case they lose one of their matches, India will require a bonus point in the other, and hope that other results go their way. For instance, if they beat Australia with a bonus point on Sunday and lose to Sri Lanka, they'll need Sri Lanka to beat Australia in the last match on Friday. If, on the other hand, they lose to Australia and beat Sri Lanka with a bonus point, they'll want Australia to beat Sri Lanka. In that scenario, both India and Sri Lanka will have 15 points with three wins each, but India will have a 2-1 lead in their head-to-head against Sri Lanka, which, according to the rules of this tournament, will take precedence over the net run rate.
India have it all to do in the last round of matches. If they win both their matches they'll surely be through, but anything less, and they'll struggle: in case they lose one of their matches, India will require a bonus point in the other, and hope that other results go their way. For instance, if they beat Australia with a bonus point on Sunday and lose to Sri Lanka, they'll need Sri Lanka to beat Australia in the last match on Friday. If, on the other hand, they lose to Australia and beat Sri Lanka with a bonus point, they'll want Australia to beat Sri Lanka. In that scenario, both India and Sri Lanka will have 15 points with three wins each, but India will have a 2-1 lead in their head-to-head against Sri Lanka, which, according to the rules of this tournament, will take precedence over the net run rate.
S Rajesh is stats editor of ESPNcricinfo. Follow him on Twitter