History favours 7/4 West Indies

England's chances in the Caribbean have been talked up of late, but bet365 still fancy West Indies chances on their home turf. England are outsiders at 9/4 and a West Indies win is 7/4. The draw, surprisingly, is the favourite at 5/4. West Indies have an intimidating record at Sabina Park - they have only lost 5 of the 38 games at the ground. In more recent times, West Indies have won every Test at the ground since the infamous abandoned match on England's 1997-98 tour, and so should go into the game with some confidence.

As Michael Vaughan pointed out, none of England's players were born last time England recorded a series victory in the Caribbean and the only link to England's victorious sixties team is, in fact, their resident Welshman Simon Jones. His father. Jeff Jones, played in England's single victory in 1968.

Simon Jones himself is favourite with bet365 to be England's top wicket-taker in the first innings. Odds of 11/4 underline how important the Glamorgan man is to the England cause. James Anderson and Matthew Hoggard seem to be contesting the final place in the bowling line-up, and both are 7/2 in this market. Ashley Giles should be the solitary spinner on show, and odds of 11/2 look extremely attractive for punters who feel he will continue his good form from earlier in the winter.

The Man of the Match market traditionally offers better odds for those punters who expect a major contribution from a batsman to swing the game. Brian Lara, 15/8 in the Top West Indies batsman market, is 9/2 to be Man of the Match, and could be worth some attention at this price - he averages 64.91 at the ground, and 65.26 against England. For England supporters, there is very little to go on - only Hussain, Butcher and Thorpe have played in the Caribbean before. Andrew Flintoff's big-hitting antics should go down well with the West Indian crowds - he is a tempting 9/1 in the Man of the Match market.

bet365 are also offering player performance bets, and odds on highest first innings opening partnership and first innings lead.

The Cricinfo tipster
Banker - Match result: West Indies 7/2
Value bet - Man of the Match: Brian Lara 9/2
Best outside bet - Andy Flintoff: Man of the Match 9/1