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Group 2 scenarios - Pakistan hope that one of India or South Africa stumble on Sunday

India will go through even with a no-result, but South Africa don't have that luxury

S Rajesh
S Rajesh
Both India and Pakistan need to win, although for the latter side even that may not be enough  •  Getty Images/ICC

Both India and Pakistan need to win, although for the latter side even that may not be enough  •  Getty Images/ICC

Pakistan's 33-run win against South Africa means they keep their semi-final hopes alive, while South Africa aren't quite there yet. With the points table very tight, here is a look at what each of these teams need to do to qualify for the semi-finals.
Played: 4, Points: 4, NRR: 1.117, Rem match: vs Ban (Adelaide)
Despite the convincing win against South Africa, Pakistan will still need help from outside to qualify. They need to beat Bangladesh, of course, but that won't be enough if India and South Africa win their matches on Sunday. To qualify, Pakistan will need at least one of these two to happen along with their victory:
  • South Africa either lose or have their game against Netherlands abandoned. In that case, even though they could finish on a maximum of six points, they will be below Pakistan as they will have two wins to Pakistan's three. Number of wins is the first tie-breaker between teams, then net run rate.
  • India lose to Zimbabwe. In that case, Pakistan's superior net run rate over India will see them through.
  • South Africa
    Played: 4, Points: 5, NRR: 1.441, Rem match: vs Neth (Adelaide)
    South Africa need to beat Netherlands to qualify. As explained above, even if that game is washed out and they end up on six points, they will finish below the winner of the Pakistan-Bangladesh game, as the winner there will have more wins. The forecast looks good for Adelaide on Sunday, though, so South Africa will most likely get the opportunity to play a full game.
    Played: 4, Points: 6, NRR: 0.730, Rem match: vs Zim (Melbourne)
    Pakistan's NRR is already better than India's, so any victory for Pakistan, and any defeat for India, will maintain this NRR hierarchy. That means India need at least one more point on Sunday to ensure qualification. If India lose, there are two ways they can still qualify: one, if South Africa lose to Netherlands, or two, if Bangladesh beat Pakistan and still finish below India on NRR.
    Since India play last on Sunday, though, they will know exactly what is required to finish in the top two.
    Played: 4, Points: 4, NRR: -1.276, Rem match: vs Pak (Adelaide)
    Given Bangladesh's terrible NRR, it is almost impossible that they will move past India on the points table: for that to happen, the sum of the margins of the results of those two games - Bangladesh beating Pakistan and Zimbabwe beating India - will have to exceed 150 runs. Thus, Bangladesh's only chance is to beat Pakistan and then hope that South Africa get no more than one point against Netherlands.
    Played: 4, Points: 3, NRR: -0.313, Rem matches: vs Ind (Melbourne)
    Zimbabwe can get to five points, which means theoretically they can be tied on points with Pakistan, Bangladesh (if their game is washed out) and South Africa (if they lose their last game), but their NRR is too low to make them a serious contender. Even if they beat India by 50 runs, they will need South Africa to lose to Netherlands by a similar margin, to overhaul South Africa's NRR.

    S Rajesh is stats editor of ESPNcricinfo. @rajeshstats