The rise of the US, the death of Tests
Test cricket will die, Twenty20 will kill it; Test cricket will thrive, Twenty20 will peter out: our writers and columnists have all sorts of predictions for the 2010s
10-Jan-2010
Will the crowds still turn out in packs for Twenty20, 10 years from now? • Associated Press
Peter English Australasia editor, Cricinfo
Tired of meaningless fixtures, bored by the constant cheque presentations, and worn down by the dominance of corruption and gambling, spectators will have deserted Twenty20 by 2019. The proliferation of domestic tournaments at the beginning of the decade will hold their spark for a couple of years before the followers lose interest as the players switch allegiances as quickly as team uniforms change. Due to the power of the corporate backers, the results will be decided in the boardrooms, despite the pretence that those on the field are actually involved in determining who wins. Test cricket will have regained its status as the unsullied, sparkling form of the game, although it will be played under lights, over four days and in a minimum of three-game contests. Ireland and the Netherlands will be above Zimbabwe and West Indies on the rankings, with Bangladesh regularly challenging the top teams.
Tired of meaningless fixtures, bored by the constant cheque presentations, and worn down by the dominance of corruption and gambling, spectators will have deserted Twenty20 by 2019. The proliferation of domestic tournaments at the beginning of the decade will hold their spark for a couple of years before the followers lose interest as the players switch allegiances as quickly as team uniforms change. Due to the power of the corporate backers, the results will be decided in the boardrooms, despite the pretence that those on the field are actually involved in determining who wins. Test cricket will have regained its status as the unsullied, sparkling form of the game, although it will be played under lights, over four days and in a minimum of three-game contests. Ireland and the Netherlands will be above Zimbabwe and West Indies on the rankings, with Bangladesh regularly challenging the top teams.
S Rajesh stats editor, Cricinfo
The 2010s will see the resurgence of West Indies and of one-day cricket. Dwayne Bravo will go on to lead the team with distinction, while a couple of fast bowlers will give the attack the bite it has been lacking for several years. They'll be a strong contender for the 2015 World Cup, and will move up to be among the top four teams in both forms of the game. The one-day game will be revived by a rule change, which will give the bowlers a greater say - two of them will be allowed a maximum of 12 overs per innings. Interest in the Twenty20 format will stay for a couple of years, before gradually tapering off. The IPL will be around, though interest in it will dwindle, but the Champions League will die away.
The 2010s will see the resurgence of West Indies and of one-day cricket. Dwayne Bravo will go on to lead the team with distinction, while a couple of fast bowlers will give the attack the bite it has been lacking for several years. They'll be a strong contender for the 2015 World Cup, and will move up to be among the top four teams in both forms of the game. The one-day game will be revived by a rule change, which will give the bowlers a greater say - two of them will be allowed a maximum of 12 overs per innings. Interest in the Twenty20 format will stay for a couple of years, before gradually tapering off. The IPL will be around, though interest in it will dwindle, but the Champions League will die away.
Martin Williamson executive editor
The last decade has seen some major changes in the game, but on the field few have been as important as the increasing use of technology. Many of those who moan that it robs cricket of human error (and just why is that good?) are the ones who berate umpires when they make howlers. Most other sports, with the stubborn exception of football, are embracing technical advances, and cricket should be leading the way. The game's administrators keep dipping their toes in the water without taking the plunge. So what if officials became little more than number counters and coat-hangers? Surely the most important thing is that decisions are right? There's a suspicion that the ICC doesn't want too much technology as it might mean games are over quicker, but you have to hope common sense wins through. And please, can changes be thought through and explained to the public and officials? Too often they are rushed into place, with the end result the systems are confusing and discredited.
The last decade has seen some major changes in the game, but on the field few have been as important as the increasing use of technology. Many of those who moan that it robs cricket of human error (and just why is that good?) are the ones who berate umpires when they make howlers. Most other sports, with the stubborn exception of football, are embracing technical advances, and cricket should be leading the way. The game's administrators keep dipping their toes in the water without taking the plunge. So what if officials became little more than number counters and coat-hangers? Surely the most important thing is that decisions are right? There's a suspicion that the ICC doesn't want too much technology as it might mean games are over quicker, but you have to hope common sense wins through. And please, can changes be thought through and explained to the public and officials? Too often they are rushed into place, with the end result the systems are confusing and discredited.
Dileep Premachandran associate editor
One way or the other, the Champions League Twenty20 will shape the game's future. If it succeeds as Lalit Modi hopes, the Champions League will eventually emulate its footballing counterpart, and become the competition every player craves to be part of year after year. If the global audience doesn't tune in - and remember that there are no home-and-away fixtures as in the UEFA version - the losses will be catastrophic. Twenty20 overkill could in some ways be the salvation of Test cricket, especially if we keep getting five-day games of the quality of Dunedin, Perth and Centurion last year.
One way or the other, the Champions League Twenty20 will shape the game's future. If it succeeds as Lalit Modi hopes, the Champions League will eventually emulate its footballing counterpart, and become the competition every player craves to be part of year after year. If the global audience doesn't tune in - and remember that there are no home-and-away fixtures as in the UEFA version - the losses will be catastrophic. Twenty20 overkill could in some ways be the salvation of Test cricket, especially if we keep getting five-day games of the quality of Dunedin, Perth and Centurion last year.
Ian Chappell commentator and columnist
If the officials aren't extremely vigilant, the fixers will dampen the public's enthusiasm for Twenty20.
If the officials aren't extremely vigilant, the fixers will dampen the public's enthusiasm for Twenty20.
Gideon Haigh Australian cricket historian and writer
Ascendancy will fluctuate, because cricket has become too diverse a game to dominate. Overall, however, I suspect India will grow in on-field authority to match their off-field influence. God, as Napoleon said, is on the side of the big batallions.
Ascendancy will fluctuate, because cricket has become too diverse a game to dominate. Overall, however, I suspect India will grow in on-field authority to match their off-field influence. God, as Napoleon said, is on the side of the big batallions.
Sambit Bal editor, Cricinfo
I cringe at the thought, but sometime during the next decade Tests will start getting crunched. Either they will reduce the number of hours per day, or more likely one whole day will be lopped off. Neither will be a bad thing if they can put a bit more life into the pitches. Batsmen will still score quickly, but if the bowlers are in the game, the right results will follow.
I cringe at the thought, but sometime during the next decade Tests will start getting crunched. Either they will reduce the number of hours per day, or more likely one whole day will be lopped off. Neither will be a bad thing if they can put a bit more life into the pitches. Batsmen will still score quickly, but if the bowlers are in the game, the right results will follow.
Christian Ryan former editor, Wisden Australia
Dimwitted administrators, with little feel for the game's charms, will do nothing about the too-powerful bats, with the result that twos and threes are seldom sighted, while fours and sixes become so routine that spectators cease to clap them.
Dimwitted administrators, with little feel for the game's charms, will do nothing about the too-powerful bats, with the result that twos and threes are seldom sighted, while fours and sixes become so routine that spectators cease to clap them.
Andrew Miller UK editor, Cricinfo
For most of the game's traditional supporters, the fate of Test cricket is the topic that will dominate all agendas. The grand old format has taken a battering in recent months, overwhelmed on the one hand by the popularity of Twenty20s and undermined on the other by deathly flat pitches and dwindling crowds. In the short term, Test cricket will soldier on; there are too many greats still in play - Tendulkar, Dravid and Ponting among them - for interest to fizzle out overnight. But as and when they retire, with a raft of records that will never be matched, what on earth will come in their stead? A clue as to the future will be on display next summer, when Pakistan and Australia play their series in the one country where five-day cricket remains a guaranteed crowd-puller. England, the country that gave birth to cricket, could well find itself nursing the old game through its dotage. As for 50-over cricket, the hideous schedule for the 2011 World Cup may well seal its fate. By 2020, Twenty20s will stand alone.
For most of the game's traditional supporters, the fate of Test cricket is the topic that will dominate all agendas. The grand old format has taken a battering in recent months, overwhelmed on the one hand by the popularity of Twenty20s and undermined on the other by deathly flat pitches and dwindling crowds. In the short term, Test cricket will soldier on; there are too many greats still in play - Tendulkar, Dravid and Ponting among them - for interest to fizzle out overnight. But as and when they retire, with a raft of records that will never be matched, what on earth will come in their stead? A clue as to the future will be on display next summer, when Pakistan and Australia play their series in the one country where five-day cricket remains a guaranteed crowd-puller. England, the country that gave birth to cricket, could well find itself nursing the old game through its dotage. As for 50-over cricket, the hideous schedule for the 2011 World Cup may well seal its fate. By 2020, Twenty20s will stand alone.
Jayaditya Gupta executive editor, Cricinfo
Cricket will rise in new territories, especially the USA, aided by technology. Wherever two dozen South Asians assemble - and there is barely a corner of the globe where they don't - cricket will be a lucrative sporting venture, sponsored by nanotechnology companies in Hyderabad and broadcast on high-definition palmtop screens. The USA will have its own version(s) of the IPL and the money on offer will break whatever hold the current powers have on individual players. In this great democratising process, monolithic controlling entities will retain their relevance only in organising a four-nation Test championship.
Cricket will rise in new territories, especially the USA, aided by technology. Wherever two dozen South Asians assemble - and there is barely a corner of the globe where they don't - cricket will be a lucrative sporting venture, sponsored by nanotechnology companies in Hyderabad and broadcast on high-definition palmtop screens. The USA will have its own version(s) of the IPL and the money on offer will break whatever hold the current powers have on individual players. In this great democratising process, monolithic controlling entities will retain their relevance only in organising a four-nation Test championship.
Harsha Bhogle Commentator and writer
There will be windows for Test cricket, and Tests will increasingly only be played between the better teams. ODIs and Twenty20 internationals will be home-away games. Only the 50-over World Cup will retain icon status. The IPL will become bigger than it is.
There will be windows for Test cricket, and Tests will increasingly only be played between the better teams. ODIs and Twenty20 internationals will be home-away games. Only the 50-over World Cup will retain icon status. The IPL will become bigger than it is.
Telford Vice writer
Brace yourselves, cricket lovers, for more Twenty20 matches than you can throw your TV remote at. And for the youngest, brashest form of the game to breathe life into its more venerable siblings. Far from killing one-day and Test cricket, Twenty20 will breed new audiences. Now if only we could convince the bigger brothers to spruce themselves up so that they stay relevant enough to keep those audiences entertained.
Brace yourselves, cricket lovers, for more Twenty20 matches than you can throw your TV remote at. And for the youngest, brashest form of the game to breathe life into its more venerable siblings. Far from killing one-day and Test cricket, Twenty20 will breed new audiences. Now if only we could convince the bigger brothers to spruce themselves up so that they stay relevant enough to keep those audiences entertained.