Scenario 1: India beat Sri LankaIndia will cement their spot in the final and Bangladesh will be out of contention, and the winners of the Pakistan vs Sri Lanka game on Thursday will face India in Sunday's final. In case of a washout on Thursday, the team with the better net run-rate between Pakistan and Sri Lanka will make the final (Sri Lanka are better placed at this stage).
Scenario 2: Sri Lanka beat IndiaSri Lanka will still not be certain of a place in the final, as they could end up in a three-way tie with Pakistan and India on four points. India are better placed than the other two to qualify in this scenario because of their NRR, boosted by the massive 228-run win over Pakistan.
Scenario 3: Rain beats India and Sri LankaIf India and Sri Lanka share points, it would put Bangladesh out of the race. However, it will be a good result for Pakistan because of their poor NRR. They will qualify for the final if they beat Sri Lanka on Thursday but crash out if they lose. India will join Pakistan in the final even if they lose to Bangladesh - because of a superior NRR - and can even afford to lose by more than 200 runs.
Sampath Bandarupalli is a statistician at ESPNcricinfo