Australia hold a significant advantage in terms of historical stats between the two teams, but past record will count for little when the series gets underway in Johannesburg on Thursday. South Africa have the momentum in their favour after winning their first Test series in Australia, and now they have the opportunity to repeat that with their first home series victory against Australia since their readmission into international cricket.
In the past, Australia have handled the conditions in South Africa pretty well - in
four series since 1992, they've won each of the last three, most recently by a comprehensive 3-0 margin in 2006. The current Australian side, though, is almost unrecognisable from the team which toured then: only three members - Ricky Ponting, Michael Clarke and Michael Hussey - are common to both.
South Africa have won more Tests than they've lost at the Wanderers since their comeback, but against Australia, it's been a different story, with three defeats in
four Tests, including two by an innings. In fact, the ground isn't one of the favourite home venues for South Africa - they've had
far more success in Centurion and Cape Town.
Australia's dominance in the last 15 years in South Africa is obvious from the table below: they average nine runs more per wicket than the home team, and score their runs at a quicker rate too. South Africa's biggest problem has been the inability of their batsmen to convert starts into hundreds - 33 times they've gone past 50, but only on four of those occasions did the batsmen go on to centuries, a poor conversion rate of 12%. For Australia, on the other hand, the corresponding conversion rate is 33%.
Among Australia's current squad, only two have played a Test in South Africa before, and both Ponting and Hussey have done superbly in the past. Ponting has three hundreds in six Tests, and while Hussey hasn't scored a hundred, he has been very consistent.
Jacques Kallis will, sometime during the series, get the 12 runs he needs to join the 10,000-run club, but he'll want much more than that against an opposition he has struggled against, especially at home: in
17 innings he has managed one century, and a mediocre average of 28.75. His first home series against them was an absolute shocker - 49 runs in five innings - but in his last two series he has done better, and his only hundred against them came in Durban in 2006. Against an Australian attack that is nothing like it used to be, though, Kallis has an excellent opportunity to improve that poor record.
In fact, most of the current South African batsmen who have played Australia at home have poor records against them: Graeme Smith and AB de Villiers average less than 25, with only two half-centuries between them in 14 innings. Neil McKenzie is the only one with a respectable average.
South Africa's batsmen have a mixed record at the Wanderers. Hashim Amla, who hasn't yet played a Test against Australia at home, averages almost 58 while Smith averages 50, but for some of the others it has been a struggle. McKenzie has a highest of 27 not out in
five innings, while de Villiers has fared even worse, with an average of 11.22, and a highest of 33 in
nine innings. In his other eight innings, he hasn't even reached 20.
Kallis has
reasonable stats here - though his average is well below his career numbers - but restrict it to his performance against Australia at the Wanderers, and the stats don't look as pretty. In
six innings, he has a highest of 39 and an average of 20. That's another number he'll want to correct over the next five days. Seventy-eight runs in the match will also make him the first player to score 1000 Test runs at the ground.
South Africa's batsmen haven't always enjoyed batting here, but their two strike bowlers have had plenty of success. Makhaya Ntini is two short of 50 wickets at this venue, while Steyn averages less than 20 for his 19 wickets.
Head-to-head stats
Ponting is easily the most experienced of Australia's batsmen, and he also has excellent records against South Africa's top two bowlers. He averages 58.60 against Ntini, while Steyn has leaked 59 at almost a run a ball, without dismissing him once. Steyn will fancy his chances much more against Hussey, who has fallen to him twice for 20 runs.
Mitchell Johnson is the one bowler among the current lot who has bowled a fair amount to the current South African batsmen, and he has had a pretty good time against most of them. de Villiers and Amla have handled him well, but McKenzie JP Duminy, and Kallis have struggled against him. Kallis, especially, has had a tough time, scoring 30 from 103 runs and being dismissed thrice.