Battle of the new-ball attacks

In home Test series against New Zealand, England's dominance has been emphatic - out of 16 series, they've won 13, lost just two, and drawn one. They've won seven of their last eight home Tests against New Zealand. Despite that one-sided history, New Zealand will go into the two-Test series as slight favourites, on paper at least: they're currently ranked No. 3 in the ICC Test rankings, two places above England, and have also had a much better recent run.

Since November 2013, England have a 4-8 record in Tests - the defeats include a 5-0 whitewash in Australia, a home series loss against Sri Lanka, and a drawn series in the West Indies. In the same period, New Zealand have an 8-2 record - their win-loss ratio is the best among all teams in these 18 months: they've beaten West Indies home and away, won home series against India and Sri Lanka, and drawn in the UAE against Pakistan.

Those recent numbers look overwhelmingly in favour of New Zealand, but a closer look reveals that most of England's defeats have come overseas - they are 3-2 at home during this period - while New Zealand have mostly won at home - they are 3-2 in away Tests. Given that England have the advantage of home conditions - and New Zealand haven't had the ideal preparation for a Test series - there may not be that much to choose between the two teams.

The batting and bowling averages for the two teams indicate that New Zealand's batsmen have made the biggest difference to the team during this period. They've averaged more than 40 runs per wicket, and put up enough runs on the board for the bowlers to then take over. In 13 Tests, New Zealand's batsmen have scored 20 centuries, compared to 14 hundreds in 15 Tests by England's batsmen. Three of New Zealand's batsmen - Brendon McCullum, Ross Taylor and Kane Williamson - have contributed 14 of those 20 centuries, and they've all averaged more than 58 in these 18 months. Their form will be key for New Zealand again, even though others like BJ Watling and Tom Latham have also made crucial contributions.

England's batting stars have been Joe Root and Gary Ballance - between them, they've made eight of the team's 14 hundreds, and average more than 60. However, the lack of big runs for Alastair Cook and Ian Bell has hurt the team badly: both have averaged less than 36. Cook, though, showed some return to form in the West Indies with a century and two fifties in six innings, which only augurs well for the summer ahead.

England batsmen in Tests since Nov 2013

Player	Mat	Runs	Ave	100s	50s
Joe Root	14	1327	69.84	4	6
Gary Ballance	11	1060	62.35	4	5
Jos Buttler	6	310	62.00	0	3
Alastair Cook	15	890	35.60	1	8
Ian Bell	15	824	32.96	2	5
Moeen Ali	9	352	29.33	1	1
Ben Stokes	9	455	28.43	1	1

New Zealand batsmen in Tests since Nov 2013

Player	Mat	Runs	Ave	100	50
Kane Williamson	12	1399	73.63	5	5
Brendon McCullum	13	1357	61.68	5	0
Ross Taylor	12	992	58.35	4	2
Jimmy Neesham	8	606	43.28	2	3
BJ Watling	13	748	41.55	2	3
Tom Latham	9	684	40.23	2	3
Mark Craig	8	318	39.75	0	2
Corey Anderson	8	332	27.66	0	2
Hamish Rutherford	9	348	21.75	0	1

The bowling numbers for the two teams are much closer over the last 18 months and, in familiar home conditions, England could well have an edge there. James Anderson has averaged less than 25 during this period, and his average in home Tests since 2010 is 23.60: he has 146 wickets in 31 games during this period. Stuart Broad's recent form is impressive too, but New Zealand have their own trump cards in Trent Boult and Tim Southee, who both average less than 25 in the last 18 months. The battle between these two pairs of new-ball bowlers could well be the key contest in the series

England bowlers in Tests since Nov 2013

Player	Mat	Wickets	Average	SR
James Anderson	15	68	24.91	53.2
Stuart Broad	15	57	27.66	57.1
Moeen Ali	9	28	29.50	50.5
Ben Stokes	9	25	39.20	64.4
Chris Jordan	8	21	35.80	72.8

New Zealand bowlers in Tests since Nov 2013

Player	Mat	Wickets	Average	SR
TA Boult	13	58	24.31	52.2
TG Southee	13	53	24.77	54.7
MD Craig	8	31	39.58	62.5
N Wagner	7	27	32.74	55.2

Anderson and Broad also have pretty good records against New Zealand's top three batsmen. Broad, especially, has had plenty of success against Taylor and McCullum, who've both handled Anderson a lot better.

On the other hand, England's three top batsmen have had mixed success against Boult and Southee. Cook has struggled against Boult, but has faced 264 balls from Southee without being dismissed. Bell has faced 154 deliveries from Boult without being dismissed, but has fallen twice to Southee, while Root has a pretty ordinary record against both.

Anderson and Broad v New Zealand's big three

Bowler	Batsman	Runs	Dismissals	Average
Stuart Broad	Ross Taylor	125	6	20.83
Stuart Broad	Brendon McCullum	182	6	30.33
Stuart Broad	Kane Williamson	69	2	34.50
James Anderson	Ross Taylor	187	4	46.75
James Anderson	Kane Williamson	75	3	25.00
James Anderson	Brendon McCullum	136	3	45.33

Boult and Southee v England's top three batsmen

Bowler	Batsman	Runs	Dismissals	Average
Trent Boult	Alastair Cook	62	4	15.50
Trent Boult	Joe Root	51	3	17.00
Trent Boult	Ian Bell	42	0	_
Tim Southee	Joe Root	67	3	22.33
Tim Southee	Ian Bell	74	2	37.00
Tim Southee	Alastair Cook	138	0	_

England have lost two of their last five Lord's Tests - against South Africa and India - but before that they had a run of 13 Tests there without a defeat, winning six and drawing seven. Against New Zealand, they've only lost one out of 16 Lord's Tests, winning seven and drawing eight. Most of the current England players have superb records here: Root averages 84, with two hundreds in four Tests, while Balance has scored a century in each of his two Tests there and averages 88. Bell has been around a lot longer - he played his first Lord's Test ten years ago - but he has an excellent record too, averaging 53 over 16 matches. Cook is the one player with a slightly below-par record: he averages of 39.93 from 18 Tests, thanks to an average of 16 from his last ten innings. Among the bowlers, both Anderson and Broad have tremendous records at Lord's, with Anderson averaging 25.30 (73 wickets in 16 Tests), and Broad 29.50 (55 wickets in 13 Tests).

New Zealand may be ahead on recent form but, given that England are playing at home and some of New Zealand's key players are coming in directly from the IPL, England should fancy their chances over the next couple of weeks.