Who will prosper on series spreads?

The first Test in Nagpur produced some great individual displays from both sides and the second in Mohali promises more of the same. Hopefully the rain will hold off, and with a pitch that seems suited to seamers there are likely to be changes to both sides.

Series runs
One of Sporting Index's most popular series markets is based on a prediction of how many runs a batsman will get over this three Test series. For example, here are some of the spreads currently offered:

Batsman: (current toal in brackets)
Strauss (74) 215 to 225
Pietersen (102) 255 to 265
Flintoff (43) 162 to 172
Sehwag (2) 155 to 165
Dravid (111) 275 to 285
Tendulkar (44) 205 to 215

To bet on these markets, you either "bet high" at the higher price if you think he'll score a lot of runs over the series, or "bet low" if you think that player is out of form and so won't score many. How much you win (or lose) depends on how right (or wrong) you are!

For example, let's take Kevin Pietersen. He's already scored 102 runs after one match (15 plus 87). Looking ahead to the end of this Test series, you have a choice to make:

a) Will Pietersen accumulate more than a total of 265 runs, OR b) Will Pietersen manage less than a total of 255 runs?

Let's say that you think Big Kev will not be troubled by India's finest and will rack up some big scores in the next matches. You would therefore "bet high" at 265 runs, let's say with a stake of £2 per run.

If you're right and Pietersen has a useful series, managing a century in the first innings, plus some more modest scores in the second innings and third Test eg 100 + 20 + 50 + 35 = 205 runs, this brings his series runs total to 205 + 102 = 307. You were betting on him to get more than 265, at £2 per run. You would therefore win (307 - 265) x £2 = 42 x £2 = £84.

However, it could go the other way. Let's say he gives his wicket away cheaply on a couple of occasions and his next four innings scores are 10 + 40 + 80 + 5 = 135. His series runs would then total just 135 + 102 = 237.

Because you "bet high" at 265 runs, there is a shortfall of 28 runs (265 minus 237). At a stake of £2 per run, this would result in a loss of (265 - 237) x £2 = 28 x £2 = £56.