Wind the key to scoring spreads at St Andrews

Sporting Index have released so many markets on this week's Open Championship at St Andrews that you would probably need a computer just to sort through them all before the event gets under way on Thursday. The usual finishing positions and top nationality markets are well covered, with Sporting predicting that Tiger Woods will finish between 8th and 11th. But the specials, as always with Sporting Index, are worth closer inspection.

The first one is the total number of players to finish under par this week, a market currently set at 41-44. On the face of it, this is awfully high, and the market has already seen plenty of action since it was first posted, rising as high as 43-46 at one stage before settling back down at 41.

The key factor here is the weather. In 2000, when the sun shone on all four days and the winds were light, St Andrews yielded plenty of birdies and the number of players under par was 51. In 1995, however, when the wind blew a little more like is the custom in Scotland, the scores were higher and just 19 men broke par. The forecast is never fully reliable in this part of the world, but though conditions don't look like they'll be too bad, a sell at 41 looks far less risky than a buy at 44. If there's just one day when the wind really picks up, then I'd be surprised if it's more than 10-15.

Likewise, the winning score is linked to the weather, with Sporting saying it'll be 272-273, or -15 to -16, in layman's terms. Again, if the wind blows, it'll be nowhere near that, but it'll be important to pay close attention to the forecasts.

Sporting offer several spreads on some of the individual holes, with the first hole perhaps the most interesting of them. With 10 points for an eagle and one for a birdie, the market is 92-100. Now, though it's a par four, and though the second shot is over the famous "Burn", it's a relatively easy hole which only becomes more troublesome when the pin is placed closed to the water. The hole will be played at least 450 times over the course of the four days, and 100 looks on the low side to me, particularly as there may well be an eagle along the way.

And one other market of interest. The British Isles hotshots is set at 26-30, with 25 points awarded to any of the four nominated players who make the top 10, and a 25-point bonus should one of them win it. Sporting have nominated Darren Clarke, Lee Westwood, Luke Donald and Colin Montgomerie, three of whom I would fancy have a great chance of being in the top 10. Montgomerie is the only exception but even he could go well if the wind stays away.