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August 12, 2014

Is Pakistan's slow approach now holding them back?

Ahmer Naqvi
With a more settled middle order, Pakistan can now afford to score quicker to dominate games  © AFP
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There comes a time when every pioneer is forced to confront the very changes they unleashed turning against them. Historians repeat tales of wise rulers who made much-needed reforms only to see those undermine their own power.

On Sunday evening, after Sri Lanka narrowly beat the rain gods, (they had defeated Pakistan much earlier) the post-mortem of the defeat focused on Pakistan's negative approach in the third innings. While I was among those bemoaning the drip-torture run rate, it is slightly churlish to blame this tactic. After all, batting for time rather than runs, and bowling tight and forcing mistakes, has always been the approach under Misbah-ul-Haq.

When he began, Misbah's strategy was mostly a result of necessity rather than design. The task ahead of him was the toughest faced by a Pakistan captain since Abdul Hafeez Kardar. Misbah's team was already in international exile and had just been rocked by the game's biggest scandal, losing its two best bowlers. His batsmen were young and callow, while his bowling spearhead was an ageing spinner. To take the team from there to the world's No. 3-ranked side in Tests is a remarkable achievement. Most importantly, it came in the face of widespread derision from a country obsessed with playing a certain attacking style. Misbah's defensive approach helped Pakistan rebuild and punch above their weight despite the chaos all around them.

In that context, is it really fair to blame an approach that has brought so much success and stability? In order to answer that question, I used my caveman-level statistics skills to take a closer look at the one metric everyone gets riled about - Pakistan's run rate under Misbah.

I looked at the scoring rate for both Pakistan and their opposition in Tests under Misbah, and divided them by first- and second-innings scores v third- and fourth-innings scores. In the first two innings of the match, Misbah's side scored at 2.91 runs per over and conceded 2.97. In the second turn (i.e. third or fourth innings) the team scored at 2.78 and conceded 2.91. In simple terms, the team was likely to bat a touch slower in the second innings and bowl more economically.

Breaking these down by outcome, the scoring rate for Pakistan increased in matches won from an average of 2.94 runs per over in the first dig to 3.1 in the second. In losses, the scoring rate dropped from an average of 2.7 in the first dig to 2.56 in the second. In drawn matches, Pakistan's run rate dropped from 2.96 in the first turn to 2.71 in the second - a figure closer to the one for losses than that for wins. In terms of bowling, Pakistan under Misbah, on average, decreased the opposition's run rate by 0.15 runs per over in wins, and watched it improve by 0.19 in losses. In draws, though, the average run rate for the opposition in the first or second innings is 3.1, which is the same rate conceded in the third or fourth innings.

One point of interest that emerges here is Pakistan's behaviour in draws. They start batting at a rate similar to that in wins, but their run rate in their second turn slows down to a level closer to that in losses. This is an important distinction, since Pakistan's ability to draw matches has seen a remarkable turnaround over the past two years.

In Misbah's earlier years, the batting side was so inexperienced that survival was often the best that could be hoped for. Misbah made his team bat for time rather than runs and they blunted South Africa in a drawn series where they batted at 2.93 and 2.28 runs per over in their final innings of the two matches. After a series win against Sri Lanka using a similar style, this approach towards batting reached its apogee in 2012, when they twice defeated England with run rates of 2.15 and 2.39 in their last innings. At the end of the series Misbah's record as captain stood at nine wins, five draws and just one defeat.

However, in the last two years, Misbah's record reads three wins, three draws, and seven defeats. Crucially, six of these defeats have come in matches where Pakistan scored at under three runs per over in their final innings, while their only success batting at this rate came against Zimbabwe. In contrast, batting at over three runs per over in the final innings during this time brought two wins, two draws and a defeat. While one of those wins was a facile chase against South Africa, the other was a remarkable chase of a 300-plus target at over five runs per over.

As noted above, Pakistan are no longer drawing matches, and their approach in their final innings is yielding different results. The only significant win in the past two years has come when they batted aggressively, while the only draw has also come when scoring at over three an over. In contrast, scoring at under three an over in their final innings has become disastrous for them. This last change is important, because previously batting cautiously and negatively in the final innings was ensuring draws and even wins.

Misbah should try using Junaid Khan and Saeed Ajmal in a more attacking manner  © AFP
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So what has caused this change? Perhaps the biggest reason is the stability. The opening slots are still a carousel, but the next four batsmen and the bowling spearheads are largely settled. The astonishing chase in Sharjah also confirmed that the team had the ability to score at a faster rate than they currently do. And most importantly, the disaster in Galle reiterated that the line-up no longer has the ability to bat at deliberately slow rates.

After the match, Misbah said: "I think there was no strategy [to bat negatively]. Our plan was to play normal cricket." The quote suggests that the batsmen slipped into their regular scoring rate under Misbah, which in recent times has only been challenged when chasing a series-tying win. What was once a necessity has now become a burden, and batting slowly in their final innings in a match is getting Pakistan beaten.

But unlike before, they are now good enough to score faster, and have been achieving results when they have batted at a more aggressive rate. Moreover, Waqar Younis' ascension to coach has also seen a more attacking, and therefore more expensive, approach to bowling, specifically with the attack now containing a much-improved Junaid Khan and a Saeed Ajmal who knows he's one of the world's best. But using them more aggressively will contrast with Misbah's preferred style of using a slow-spin strangle.

Consequently, the stability and simplicity that Misbah brought to the side might now be holding it back. He would do well to realise that just like when he started, he again faces a situation where the only choices are to change or perish.

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Ahmer Naqvi is a journalist, writer and teacher. He writes on cricket for various publications, and co-hosts the online cricket show Pace is Pace Yaar. He tweets here

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Keywords: Captaincy, Tactics

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Posted by   on (August 14, 2014, 3:59 GMT)

leave batting on one side Misbah have sofar failed to develop a fast bowling pair. Instead of playing real fast bowlers he relies more on medium pacers because of economy factor. Also he has failed to introduce a leg spinner in three years of his captaincy. Leg spinners are very important in winning matches especially in a country like Australia... remember the 92 world cup.. he relies too much on Ajmal but off spinners are less likely to excel in Australia.... remember Murali...

Posted by mzm149 on (August 13, 2014, 13:44 GMT)

I loved that sentence: "The opening slots are still a carousel." I don't remember that same pair of openers was used in more than two consecutive test matches during the last 3 or 4 years. How can we then develop them? Poor Taufeeq Umar, Nasir Jamshed, Shan Masood and Imran Farhat are the victims. I hope Ahmed Shehzad survives this torture.

Posted by   on (August 13, 2014, 6:31 GMT)

misbah or younus man of the match 2nd test sure misbah is team builder ,pak bowlers are not good this time. .plz 5bowler in 2nd test squad ,team bolling line up is weak point team .misbah king

Posted by   on (August 13, 2014, 4:34 GMT)

It is simple! We are lacking 2 genuine fast bowlers. We are not a spinner dependent team and will languish until we find another Imran, Wasim, Waqar or Shoaib. Only hope is that Amir upon his return in 2015 can retain his form and fitness and can support Junaid who is becoming a better bowler day by day.

Posted by mrhamilton on (August 13, 2014, 2:00 GMT)

Marvellous article.really fine writer.misbah can captain till 43.just umer akmal must be given a chance.and when aamir returns the very lacklustre Pakistani fast bowling will be enhanced

Posted by Captain_Tuk_Tuk on (August 12, 2014, 18:38 GMT)

I think its about time Misbah should pass captaincy to Yonis Khan who is better captain and much more experience as well as younger than Misbah-ul-haq who is almost 40 now.

Posted by t20cric on (August 12, 2014, 17:02 GMT)

I always knew Misbah's overly defensive approach was holding the team back and now with this article that has been proved with numbers. I think the problem is that team Misbah is now so used to batting slowly that it becomes second nature for them to go back to that approach. For example look at Asad Shafiq's strike rate in all 3 formats, tests:41.87, ODI:69.41, T20:103.78. His SR is below par in all 3 formats because he just doesn't know how to or is scared to attack. When naturally attacking players come into the team then they end up slowing down and cuz of that their form suffers (Ahmed Shehzad, Nasir Jamshed, Sohaib Maqsood, Umar Akmal). Misbah needs to let everyone play their natural game and if they're too slow then get accumaltors like Fawad Alam in the team or attacking batsmen like Umar Akmal.

Posted by   on (August 12, 2014, 14:22 GMT)

Since 2010, we have seen four different coaches, multiple shifts in the team management and selectors. Two things haven't changed. The core of our batting line-up(which reads Azhar, Younis, Misbah and Asad) and the captain himself. Very rarely a Pakistani captain is given such a free hand on the team and that too for the fourth year running. Still the batsmen bat with the same negative frame of mind as they used to do back in November 2010. The mantra has been to block block hit and then get out. The captain and his batters are lucky enough to be playing 95% of their cricket on docile wickets like Galle or Abu Dhabi but still they are unable to score freely. Blessing in disguise that we don't have an away tour coming up shortly, otherwise we would dish up scores like 49 which we saw in Jo'berg. Positivity to flow from the top to the bottom but I don't see that happening under Misbah.

Posted by aminur3095 on (August 12, 2014, 13:39 GMT)

This article is absolutely a pleasure to read,very well written indeed. I believe everyone who follows Pakistan Cricket will agree with the Author. This is the perfect time to be more aggressive and the team has the ability to be so, of course. At the same time Misbah should definitely be appreciated by everyone like the author for what he has already done for his country going out of the flamboyant tradition of Pakistan but change in tactics is in order now.

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