Fast forward Ashes reaches its final instalment with WTC points at stake

Had you canvassed England's touring fans back in November (and bearing in mind the horrors they have witnessed in Australia over the past 15 years) it's hard to imagine many would have been truly gutted at the prospect of a 3-2 Ashes defeat. At the very least, that scoreline would have implied competitiveness, belief, enduring optimism … maybe even a Gazza's tears-style denouement, with Ben Stokes and Joe Root leading a proud lap of honour at the SCG after the sort of heartbreak from which legends are forged.

This looming scenario, on the other hand … this is not what the prognosticators would have ordered. Clearly we're getting ahead of ourselves even to contemplate the absurdity that England could win back-to-back Tests in Australia after losing 16 of their previous 18. But supposing they did, from the depths to which this tour had descended? Then what? Would the players be permitted to take pride in their bouncebackability, or would they forever lament the fecklessness that wrecked their previous visions of glory? Perhaps a fourth defeat out of five would be the more merciful death; final, definitive proof that the notion of winning back the Ashes in Australia was only ever a delusion.

And what of Australia, themselves so triumphant after Adelaide, having ransacked Bazball in a mere 11 days of action? Leading into the fourth Test, the chance to inflict a third whitewash in six home Ashes had been a very real and compelling incentive for a squad that had been derided as Australia's "worst" since 2010-11. Now, however, that notion has been banished, and in uncompromising fashion, following a two-day loss at the MCG that has cost Cricket Australia an eight-figure sum, and has drawn overdue scrutiny on a side whose cracks England had so manifestly failed to exploit at the sharp end of the series.

Admittedly, some of that scrutiny has been mitigated by Usman Khawaja's decision to call time on an 88-Test career. Fifteen long years ago, Khawaja made his Australia debut in the fifth and final Ashes Test at Sydney - a fixture that, until last week, had been England's most recent success in the country. Now, at the age of 39, and after a wild mid-series reprieve at Adelaide, he's read the runes and decided to take final control of his story.

His departure will guarantee some degree of turnover come the end of Australia's campaign, although it's hard to imagine that Khawaja alone will be missing when these teams next convene in 2027. Travis Head's moments of magnificence have masked an unusually fallible batting line-up, while we're already contemplating an Ashes series in which Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Nathan Lyon managed an effective net contribution of two appearances out of 15. As for the two men who have shouldered the burden in their absence, Mitchell Starc and Scott Boland will both be closer to 40 than 35 by then.

As for England, though Ashes tours tend to mark more ends than beginnings, there's been a sense - certainly in the aftermath of the MCG win - that more of this squad's structure will remain intact than their early-tour performances perhaps warrant.

Stokes, for one, has indicated he wants to stay on as captain, while his endorsement of Brendon McCullum has offered the coach some cover in the short term, at least, as his methods come under more sustained scrutiny than at any time in his tenure.

On the personnel front, if the end of the road has surely been reached for Mark Wood, then Josh Tongue, Brydon Carse and the injured Gus Atkinson all look set to be central to their seam-bowling plans for some time yet - as indeed will Jofra Archer, assuming his body remains as willing as his heart has been since his improbable return to the Test fray.

What any of this means for the immediate challenge at Sydney is anyone's guess. There are WTC points up for grabs of course - a carrot that, as ever, seems to matter more to Australia given that England's hopes of a maiden final are once again looking forlorn. But in real terms, the difference between 4-1 and 3-2 really doesn't feel as relevant as it would have done in any other context. Clearly, even England's moral victories have lost their lustre on this trip, with the terms of success and failure so clearly delineated from the outset.

Australia LWWWW(last five completed Tests, most recent first)
England WLLLL

Khawaja's impending departure will be a handy smoke-screen for Australia's misfiring batters, but the focus will shift soon enough once he is gone, and Marnus Labuschagne in particular may soon be wondering if his story has changed at all since the tour of the Caribbean in July, when he was first forced to contemplate the mortality of his career. He started the Australian summer with a stunning burst of Sheffield Shield form, and just about carried that forward with a pair of important fifties in the first two Tests of the series. But his failure to kick on since has been notable. His current average of 24.85 is his lowest for a series in which he's played more than two Tests. Another pair of failures in Sydney will intensify those mounting doubts.

With England once again reeling at 8 for 3 at Melbourne, Harry Brook's opening gambit - a wild charge and swish at thin air - suggested he had taken leave of his senses. By the end of that crazy contest, however, even his naysayers were grudgingly acknowledging the wisdom of his approach. He was the only batter on either side to make more than 50 runs across two innings, and he did so by trusting his eye, and seeking to cash in before his number came up on a capricious surface. So, on the one hand, Brook can claim to have played a key hand in a Test victory in Australia (which is more than Joe Root has yet achieved). On the other hand, he enters the final Test of his maiden Ashes tour knowing that the Aussies have yet to see him at his very best. In four years' time, he may well be back as captain. If ever there was a time to lay down a marker for future engagements, it is now.

Khawaja's decision to call time on his Test career has effectively guaranteed that Australia's top six will stay the same for this final match of the series, thus deferring any thoughts about the future, with their next Test engagement still eight months away. The bigger decision centres on the role of Cameron Green, who featured as low as No.8 at the MCG, and whose returns with the bat have been heading in the same direction all series long. Beau Webster, who has done nothing wrong since impressing against India last year, might be worthy of a token outing in his place. On the bowling front, the potential switch would be the spinner Todd Murphy for the seamer Jhye Richardson, who failed to seize the moment in his first Test for four years, although Steven Smith sound far from convinced of the need for a spinner the day before the game. Even in a series where spin has taken a backseat, at the SCG that would be quite something. According to statistician Adam Morehouse, the last occasion Australia didn't field a frontline spinner at the ground was 1887-88.

Australia (possible): 1 Jake Weatherald, 2 Travis Head, 3 Marnus Labuschagne, 4 Steven Smith (capt), 5 Usman Khawaja, 6 Alex Carey (wk), 7 Cameron Green, 8 Michael Neser, 9 Mitchell Starc, 10 Todd Murphy/Jhye Richardson, 11 Scott Boland

Gus Atkinson is England's enforced change, having suffered a hamstring injury while bowling during the Melbourne Test. with Matthew Potts set to replace him. Shoaib Bashir also waits in the wings and could be handed a first outing of the series if the surface is deemed liable to spin. Will Jacks, the utility selection, has held his place since Brisbane, though more through the persistent shortcomings of the top seven than through his own prowess as an offspinner (four wickets at 61.50).

England (probable): 1 Zak Crawley, 2 Ben Duckett, 3 Jacob Bethell, 4 Joe Root, 5 Harry Brook, 6 Ben Stokes (capt), 7 Jamie Smith (wk), 8 Will Jacks, 9 Brydon Carse, 10 Matthew Potts, 11 Josh Tongue

After the dramas at the MCG, all eyes are on the lawnmower man. Curator Adam Lewis has set his blades at a conservative 6mm (compared to a hairy 7mm for India's visit last year, but significantly shorter than the 10mm that caused such havoc on Boxing Day). He has declared himself "comfortable" with the state of the preparations, although has probably not had the amount of warm sunshine he would have hoped for during the lead-in days. There are showers and storms forecast for the opening day (which should, at least, guarantee a third day), a few more on the second but settled weather after that.

"Ashes were done at 3-0, weren't they? Test cricket now, with the Test Championship, every game's important. So, for us, we view it as that. It was disappointing last week to go down. We were outplayed at the back end of that game. So hopefully we can turn it around here and win this series 4-1. And now, more importantly, I suppose, just win a Test in the Test Championship cycle."
Steven Smith

"There shouldn't be any reason for anyone to get individual or insular about what they want to do this week. As soon as someone starts thinking about their own performances it becomes quite easy to see through. I think it's one thing I've managed to get into this group is that everything you do, think, say is always about what's best for the team and not yourself. So whoever goes out there this week, everything they do and every decision they make will be about what the team needs."
Ben Stokes