Rabada: 'You cannot say that there's a favourite in this tournament'

Popular opinion ahead of this year's T20 World Cup is that co-hosts India are the favourites to win it, on the back of the immense form in the format, and that it is going to be a boon for batters, but Kagiso Rabada has never been one to walk down well-trodden paths. He chose the scenic route, not only in suggesting the field is far more open than India's nine series wins since their T20 World Cup triumph in 2024 makes it seem, but also in his assertion that bowlers may not have it that bad after all.

"You cannot say that there's a favourite in this tournament. I think it's up for grabs. Anyone can take it. We'll be putting our hand up for that for sure. I'm not too sure what's going on in the Indian camp. This tournament is right open," Rabada said to close off a media interaction in Ahmedabad, where South Africa will play their first three group matches.

He started it by answering a question about the surfaces in India; they have become so flat that the big question pre-tournament is whether a team will top 300, and all but poured cold water on the idea. "It's India, there are small grounds, the ball skids on and when dew comes, it makes it even worse. But in ICC events, from what I've seen, not all games will be high scoring. You'll get venues that will be high scoring from time to time, but I don't think all pitches would be that way," he said. "Especially in ICC events, you'll see that there will be something for the bowlers every now and then."

The last ICC event in India that Rabada was part of was the 2023 ODI World Cup, which was played at different times of year (October-November) and was also talked up as being a batting record-breaker. In total, there were three totals over 400 (by South Africa, New Zealand and India) and two of 399. While there was decent bounce and movement overall, bowlers suffered with the worst economy rate since in ODI World Cup history - 5.73 - and the third-worst average across World Cups.

The evidence suggests that the trend will continue, especially where South Africa will play the bulk of the tournament, Ahmedabad. The average first-innings score in eight T20Is at the venue is 189, and that jumps to 230 in the last four matches. Since 2024, it is India's second-highest scoring ground (of the venues being used at this World Cup), after Delhi. Incidentally, the rest of South Africa's tournament takes place at the Arun Jaitley Stadium. Expecting anything other than big runs seems futile but Rabada does have his reasons.

He also pointed to the success pace bowlers have had in Ahmedabad, where they are responsible for 75% of T20I wickets and which explains why South Africa have loaded their squad with quicks. They have six including Rabada - allrounders Marco Jansen and Corbin Bosch, and specialist seamers Lungi Ngidi, Kwena Maphaka and Anrich Nortje. All of them bowled in the warm-up match against India, which South Africa lost so there's no telling how they may line up come match day one but its guaranteed to be pace-heavy.

"We weren't trying to really be strategic. It was just more for the individual players to kind of get a feel of what they wanted to do and announce themselves into the tournament, so to speak," Rabada said. "We do certainly have a lot of pace, so it's about understanding how we're going to combine that with the slower bowling that we've got and use that to the best effect. Let's see what the conditions hold for us. Ahmedabad is known for wickets that will suit fast bowling. There are different soils. There's red soil, there's black soil. Normally, the red soil is the bouncier soil. We just need to take that into account and understand how best we're going to put everything together."

Rabada feels South Africa, and several other teams, have what it takes to do that, not least because all of their attack have spent time playing T20s in India. "A lot of overseas players who have played in the IPL are not as foreign to the conditions as they might have been in the past. That's what the leagues have done. The guys are really in tune with the conditions."

South Africa will have a chance to prove Rabada right when they take on Canada on Monday, followed by Afghanistan and New Zealand on Wednesday and Saturday. Before they even get to Delhi, they could know whether or not they will progress to the Super Eights. If they do, according to the pre-tournament, it's back to Ahmedabad, most likely to play India and West Indies and then a return to Delhi for a possible match-up with Australia before the knockouts.

As for those pesky one-offs, nobody needs to ask Rabada how important it is to win a white-ball World title, especially after he played an instrumental role in South Africa lifting the Test mace last June. That triumph ended decades of what-ifs and proved South Africa could overcome pressure. It also gave them the confidence that they can do it again, albeit with a couple of tweaks.

"What we've done in the past will most definitely give us motivation and belief that we can do it again," he said. "In saying that, this is a new tournament, but it doesn't mean that you can't take any confidence away from what you've done in the past. As players, when you are going through a tough patch, you'll go back and look at what you've done well in the past, because when you are doing well, you don't really think about what's happening. As soon as you start doing poorly, you start to think about all the things that you could be doing wrong. The best reference is to look at yourself when you are at your best and then ask yourself a few other questions for you to actually move forward."