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Betting Blog

Nothing between the teams ahead of SA-Aus showdown

Australia's Test tour of South Africa gets underway in Durban on Thursday, and there is next to nothing to split the teams

Lungi Ngidi holds up the ball, acknowledging the cheers for his six-for, South Africa v India, second Test, Centurion, day five, January 17, 2018

Lungi Ngidi holds up the ball  •  Lee Warren/Getty Images

Australia's Test tour of South Africa gets underway in Durban on Thursday, and there is next to nothing to split the teams. Two of the most powerful seam attacks in the world, set to go head to head on some of the sportier decks you could hope to encounter in the five-day game. It promises to be a show to savour.
On paper at least, Australia are ever-so-slender favourites, according to Bet365. They start the series at 5/4 for overall victory, against South Africa's 6/4, with the draw arguably the value bet at 7/2 (especially when you consider how few draws there have been in contests involving these two teams recently).
But if you're in the business of predicting a correct score, then good luck picking the bones out of this one Australia and South Africa are both 40/1 to win the series 1-0. Australia are 5/1 to win 2-1, compared to South Africa's 11/2. A 3-1 win is 13/2 and 15/2 respectively; 4-0 is 16/1 and 20/1. It really is too close to call at this stage.
And that evenness is reflected in the individual odds. If there is any one player who could make the difference, it is surely Australia's captain, Steven Smith, whose three hundreds in the Ashes were instrumental in sending England spiralling to a 4-0 defeat. He is 13/2 to be Man of the Match in Thursday's series opener, ahead of Mitchell Starc at 8/1. But with AB de Villiers (9/1), Hashim Amla (10/1) and Vernon Philander (11/1) all in the mix as well, the balance of power is hard to identify.
Perhaps it might be more interesting to think further outside the box. Lungi Ndigi, for instance, is a distance 20/1 for the Man of the Match award, despite claiming precisely that accolade on debut against India at Centurion in January. If he cranks up the heat once more, who knows what he might achieve against Australia?