India's Test debacle: outbowled, outbatted and out-tossed too

India's dismal home run over the last 13 months - five defeats in seven Tests - has evoked strong reactions from fans and pundits, and justifiably so - it's a shocking string of results for a team which has been near-unbeatable at home for over a decade. In fact, the last time they lost five out of seven Tests at home was around 65 years ago, between 1956 and 1959, against Australia and West Indies.

India have lost five home Tests in just over 13 months now, but their previous five defeats spanned more than 11 years, from December 2012 to January 2024. During this period, they won 36 out of 49 matches, drawing just eight. Add the six Tests they won after the last of those losses, and their record improves to a stunning 42-5 over a 12-year period going into the New Zealand series. Their win-loss ratio of 8.4 was the best among all teams at home in this phase.

Three of their five losses came against England, but they also beat them seven times, while the only other team they lost to was Australia (8-2 in 12 Tests). Against New Zealand and South Africa, they had a combined record of 10-0 in 12 Tests in this period.

So what are the factors that have combined to produce such a wretched run?

India lost the toss in four of those five defeats; the only exception was in Bengaluru against New Zealand, when they misread the conditions horribly, opted to bat first, and got bundled out for 46. There was no coming back from that debacle, even though they scored 462 in their second innings.

Losing the toss and bowling first has denied India the opportunity to capitalise on favourable conditions with both bat and ball: their bowlers, especially spinners, have bowled when the pitches are at their flattest, and the batters have often faced difficult fourth-innings conditions. However, that still doesn't explain the recent capitulations. In the period between December 2012 to September 2024, India lost the toss and fielded first 26 times, but still managed a stunning 19-3 record in those games, including 14-3 in 21 matches against Australia and England. Overall when they lost the toss at home in this period, they won 20 out of 28 Tests, and lost just three.

Simon Harmer's 17 wickets at 8.94 has dominated the headlines in the aftermath of South Africa's stunning wins, and rightly so: no overseas spinner has ever taken 10 or more wickets in a series in India at a better average. More interestingly, the next best in this list is Mitchell Santner's 13 wickets at 12.07, in New Zealand's triumph last year.

Those numbers illustrate how overseas spinners have dominated India's batters in the two series. Ravindra Jadeja has been India's leading spinner with 26 wickets at 21.69, but overall, India's spinners have clearly been second-best, averaging 26.29 compared to 20.25 by the opposition. The difference was especially stark in the South Africa series, where India's spinners averaged 30.57 compared to 15.48 by the South Africans.

However, the difference hasn't only been in the spin department. The overseas seamers have dominated too, averaging 17.51 to India's 32.71 in these two series. Marco Jansen was terrific in both Tests, taking 12 wickets at 10.08, while Matt Henry and Will O'Rourke finished with sub-20 averages too, though they were aided by extremely helpful conditions in Bengaluru.

A comparison with India's previous 19 home Tests - when they had a 14-3 win-loss record - shows that India have lost both the spin and pace battle over the last year. In those 19 Tests, India's pacers and spinners conceded about 14 fewer runs per wicket than the opposition bowlers. The tables have turned now, with the difference being even starker for the pacers.

With both pace and spin being so dominant for the overseas teams, it's obvious that the batting numbers for India will look dire in these two series. Shubman Gill (148 runs at 37) and Washington Sundar (213 at 35.50) are the only batters averaging over 35 in these two series, while Rishabh Pant is the only one with 300-plus runs (310 at 31). Sarfaraz Khan is the only centurion in these two series, but his other five innings fetched him 21 runs.

The numbers for India's top seven batters in the five Tests paint a gloomy picture: an average under 22, with only one century in 70 innings. The opposition top seven were more than 50% better, average 33.11 in those matches. It was also a steep fall compared to India's batting numbers between 2021 and '24, when they averaged over 38, and struck 17 centuries in 221 innings.

The defeats to New Zealand derailed India's prospects of making the WTC final in the previous cycle; the 2-0 loss to South Africa might do the same in the current edition.