The dropped catch that gave Kings XI Punjab a fighting chance

Chris Gayle rode his luck against the Rajasthan Royals and nearly got his 23rd T20 hundred in the process. It would have perhaps been the chanciest of Gayle's hundreds, given that 20 of his runs came from shots of which he was not in total control. According to ESPNcricinfo's ball-by-ball data, only one innings had more runs scored off not-in-control shots in this IPL season - the Mumbai Indians' Ishan Kishan's 99 against the Royal Challengers Bangalore.

The Kings XI Punjab had been short of luck in the first half of the season, and were perhaps due a stroke, or two, of good fortune. That lucky break came in the form of Riyan Parag dropping Gayle early in his innings in the fourth over of the Kings XI innings. Gayle was batting on 10 from eight balls at the time. He went on to score 87 runs from 54 balls after that.

ESPNcricinfo's Luck Index reckoned that the drop cost the Royals 26 runs. According to the algorithm in use, the Kings XI's batting order to follow would have managed only 63 runs from those 54 balls that Gayle faced after the drop. This is estimated to be lower than what Gayle actually ended up scoring because of the fact that Glenn Maxwell and Deepak Hooda are not in the best of form and the Kings XI were playing with a longish tail in this match.

This estimation is done distributing the balls that Gayle faced after the drop among the batsmen who weren't dismissed yet - Maxwell and Hooda in this case - and if necessary, those who didn't bat in the innings. (This calculation takes into account the expected balls that each batsman is likely to play, based on their quality.)

The drop may not cost the Royals dear considering the fact that chasing has become easier of late because of the dew factor, but the drop did help the Kings XI put a fighting total on the board.