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Luck Index - Umpire's call adds 20 runs to Mumbai's total

Luck Index estimates that the umpire's call on the lbw shout against Keiron Pollard could have played a significant hand

With a place in the playoffs at stake in the match against Mumbai Indians, Sunrisers Hyderabad couldn't have hoped for a better start to the match. They won the toss and put Mumbai into bat - a significant advantage given how dew has been a big factor of late. With this match not being of any consequence to Mumbai, they opted to rest their best bowlers this season Jaspirt Bumrah and Trent Boult. If that weren't enough Sunrisers had Mumbai on the mat at five down for 82 runs in the 13th over. The match was following an almost ideal script for the Sunrisers.
Until the 15th over of Mumbai's innings. Rashid Khan came on to bowl the last over of his spell. In the absence of Hardik Pandya - who was also rested for this match - Mumbai had their last recognized pair in the middle. Getting one of either Keiron Pollard or Ishan Kishan would've have further tilted the scales in favour of the bowling team. Rashid - being the champion bowler he is - created opportunities to dismiss both. However, both batsmen survived his over. Kishan was dropped by the bowler himself and Pollard survived a close lbw shout on the basis of umpire's call.
While Kishan's drop didn't cost Sunrisers big, ESPNcricinfo's Luck Index reckons that given the batting that was to come, Mumbai would've scored 20 runs fewer had umpire C Shamshuddin given Pollard out on the last ball of Rashid's over. Pollard, who was on six off ten balls, went on to score 41 off 25. He plundered 35 runs off the 14 balls that he faced after that event. Luck Index estimates that Mumbai's remaining batsmen would've got just 15 runs from those 14 balls. That is so because Mumbai went on to lose Kishan shortly after, and had they lost Pollard as well, it would have left the task of securing Mumbai a defendable total to Nathan Coulter-Nile - a bowling allrounder in T20s - and their tail.
Luck Index estimates the impact of the decision by distributing the balls that Pollard faced after the event among the batsmen who weren't dismissed and if necessary, those who didn't bat in the innings. (This calculation takes into account the expected balls that each batsman is likely to play, based on their quality.)
If the umpire's decision had favoured Sunrisers they would've been chasing 130 instead of 150 in this high-stakes match that will decide whether they progress to the playoff of IPL 2020.