Little point doubling up

The Ashes always throws up a bunch of specials bets with the bookmakers and the forthcoming series is no different, with one in particular standing out, for me at least.

A lot has been made of the relative weakness of the Australia bowling attack but that doesn't mean the batsmen are going to have things all their way either. Getting massive scores, especially individually, still requires enormous dedication and no small amount of luck.

Bet365 are offering a market on whether any individual player will score a double-century in the series and I have to admit that initially, I thought the answer would be yes. In a five-Test series, surely someone would get to that mark?

But on closer inspection, the 11/10 on offer for someone to do it is actually very meagre in terms of value and instead the 8/11 on it not happening looks the bet to take. In the past 12 Ashes series, it's only happened in four of them. Admittedly, it did occur in 2006/7 and 2002/3, but I think that's a misleading statistic when placed over time.

You have to take into account that Brisbane and Melbourne are not easy grounds to score on and though Adelaide is considered to be a batsman's track, the average number of runs scored in recent Tests there is less than in Sydney, which, like Perth, takes spin. So scoring big runs is never going to be easy.

Moreover, three of the four double-hundreds scored over the past 12 Ashes series were by Australians and unless Ricky Ponting or Michael Clarke go nuts, it's tough to see any of the others getting stuck in long enough to do it. On England's side, Paul Collingwood managed 200 exactly in 2006/7 while most of the top six are more than capable, but doing it under the microscope of an Ashes contest is another matter altogether.

In the end, it's far more likely - statistically and logically - that no one manages it, so snap up the 8/11 for it's far better value than the other way around.

Bowlers could be good value
Bet365 are also offering 3/1 that any player takes 10 wickets in one Test and this is also an interesting market. Taking 10 of the 20 wickets to fall is no mean achievement, and it didn't happen the last time these two met, in 2006/7, and that despite the fact that Australia routed England 5-0 and were therefore ripping through the England batting order.

However, those of you who might think the 2/9 for no one to take 10 wickets in any Test may want to go a little further back. In the previous four Ashes series held in Australia, 10 wickets in a match was achieved in each one. Now some of that was because Glenn McGrath did it once, but Andy Caddick managed it, as did Stuart MacGill, Craig McDermott and Bruce Reid, none of whom will go down as a truly great bowler. At odds of 3/1, it could be a very nice bet, especially as neither side is immune to the odd collapse.