Put them in at your peril

In the past decade-and-a-half, Ashes post mortems have reminded us about Mike Gatting being the last English captain to win a series against Australia. But Gatting was the last captain to do something else. In the Boxing Day Test of 1986, he won the toss and sent Australia in, and watched Gladstone Small and Ian Botham bundle Australia out for just 141. That set up a thumping Ashes-winning victory for England, by an innings and 14 runs; and it was the last time Australia lost a match at home when they were sent in to bat.

If Marvan Atapattu had checked the stats for teams inserting Australia, post 1986, he would have come across the figure of 389. That's the average Australian score when they have been asked to take first strike in a home Test since 1987. Seven times out of 19, they have scored more than 400 and neither the pitch nor the bowling has caused any problems.

Atapattu's predicament today was pretty similar to Nasser Hussain's at the Gabba in 2002-03, but there have been many more captains whose decisions have backfired. Interestingly out of the 19 instances of Australia being put in, 12 have come in the first Test of the series - and Australia have won seven of them.

Sri Lanka have won just six matches out of 21, after asking the opposition to bat (and three of those instances were against Zimbabwe).

If we take a look at all teams from the beginning of 1987, Australia are streets ahead of the rest when it comes to their win-loss ratio, home and away, when put in. In 31 matches they have won 16 and lost just three (a ratio of 5.33). Sri Lanka stand in sixth spot, with 0.62, while India are way down in ninth spot with a win-loss ratio of just 0.10.

So the moral of the story is: if you are a numbers man - or even if you aren't - don't ever send these Aussies in.